Bubblicious

POP! No..not quite yet…but close.The S&P has reached a new high, up 200% less than 5yrs post the “great-recession” of our time...and it's not just the US..FTSE All world index is also up 150% since March 2009. What's that you ask? What crisis? Exactly. Sure, we all enjoy living in a bubble, one that the Fed has gladly blown larger and larger akin to an excited teenager testing the limits of their watermelon-flavoured-bubble-gum, pumping once mind-boggling sums of cash into the petrified financial system. We all love the good times when dancing around in the midst of seemingly endless quantities of monetary protection, relishing the cloak of invincibility, oblivious once again to the potential impending disaster of lackadaisical activity in the world’s still fragile financial markets…but nothing lasts forever – just ask Christine Lagarde. Who would have thought that Dominic Strauss Khan – when sat in his NYC holding cell ashamed by his lust for room (ahem) service with a twist – would have the last laugh..ahh..the wonderful manner in which time always turns the tables.

Hence this piece is predicting a global correction before the end of 2014..but one that will slightly dampen the moods of only those that have been lucky (prudent?) enough to make use of the unprecedented and non-symmetrically focused monetary easing.

Plenty have questioned this approach over the years, plenty will continue to do so. It seems we have only papered over the cracks in an otiose effort to protect the common investor whilst selectively rekindling the risk-loving appetite of the upper-echelons of the wealth-class – is it really fair that 70% of home-owners continue to suffer from negative equity when the likes of Bill Ackman generate new billion-figure profits in just 3 months (the wiley investor managed to grill-himself a handsome $200m in just one day from Burger King’s buy-out) and Buffet’s share price equates to a studio appartment? Hmmm..something is off in this “recovery”. The new world of income disparity we find ourselves in has brought gauges such as the Vix to a seven-year low. Given the feeble state many of the world’s largest economies still find themselves in, this unrestrainedly comfortable approach to investing is illogical. As we all know (yet somehow still ignore) once the warm embrace of these Central Bankers begins to unravel, leaving investors to stand alone in this new financial world environment, the shivering will commence, with risk of many submitting to hypothermia at the shock of being left out in the cold.

For now though, the rich out there are simply not frightened. Cozy and warm in fact they appear. Witness the unbounded joy they express in throwing money into risky asset classes, deceptively unworried by the illusion of a protector in the form of political redress. Those that were cash-rich in 2008 have been disproportionately rewarded for doing what they do anyway..great gig if you can get it! The not-so-rich are confused as to what exactly is going on and simply not participating. Central Bankers are faaaar too relaxed it appears, even Draghi has the gaul to crack a smile during his press conferences – ominous signs all around!

The operose discussions surrounding much of the financial industry were once eagerly followed by even those with zero interest in their bank accounts (pun intended) – that has quickly dissipated as we have returned to less weighty subjects of interest for the masses…such as ice-water being thrown over “celebs”…a worthy original cause, now flyblown by the facetiousness of social-media. Recent capital raises by China’s banks, barely noticed despite the eye-watering amounts (>$50bn in the last several months) indicating a subtle attempt at dealing with otherwise extremely worrying non-performing loans. Asset-price inflation and general madness in Africa manifesting itself with $1,500/night rates for barely 2* hotels in Angola (where there are commodities, there are Chinese and price-hikes!). Latin American nations are mixed between recovery (Colombia) and bankruptcy (Argentina) with standards of living beguiling for what we term 1^st world nations.   

Are we really as safe as we believe? It is not meant for the hard-working individual looking to provide a decent quality of life for his family to worry about when Yellen will raise rates or how many members of the Bank of England’s MPC abstained in the recent vote..but a worrying degree of apathy has returned to the global conscience as far as the financial markets are concerned. Recent stock performances indicate a plethora of only wealthy investors taking part and taking away all the profits to boot!

This is not equality at is finest, the silver-lining possibly only that when the elasticity of our current bubble is finally pushed beyond its natural gooey-limit, bursting in spectacular fashion, it will only splatter over the faces of those doing the blowing. The rich will become slightly less rich, the less well-off will be..well..they don’t really care do they? They were never part of the Fed’s plan in the first place, were overlooked by the ECB and totally ignored by the autocratic Chinese, left to deal with their own pay-cuts and extra working hours to fill the gap of placing bread on the kitchen table. With so little to show for the last 5 years anyway, the less well-off will thankfully come out of the next bubble splatter relatively unscathed.

We are in a very tricky period. There are those that understand we are currently floating in a bubble, there are those that know it yet avoid admitting it and there are (worryingly) those that remain oblivious. In this case, ignorance is not bliss. Central Banks must carefully figure out a way to embark upon the seismic shift from continued intensive care to general recovery.

As any patient knows, the real-pain comes after the initial dosage has been reduced and the tougher task of rehabilitation commences. Immense effort from all involved is necessary to transition from a bed-riddled economy to one that can stand-up of its own accord.

Shoving deliciously fruity, addictive bubble-gum in their mouth and hoping for the best, won’t stick.

Young Blood

The sun may be shining on the glitteringly bronzed bodies of much of the world’s self-proclaimed “elite”, lazing by the many pools dotted across the Mediterranean, sipping on premium alcohol as they thank their lucky stars for living in a part of the world where strife, violence and sheer inhumanity do not blight their every action..yet it’s depressing out there. Things look so bad even seasoned comedic actors are ending it all themselves rather than continue living in such an unjust world!..seriously though..Robin Williams, you were a genius of the comedy world and will be sorely missed.

Let’s have a brief look at what exactly is making us all so unable to enjoy the panoramic views from our Trip-Advisor selected sea-view suites…Iraq cannot admit its prime minister must go in order to save thousands of lives (anyone want to remind Maliki of the notion of self-sacrifice for the greater good?), ISIS (or ISIL..whatever they are being labeled at present by panic-waving Western media) continually threaten to bring those Hollywood disaster movies to life and create entire new territories overnight, Gaza (should that be imposed “concentration camp”) deplorably asphyxiated as they thrash for their lives bombarded by the very same belligerent force with one hand around their neck…modern media ensuring the true aggressor is increasingly unable to hide behind their clever PR machine. Ohh..we haven’t even mentioned Ebola…the tiny little potential problem of a disease that spreads as simply as breathing in at the wrong time an infected individual sneezes, rapidly escalating in number across Western Africa and now pitting the money hungry US pharmaceutical firms against the desperate and pleading medically-lacking nations attempting to avert catastrophic outbreaks. Global markets have rocked and rolled, thin liquidity exacerbating movements and likely making for some profitable trading if anyone is actually working (one can trade from their iPhone these days..pheww!). Most worryingly from a personal perspective…Lebanon thrown into fresh threats of fragmentation as sides must chose between a rather unattractive set of alternatives presented by its “leaders”. 

Natural disasters aside, this is one of the noisiest and bloody summers in recent memory. Where we normally prowl the papers for any news of interest in July/August, 2014 has presented an unwelcome cacophony, drowning out the pleasantness of the usual dulcet classical waffles from the Royal Albert Hall’s Proms. Seems our conductor this summer is filled with panic-inducing evil rather than creative spirit.

I have a proposition that may lessen the global malaise. A law should be passed ensuring global politicians are limited to the male population between the ages of 21-26, and the female population of 18-26 (women mature faster than men..no arguments here please..fact!). Why you ask? Simple really..age and so called “wisdom” have shown themselves to be hindrances on the global desire to progress and our species' ability to harmoniously cohabitate the very world we have been entrusted to. Just look around us..Lebanon and its poitical “elite” a perfect example in fact..the very same forces - in many instances even the very same protagonists - that instigated (and now continue) the atrocities of the civil war from 1975-1991, returning to positions of power amidst their own particular Sects, unable to bury deeply-dividing grudges and never truly forgiving and forgetting. The country (and general Levantine region) has moved forwards in only spits and spurts, constantly aware that the very underlying fabric of animosity still runs profound and veritably aggressive. Surely we would be better off if the old-guard were replaced with fresh faces and even fresher memories, untainted with the horrors of the past and only willing to push forwards. Ignorance, widely derided, can often bring bliss if mixed in the right context.

The viridity of youth versus the highfalutin hubris of wisdom may serve us better. Look around..the young are energetic, full of desire, wet-behind the ears with joy and values mixed with principles that would never be betrayed…well not yet at least..that’s the point. Smarter men out there know of the parable of the mountain climber and his donkey laden with provisions for the climb. As he steadily and mercilessly pushes the donkey along, intent on being the man to make it to the peak, he must drop a number of essential provisions-carrying-bags from the poor donkey’s tiring back – only to find himself at the conclusion of his seemingly successful summit bereft of any of the necessities he had initially accounted for – he may be at the top of the mountain, staring down at the rest from the peak..filled with pride and self-worth, but the road has left him with none of the essentials required to sustain a human soul.

The young still carry all these indispensables. They are happier, less jaded, unable to understand the bitterness that those older than them seem to carry, literally filled with the exuberance and allure of what the elders call naivety – the young do not recognise this trait as they are not filled with it. Sure, they will make mistakes, but those mistakes are no less rippling in their severity than the very same mistakes that are being made by so-called elder-statesmen the world over. A recent example that springs to mind was the positive and life-affirming manner in which JFK and his brother approached one of the world’s major crises in the Cuba Missile Crisis – would a wiser and more hell-bent-on-revenge-leader been able to diffuse such a situation?

The young are responsible for all the good that surrounds us today – they are the driving forces behind technological change and the notion of justice..rallying behind causes they feel strongly about and making their voices (or Tweets as it may now be) heard..all this before they have been burnt by scorn inducing “experience” several times in their lives to submit to the apparent “norm”. There is an invulnerability and sense of infinite potential for achievement amidst the youth – ensuring this can be tapped in positions of power may well serve us all better.

Would the world not be a better place with this type of approach behind the major powers? It would have to be universal – we do not want a couple of grey-haired, black-souled culprits hiding behind their dangerously attuned charismatic smiles and personas, lurking in corners of the world waiting to pour scorn and bitterness over the ideals of the youth surrounding them..envy is a terrible trait. We would need strict rules ensuring that once a certain youthful leader has been “compromised” (i.e. their heart broken due to unrequited love) they be removed from office, lest they direct their hardening hearts to more macabre ostentations of war. Young blood an effective panacea to streets running with bloody violence.

It truly might make for a more Utopian world to live in. Corporations and other facets of society can continue to operate with the sage minds of our elders, understanding trends and mistakes in an automated world of machinery is essential and hardened attitudes to dealing with product cycles a less harmful and more useful skill than a revenge-bent political leader with his finger-on-the-nuclear-trigger..unable to let go of the past and think more clearly of the future and the very aspirations of the young that he no longer represents. Would Gaza truly be bombarded with the same overzealous brutality if the Generals in Tel Aviv were the youth of the country?..cognisant of the fate of their own actions having grown up side by side with the very people they were condemning to death with the push of a button? Would the Chinese be so violent and apathetic towards the attitudes of the new generation if they themselves were the new generation? Would not the entire world embrace change and allow us to develop further and faster, with less hostility and negative influence and manipulation by the begrudged elders? 

The facts speak for themselves. Younger (by demographic) nations are more vibrant and successful if coupled with a strong enough education system. Younger enterprises staffed by the more open-hearted, open-minded and creatively adventurous are materialising our most awe-inspiring innovations..Silicon Valley and other areas of tech-wonder are blessed with the youthful influx of constant immigration, a double positive effect as hopes and young dreams beautifully collide.

The current political status quo may possibly be a blip in our civilisation..where we have provided too much emphasis and grandeur on the elite elder statesmen in the world of politics..we should look deeply into ourselves and remember what the point of being here in the first place is. The young certainly do, contemplating from a fresh, hereto untainted perspective. They are closer to it, they live it day-by-day..well at least until that day arrives where the music being played loses its lustre..then it’s time to simply replace with a younger mind. 

The circle of life…the closed circle of the global political elite would do well to mimic.

CiviLIESation

Given the summer lull and majority of usual readers being on holiday, a shorter than normal conversation piece, intended to elicit discussion whilst lounging by the pool or lunching on the yacht. Take a break from taking a break… 

What betrayal lurks within the one word we pride ourselves on as separating us - the "developed" human species - from the rest of the animal kingdom…long considered primitive and purely feral? Since the signing of the Magna Carta in 1215, laying down the foundation for laws we witness and abide by today in much of the Western world, we have called certain variations of collections of humanity “civilised”. Even further back, from the Persians, Greeks and Romans, each moment of human structure and triumph of institution over chaos has been met with the same word. 

What lies are we imposing upon ourselves though? Would we look back in 50 years from now and honestly call the world we witness as a portrayal of civilized society? From the more light-hearted observations of American tourists in (present day) Rome literally being laughed at to their faces by quite gleefully cheating waiters (instantly reducing prices by 80% when confronted by a more savvy Lebanese traveller), to the everyday atrocities unfolding across the Middle East, lives being cruelly stolen by the blood-stained hands of revenge hungry militia, battling for a cause they likely barely understand…the fabric of what once constituted a civil society is being tested to its core. 

How can we call ourselves civilised when the world is in such disarray? Wars raging, children starving and dying from lack of basic human resources. Some will reconcile that we are doing the best we can in a cruel world..that at least large swathes of the global population live within borders defined by peace and (relative) prosperity. That is not enough. The West has done what it can to lead in the way it knows best..plenty have been left behind however. 

Technology is the double-edged sword both pushing us forwards as a collective society and tearing us apart as a coherent social people. The “hands-off” approach of venting anger and disgust at the goings-on in Gaza, or the ridiculous sums awarded to former oligarchs at the expense of Russian pride ($50bn to former Yukos shareholders), has de-humanised much of the underlying suffering. It is not enough to simply indicate your concern, what has happened to actually doing something about it? Should not a “civilised” society act with more vigour to protect its own, rather than simply stand in the tech-halls of our modern day equivalent of the Roman Senate, decrying the beastly behaviour of those outside of the social norm. 

It’s awful out there. We are all to blame. Pointing the finger at those that have been elected (as well as those that have self-elected in a benign dictatorship) is simply not enough. We have the means to do so much more than ineffectually comment and “forward via WhatsApp” gruesome images intended to shock and provoke a vigorous two minute debate. What happens when the tapping of touch-screens falls silent? Do the bombs and rockets between Israel and Hamas miraculously stop? Do disease-riddled Africans desperate for the most natural of earth’s resource – water – receive instant bottled spring water? When the phone is placed on “Airplane Mode”..does the loss of life also go offline? 

There are dangerous similarities to the end of previous great perceived civilsations…people far more concerned with the frivolous and aesthetically pleasing than the profound and weighty. When images of some unknown “photo-bombing” of an unimportant celebrity enjoys more attention than true destructive munitions falling from the skies onto innocent civilians, or more people appear interested in whether Usain Bolt will run or not rather than if John Kerry has been able to make a cease-fire last longer than 24 hours, something must be considered awry. 

As many of us (relatively deservedly) enjoy reclining out there whilst sipping a fine crisp Gavi, gazing across the crystal clear waters whilst biting into deliciously milky buffalo mozzarella off some Mediterranean coast, representing what we consider a civilised species, we really ought to be doing more to avoid looking far too similar to the very animals we look down upon.

 

  

Checkmate!

What a surprise! Zeee Germans overpowered a number of nations in a global battle to rise to the top and dominate (sometimes obliterate) through efficiency and strength.. Oh..and they also won the World Cup!

Now that the World Cup is over, the world will resume it's cynical overview of terrible human events taking shape all across the hot spots that are suffering from the likes of the 1916 instigated Sykes-Picot unravelling, continued belligerence in the Levant and rising China tensions. The dangerous and potentially destructive game of chess continues amidst the globe's top powers.

We shall explore, intermittently (we all need some time-off!) during the summer lull all this great world has to offer and, with some gladly received feedback, write shorter but more frequent pieces.

Watch this space....
Hani Kobrossi

Shirts of Death

VOLTE FACE-ISIMOOOOoooo! No..not a shrieking-spine-tingling pure euphoric Latin American commentator's goal celebration, but the sheer unbelievably fascinating speed with which the world has all of a sudden announced Iran's return in from the geo-political cold.

The US are actually intending on partnering with Iran to counter ISIS's surge in Iraq. ISIS who you ask? Ahh..haven't you heard the world has a new foe? With a catchy iteration..ISIS is no less a creation of the West's failings than any of those groups that have caused such havoc before.

Oh the irony..not even fiction's greatest writers can outdo the splendour of political drama. Iran's role in the Middle East is due for a reset..watch this space as we dig deeper into understanding what this means for the GCC and Western relations with the Middle East in general.

ISIS is not only the newest created foe the West has unleashed on a suspecting yet still unduly suffering Middle East, it is also the most tech-savvy to date..making horrifying use of social media to literally terrorise the population of Iraq and its flabbergasted flailing Maliki-led "security forces" into psychological surrender. Relentless Tweets and video-posted real-life horrors (executions and intimidation) ironically play out the torrid use of Western tools intended to bring people closer together.

Much has been made of the (apparent) sudden thaw in US-Iranian relations, not to mention the UK's announcement of re-opening its Embassy in Tehran. Truth is - as any observer witnessing the discomfort of Saudi and UAE officials in recent months - it has been in the works for some time. Rouhani has simply provided the correct conduit to a plan that was likely in place pre-Ahmadinejad and itching to be put into place. As cynical as it may sound, ISIS's sudden appearance on the global-terror platform provides the perfect cover for this new relationship to flourish.

With half the world engrossed in a truly thrilling World-Cup..so much has been written of the demise of Spain with their now-derided tiki-caca, how lovely the Argentinian fan-base look in those tight blue-shirts, and the refreshing absence of any serious trouble across Brazil during the festivities, that it would do little to add anything of note here. However, whilst watching some of the recent footage from the no man's land of western Iraq, a macabre and effectually disillusioning image stuck in the mind..as soldiers were being marched off to their shallow graves for all the world to see, a number of international football shirts were immediately noticeable, an awful juxtaposition of world-renowned footballing stars' names on the back of these "Shirts of Death" - enough to make anyone sat comfortable believing the worst thing to bare presently is anxious anticipation of a magically thin England route through to the second round, almost choke on the uneasy realisation of indeed how fortunate they are relative to ills other less fortunate parts of the world continue to inflict upon themselves.

The Middle East and the Levant in particular have never been areas of calm and guiding lights of co-civilisation. The blessing of the raw natural beauty of the entire region, stretching from the eastern Mediterranean to the greens of Iraq's ancient river-banks, have been cursed with a perverse and animal-like hatred between a people unable to share and find the common ground to bind them together. Since the 2003 "liberation" of Iraq, a plethora of planning mistakes centre around the Sunni-Shia divide have been made and noted ceaselessly, what we are now witnessing are the first signs of those seeds that were not correctly planted, grotesquely growing into a mutated and destructive force. Will the the modern allied military powers act with concerted effort and now discover a sudden road to lasting peace? Obama's track-record does bode well for any future intervention, executive powers enacted or not. Congress is not the obstacle here, Saudi/GCC suspicions of the approaching Iranian long-dormant superpower-in-the-waiting will be the biggest roadblock to any swift and mercilessly smooth cessation of atrocities.

It would take an entire chapter to wade through the permutations of conclusive scenarios over the next crucial week of action in the Persian Gulf. Suffice to say we have entered a new paradigm - simply look at how the spike in Crude Oil (up from $100/brl to almost $115/brl in 72 hours) has come as a direct result of the US aircraft carrier (handily named USS G W Bush) entering once viewed treacherous waters through the Straits of Hormuz to potentially assist(!) Iran with an intervention to protect Baghdad and not the now-usefully forgotten aggressive act of deterring Tehran's nuclear programme. Thought relationships swivelled quickly in those frivolous Latin soap operas? - woaah..nothing ever compares to real-life drama.

Saudi, Turkey and other Sunni forces in the surrounding areas will be in overdrive, bending the ear of any lobbyist, major "encumbered" corporation and all other influential conduits to the US in a desperate bid to make sense of the incredibly rapid seismic shift in Tehran communications. If a properly effective co-ordinated response can be pieced together, we really may be onto a powerfully transformative period across the entire Middle East. No one is suggesting it will be a quick fix, yet bringing Iran in from the cold and having their commercially-minded and large (mainly secular) population an integrated part of the economic growth of the entire region will provide ample opportunity for those that currently have no hope of a bright future at least glimpse a dim light at the end of the long-tunnel of discussion. Much has been on hold since the revolution of 1979, comfortable allegiances are now going to have to adapt and alter. The GCC and others will either fall into line and reap the benefits of this greater co-operation, as indeed Dubai has done for many years now, or fight against an ultimately overpowering tide of change. Let's all hope it is the former.

One thing strikes cleanly through this geo-political mess: the people of Iraq, Syria and those surrounding nations have suffered unduly for the political and religious whims of others. They must be protected and given some semblance of a normal existence if this ugly and vicious self-fulfilling circle of hatred and retribution is to miraculously fan itself out. We have been in the midst of a 35yr war, from the outbreak of the internally sanctioned Lebanese civil war in 1977 to the belligerence witnessed now on a daily basis across the new arc of hatred. It was disgusting and immoral in 1977, it is only sadly now more noticeably evil given the medium of modern technology being used in the most hideous manner. Enough is enough, Not in the name of religion and not in the name of revenge.

In the modern land of Mesopotamia, the ancient phrase "if setting out on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" has mutated into generation-shaping images of hapless men digging their own shallow graves wearing national football shirts with other more blessed men's names emblazoned on their backs. Children caught up in this disgusting and human morality questioning mess should be watching the real football heroes striding into glorious goal nets, not their fathers walking to their inglorious deaths on the internet.

VOLTE FACE-ISSIMOOooooooo!!

No..not a shrieking-spine-tingling pure euphoric Latin American commentator's goal celebration, but the sheer unbelievably fascinating speed with which the world has all of a sudden announced Iran's return in from the geo-political cold.

The US are actually intending on partnering with Iran to counter ISIS's surge in Iraq. ISIS who you ask? Ahh..haven't you heard the world has a new foe? With a catchy iteration..ISIS is no less a creation of the West's failings than any of those groups that have caused such havoc before.

Oh the irony..not even fiction's greatest writers can outdo the splendour of political drama. Iran's role in the Middle East is due for a reset..watch this space as we dig deeper into understanding what this means for the GCC and Western relations with the Middle East in general.

To be continued...

Scarfacenomics

Capitalism and trade according to Toni Montana – “first jou gotta get the money, then jou get the power, then jou get the..”..ahhh..can’t publish that line here but rest assured it is something man has always strived to attain..and always shall struggle to!

Our iconic American dream anti-hero-Montana expressed a bewilderingly efficient entrepreneurial flair and killer instinct for spotting a gap in the market and filling it quite gladly with Yeyo (aka Cocaine - for those that maybe have never watched the likely most-quoted movie of all time), generating copious amounts of wealth for himself and those around him…it appears there are a great number of equally successful pharmaceutically inclined Europe-based entrepreneurs around to generate a buzz that is superlatively controversial, to say the least, in its lifting of national GDP. Latest EU regulations (now ESA rules require a number of illegal trading activities including narcotics, cigarettes and prostitution - where both sides willingly comply - to be included in EU member states’ calculations to provide a “clearer” picture of actual GDP and economic activity) have potentially inflated some countries’ GDP by as much as 5% (Sweden, Finland) and assisted other indebted nations (Italy) to more easily reach the imposed 3% Debt-to-GDP limit..increasing Italy’s GDP by 1.3% thanks to the omnipresent Mafia and incredibly fun-looking Bunga Bunga parties, makes keeping to the debt limit slightly easier for them this year..bene! Special thanks no doubt should be extended to supreme GDP contributor Berlusconi..even out of power, the jet-black-dyed-fox is still influencing the country’s political machinations..possibly single-handedly!

The UK would also handsomely benefit from the ESA change, with a potential 3%-4% bump in GDP, when all those nightclubs and celebrity restaurants’ true nocturnal activity behind the toilet doors are taken into account – not for nothing is there an urban myth that 95% of UK notes in circulation have traces of illegal substances. Does all of this really come as a surprise though? Most people living in such cities have a good understanding of what happens around them, how it happens and that is an accepted facet of society. After all, governments over time have decreed what actually constitutes this black market activity and the ingredients of such limitations to what one can get away with…errm..meant to say trade….vary from nation to nation..one man’s illegal cannabis distribution ring in Frankfurt is another’s “coffee shop” in Amsterdam (legal recordable revenue in the Netherlands). Interesting, as most illicit activity eventually works its way to supercar dealerships and restaurants anyway..doesnt it? The UK’s VAT and other indirect taxation methods should normally slurp up this excess. Judging by the blacked out vehicles that swiftly careen through the streets of the worlds greatest “tax-friendly” cities, bodyguards in tow, the thriving market often described as black but more colourful than many would give credit for, strengthens and underpins a great number of economic factors. Historical quirks and past venal corporate lobbying resulted in plenty of the current “illegal” landscape..some argue the only reason the ubiquitous coffee drinker is not risking a lengthy prison sentence is down to some powerful lobbying from self-interested growers in the late 1800s, whereas the hemp plant suffered ignominious defeat on the back of trumped up medical charges. Wherever you stand on the issue, the subjective nature of one man’s legal drug or activity leads to the very existence of the so called grey-side of the market and the reason there is room for Scarfacenomics.

We must also consider other nations that do not so honestly divulge the extent of industries that have forever existed and significantly contributed to not only the enjoyment of many its population but also the efficacy and size of its output. If we look at where most global corporate profit is generated it is normally from the addictive substances - drugs, alcohol, coffee and even these days an unhealthy addiction to the internet and the prevailing and time-shifting sin of vanity - people Tweet because they want others to see what they are doing (a reason people have made the DailyMail the world’s most visited online tabloid). It becomes compulsive, addictive and overall generally destructive. Is it really that terrible though that such large swathes of the Western population take joy out of something as simple as Rihanna’s barely-there dress..?..could think of worse things to be looking at. The truth remains that Scarfacenomics may be closer to the reality of doing business than we comfortably admit. Witness the furore surrounding the alleged corrupt practices of the future World Cup to be held (for now) in Qatar in 2022. Are we simply gawking at the unsavoury practice of “facilitation payments” considered the norm in the Middle East with envious bafflement that others did not think (or afford) to do the same, or genuinely incensed that such activity actually takes place – even though most are fully aware this is how large swathes of business gets done. These activities belie a greater problem..but just because we do not always see them does not mean they do not prolifically exist.

The general level of GDP attributed to such illicit activity is astounding on the surface but exceptionally difficult to truly calculate. Sarface’s protagonist would snort-for-joy, proud of the recognition and credit afforded to his business-building skills. He, like others before him, although rooted in reality rather than larger-than-life fictional characters, have long contributed to such global trade and value. We would likely have some of the world’s largest economies in some unsuspected destinations - lest you be a cognisant travelling businessman covering certain markets that is..especially such lovely and warm places of culture as the GCC (a little sarcasm), alongside certain Asian cities that spring to mind, where the level of extra-curricular activity is so densely concentrated in a few blocks that they may well constitute mini-superpower states on their own! The Middle East in particular would witness incredible skews in certain economic output were they to first even acknowledge the existence of some of their greatest illicit activities – spent any decent amount of time in a Dubai hotel lobby?..then you know what we’re talking about here..the level of hypocrisy that exists there boggles the mind.

One man’s crime is another man’s pay-check. Crime doesn’t pay, or at least that’s what teachers, parents and police forces around the world instil into most children from a very young age, repeating the mantra that there is no substitute for hard-work and honest, moral effort resulting in just rewards. Anyone taking a simple look around the streets of London, Monaco, Hong Kong and other hot-beds of welcoming banking systems and tax-havens will possibly hesitate mid sentence thrilled by the sounds of a passing super-car, engine revving at full scream (complete with requisite as-if-dealer-option-supplied peroxide blonde passenger with vacuous stare..also screaming), almost stumbling at the surprise and shock of realising the driver is barely old enough to legally drink (oh the irony) and wonder where exactly the black market punishment for such crimes is hitting hardest. We all know most people do work hard and live within the confines of the law. Fascination and near obsession with the criminal aspect of humanity though, with the glorification of such activity through books, movies and now slickly produced TV-series’, maintains an almost endearing affair and slightly sycophantic admiration for those on, seemingly, the wrong side of the law.

Rationalise the above with a report this week that Generation Z (16-25 year olds) is potentially the saviour of our economic malaise through clean living. Toni Montana would be appalled! Apparently less alcohol is being consumed and a significant fall in recreational drug-use is being witnessed. This may well be simply because there is not enough disposal income amongst the newer generation for frivolous spending and so many are quite concerned (obsessed) with how they look, bringing a certain narcissistic, yet medically welcome, result. Lack of job security and a greater negative stigma from viral social media also factors at play here.

Institutionalised corruption and preferentially legalised activity indubitably contribute significantly to the greater world economy. The other side of the legal divide, is simply a truth of the way we do business and what much of the population enjoy. Even great global tech firms like Apple and the late Steve Jobs display traits akin to Toni Montana’s insatiable appetite for success. Both would not have been able to realise the pinnacle of the American Dream without a little “creative thinking”. Apple’s latest announcements this week are timely reminders of the difficulty in maintaining a position atop a cut-throat competitive pyramid. If it wasn’t for the rather oblique working conditions that used to exist at Apple’s outsourced factory in China, it may not have been able to generate the massive mountain of cash that sits behind it and prohibits many would-be competitors from ever summoning the courage to take it on. Would proud US law-makers ever admit to such practices being tolerated..of course not. 

In a world of Scarfacenomics where mountains of cash are replaced with mountains of other substances, the Montana tag-line that echoes and prevails as a perfectly consistent reminder of the oblique nature of capitalist profit before morality…“I always tell the truth, even when I lie.”