VOLTE FACE-ISIMOOOOoooo! No..not a shrieking-spine-tingling pure euphoric Latin American commentator's goal celebration, but the sheer unbelievably fascinating speed with which the world has all of a sudden announced Iran's return in from the geo-political cold.
The US are actually intending on partnering with Iran to counter ISIS's surge in Iraq. ISIS who you ask? Ahh..haven't you heard the world has a new foe? With a catchy iteration..ISIS is no less a creation of the West's failings than any of those groups that have caused such havoc before.
Oh the irony..not even fiction's greatest writers can outdo the splendour of political drama. Iran's role in the Middle East is due for a reset..watch this space as we dig deeper into understanding what this means for the GCC and Western relations with the Middle East in general.
ISIS is not only the newest created foe the West has unleashed on a suspecting yet still unduly suffering Middle East, it is also the most tech-savvy to date..making horrifying use of social media to literally terrorise the population of Iraq and its flabbergasted flailing Maliki-led "security forces" into psychological surrender. Relentless Tweets and video-posted real-life horrors (executions and intimidation) ironically play out the torrid use of Western tools intended to bring people closer together.
Much has been made of the (apparent) sudden thaw in US-Iranian relations, not to mention the UK's announcement of re-opening its Embassy in Tehran. Truth is - as any observer witnessing the discomfort of Saudi and UAE officials in recent months - it has been in the works for some time. Rouhani has simply provided the correct conduit to a plan that was likely in place pre-Ahmadinejad and itching to be put into place. As cynical as it may sound, ISIS's sudden appearance on the global-terror platform provides the perfect cover for this new relationship to flourish.
With half the world engrossed in a truly thrilling World-Cup..so much has been written of the demise of Spain with their now-derided tiki-caca, how lovely the Argentinian fan-base look in those tight blue-shirts, and the refreshing absence of any serious trouble across Brazil during the festivities, that it would do little to add anything of note here. However, whilst watching some of the recent footage from the no man's land of western Iraq, a macabre and effectually disillusioning image stuck in the mind..as soldiers were being marched off to their shallow graves for all the world to see, a number of international football shirts were immediately noticeable, an awful juxtaposition of world-renowned footballing stars' names on the back of these "Shirts of Death" - enough to make anyone sat comfortable believing the worst thing to bare presently is anxious anticipation of a magically thin England route through to the second round, almost choke on the uneasy realisation of indeed how fortunate they are relative to ills other less fortunate parts of the world continue to inflict upon themselves.
The Middle East and the Levant in particular have never been areas of calm and guiding lights of co-civilisation. The blessing of the raw natural beauty of the entire region, stretching from the eastern Mediterranean to the greens of Iraq's ancient river-banks, have been cursed with a perverse and animal-like hatred between a people unable to share and find the common ground to bind them together. Since the 2003 "liberation" of Iraq, a plethora of planning mistakes centre around the Sunni-Shia divide have been made and noted ceaselessly, what we are now witnessing are the first signs of those seeds that were not correctly planted, grotesquely growing into a mutated and destructive force. Will the the modern allied military powers act with concerted effort and now discover a sudden road to lasting peace? Obama's track-record does bode well for any future intervention, executive powers enacted or not. Congress is not the obstacle here, Saudi/GCC suspicions of the approaching Iranian long-dormant superpower-in-the-waiting will be the biggest roadblock to any swift and mercilessly smooth cessation of atrocities.
It would take an entire chapter to wade through the permutations of conclusive scenarios over the next crucial week of action in the Persian Gulf. Suffice to say we have entered a new paradigm - simply look at how the spike in Crude Oil (up from $100/brl to almost $115/brl in 72 hours) has come as a direct result of the US aircraft carrier (handily named USS G W Bush) entering once viewed treacherous waters through the Straits of Hormuz to potentially assist(!) Iran with an intervention to protect Baghdad and not the now-usefully forgotten aggressive act of deterring Tehran's nuclear programme. Thought relationships swivelled quickly in those frivolous Latin soap operas? - woaah..nothing ever compares to real-life drama.
Saudi, Turkey and other Sunni forces in the surrounding areas will be in overdrive, bending the ear of any lobbyist, major "encumbered" corporation and all other influential conduits to the US in a desperate bid to make sense of the incredibly rapid seismic shift in Tehran communications. If a properly effective co-ordinated response can be pieced together, we really may be onto a powerfully transformative period across the entire Middle East. No one is suggesting it will be a quick fix, yet bringing Iran in from the cold and having their commercially-minded and large (mainly secular) population an integrated part of the economic growth of the entire region will provide ample opportunity for those that currently have no hope of a bright future at least glimpse a dim light at the end of the long-tunnel of discussion. Much has been on hold since the revolution of 1979, comfortable allegiances are now going to have to adapt and alter. The GCC and others will either fall into line and reap the benefits of this greater co-operation, as indeed Dubai has done for many years now, or fight against an ultimately overpowering tide of change. Let's all hope it is the former.
One thing strikes cleanly through this geo-political mess: the people of Iraq, Syria and those surrounding nations have suffered unduly for the political and religious whims of others. They must be protected and given some semblance of a normal existence if this ugly and vicious self-fulfilling circle of hatred and retribution is to miraculously fan itself out. We have been in the midst of a 35yr war, from the outbreak of the internally sanctioned Lebanese civil war in 1977 to the belligerence witnessed now on a daily basis across the new arc of hatred. It was disgusting and immoral in 1977, it is only sadly now more noticeably evil given the medium of modern technology being used in the most hideous manner. Enough is enough, Not in the name of religion and not in the name of revenge.
In the modern land of Mesopotamia, the ancient phrase "if setting out on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" has mutated into generation-shaping images of hapless men digging their own shallow graves wearing national football shirts with other more blessed men's names emblazoned on their backs. Children caught up in this disgusting and human morality questioning mess should be watching the real football heroes striding into glorious goal nets, not their fathers walking to their inglorious deaths on the internet.
The US are actually intending on partnering with Iran to counter ISIS's surge in Iraq. ISIS who you ask? Ahh..haven't you heard the world has a new foe? With a catchy iteration..ISIS is no less a creation of the West's failings than any of those groups that have caused such havoc before.
Oh the irony..not even fiction's greatest writers can outdo the splendour of political drama. Iran's role in the Middle East is due for a reset..watch this space as we dig deeper into understanding what this means for the GCC and Western relations with the Middle East in general.
ISIS is not only the newest created foe the West has unleashed on a suspecting yet still unduly suffering Middle East, it is also the most tech-savvy to date..making horrifying use of social media to literally terrorise the population of Iraq and its flabbergasted flailing Maliki-led "security forces" into psychological surrender. Relentless Tweets and video-posted real-life horrors (executions and intimidation) ironically play out the torrid use of Western tools intended to bring people closer together.
Much has been made of the (apparent) sudden thaw in US-Iranian relations, not to mention the UK's announcement of re-opening its Embassy in Tehran. Truth is - as any observer witnessing the discomfort of Saudi and UAE officials in recent months - it has been in the works for some time. Rouhani has simply provided the correct conduit to a plan that was likely in place pre-Ahmadinejad and itching to be put into place. As cynical as it may sound, ISIS's sudden appearance on the global-terror platform provides the perfect cover for this new relationship to flourish.
With half the world engrossed in a truly thrilling World-Cup..so much has been written of the demise of Spain with their now-derided tiki-caca, how lovely the Argentinian fan-base look in those tight blue-shirts, and the refreshing absence of any serious trouble across Brazil during the festivities, that it would do little to add anything of note here. However, whilst watching some of the recent footage from the no man's land of western Iraq, a macabre and effectually disillusioning image stuck in the mind..as soldiers were being marched off to their shallow graves for all the world to see, a number of international football shirts were immediately noticeable, an awful juxtaposition of world-renowned footballing stars' names on the back of these "Shirts of Death" - enough to make anyone sat comfortable believing the worst thing to bare presently is anxious anticipation of a magically thin England route through to the second round, almost choke on the uneasy realisation of indeed how fortunate they are relative to ills other less fortunate parts of the world continue to inflict upon themselves.
The Middle East and the Levant in particular have never been areas of calm and guiding lights of co-civilisation. The blessing of the raw natural beauty of the entire region, stretching from the eastern Mediterranean to the greens of Iraq's ancient river-banks, have been cursed with a perverse and animal-like hatred between a people unable to share and find the common ground to bind them together. Since the 2003 "liberation" of Iraq, a plethora of planning mistakes centre around the Sunni-Shia divide have been made and noted ceaselessly, what we are now witnessing are the first signs of those seeds that were not correctly planted, grotesquely growing into a mutated and destructive force. Will the the modern allied military powers act with concerted effort and now discover a sudden road to lasting peace? Obama's track-record does bode well for any future intervention, executive powers enacted or not. Congress is not the obstacle here, Saudi/GCC suspicions of the approaching Iranian long-dormant superpower-in-the-waiting will be the biggest roadblock to any swift and mercilessly smooth cessation of atrocities.
It would take an entire chapter to wade through the permutations of conclusive scenarios over the next crucial week of action in the Persian Gulf. Suffice to say we have entered a new paradigm - simply look at how the spike in Crude Oil (up from $100/brl to almost $115/brl in 72 hours) has come as a direct result of the US aircraft carrier (handily named USS G W Bush) entering once viewed treacherous waters through the Straits of Hormuz to potentially assist(!) Iran with an intervention to protect Baghdad and not the now-usefully forgotten aggressive act of deterring Tehran's nuclear programme. Thought relationships swivelled quickly in those frivolous Latin soap operas? - woaah..nothing ever compares to real-life drama.
Saudi, Turkey and other Sunni forces in the surrounding areas will be in overdrive, bending the ear of any lobbyist, major "encumbered" corporation and all other influential conduits to the US in a desperate bid to make sense of the incredibly rapid seismic shift in Tehran communications. If a properly effective co-ordinated response can be pieced together, we really may be onto a powerfully transformative period across the entire Middle East. No one is suggesting it will be a quick fix, yet bringing Iran in from the cold and having their commercially-minded and large (mainly secular) population an integrated part of the economic growth of the entire region will provide ample opportunity for those that currently have no hope of a bright future at least glimpse a dim light at the end of the long-tunnel of discussion. Much has been on hold since the revolution of 1979, comfortable allegiances are now going to have to adapt and alter. The GCC and others will either fall into line and reap the benefits of this greater co-operation, as indeed Dubai has done for many years now, or fight against an ultimately overpowering tide of change. Let's all hope it is the former.
One thing strikes cleanly through this geo-political mess: the people of Iraq, Syria and those surrounding nations have suffered unduly for the political and religious whims of others. They must be protected and given some semblance of a normal existence if this ugly and vicious self-fulfilling circle of hatred and retribution is to miraculously fan itself out. We have been in the midst of a 35yr war, from the outbreak of the internally sanctioned Lebanese civil war in 1977 to the belligerence witnessed now on a daily basis across the new arc of hatred. It was disgusting and immoral in 1977, it is only sadly now more noticeably evil given the medium of modern technology being used in the most hideous manner. Enough is enough, Not in the name of religion and not in the name of revenge.
In the modern land of Mesopotamia, the ancient phrase "if setting out on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" has mutated into generation-shaping images of hapless men digging their own shallow graves wearing national football shirts with other more blessed men's names emblazoned on their backs. Children caught up in this disgusting and human morality questioning mess should be watching the real football heroes striding into glorious goal nets, not their fathers walking to their inglorious deaths on the internet.
Johny Kerry will have a hard time convincing the Shia majority today that the bloodshed should lead to negotiation. I agree that this is a 35yr war cycle and we have more disaster ahead
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