Monday 25 January 2016

Better late than...

...NEVER have the markets been so much fun.

Back in September, a number of highly motivated and historically prescient investment professionals this writer is lucky to know, were quite accurate in their market predictions, leading to my earlier post to "take it all off" - no Hillary, not please keep it all on.

There was one teeny bit wrong with that was a full quarter too soon. Anyone with short positions will have sweated out most of the pre-NYE celebrations! 2016 and things have moved with quite a vengeance since then however...from a collapse in the oil price to incredible volatility and now bear-market territory for Asia stock markets, European bourses and dramatic losses in blue-chip NYSE stocks, the heady days of Central Bank largesse are being exposed for their quick-fix issues.

The biggest political factor at play here is not Trump - as much as he wishes - but the speedy re-integration of the Iranian juggernaut. Iranian oil and other GCC wide implications will continue to ripple for much of 2016. Markets will continue to rely fully on monetary easing and a seismic shift in renewable energy, tech "sobberisation" and continued innovation in industry-changing robotics will keep us all on our toes.

Previous calamitous issues (ISIS, European asylum seekers etc.) will give way for increasingly dangerous currency pressures on US$-linked economies - Saudi, HK, beware that peg, plenty have been watching the "Big Short" and are coming for you! - incredible advances in drone-technology making us all even lazier thanks to at-home deliveries in minutes..but also (hopefully) humane and civilisation improving understandings in protecting our environment and finally fully utilising alternative forms of power generation. Oh..and watch space (literally) for where the next 20yrs of super-power muscle-flexing will be best expressed.

There is no doubt we will be surprised and amazed over the next 12mths...fingers crossed it won't be by "The Donald".