CiviLIESation

Given the summer lull and majority of usual readers being on holiday, a shorter than normal conversation piece, intended to elicit discussion whilst lounging by the pool or lunching on the yacht. Take a break from taking a break… 

What betrayal lurks within the one word we pride ourselves on as separating us - the "developed" human species - from the rest of the animal kingdom…long considered primitive and purely feral? Since the signing of the Magna Carta in 1215, laying down the foundation for laws we witness and abide by today in much of the Western world, we have called certain variations of collections of humanity “civilised”. Even further back, from the Persians, Greeks and Romans, each moment of human structure and triumph of institution over chaos has been met with the same word. 

What lies are we imposing upon ourselves though? Would we look back in 50 years from now and honestly call the world we witness as a portrayal of civilized society? From the more light-hearted observations of American tourists in (present day) Rome literally being laughed at to their faces by quite gleefully cheating waiters (instantly reducing prices by 80% when confronted by a more savvy Lebanese traveller), to the everyday atrocities unfolding across the Middle East, lives being cruelly stolen by the blood-stained hands of revenge hungry militia, battling for a cause they likely barely understand…the fabric of what once constituted a civil society is being tested to its core. 

How can we call ourselves civilised when the world is in such disarray? Wars raging, children starving and dying from lack of basic human resources. Some will reconcile that we are doing the best we can in a cruel world..that at least large swathes of the global population live within borders defined by peace and (relative) prosperity. That is not enough. The West has done what it can to lead in the way it knows best..plenty have been left behind however. 

Technology is the double-edged sword both pushing us forwards as a collective society and tearing us apart as a coherent social people. The “hands-off” approach of venting anger and disgust at the goings-on in Gaza, or the ridiculous sums awarded to former oligarchs at the expense of Russian pride ($50bn to former Yukos shareholders), has de-humanised much of the underlying suffering. It is not enough to simply indicate your concern, what has happened to actually doing something about it? Should not a “civilised” society act with more vigour to protect its own, rather than simply stand in the tech-halls of our modern day equivalent of the Roman Senate, decrying the beastly behaviour of those outside of the social norm. 

It’s awful out there. We are all to blame. Pointing the finger at those that have been elected (as well as those that have self-elected in a benign dictatorship) is simply not enough. We have the means to do so much more than ineffectually comment and “forward via WhatsApp” gruesome images intended to shock and provoke a vigorous two minute debate. What happens when the tapping of touch-screens falls silent? Do the bombs and rockets between Israel and Hamas miraculously stop? Do disease-riddled Africans desperate for the most natural of earth’s resource – water – receive instant bottled spring water? When the phone is placed on “Airplane Mode”..does the loss of life also go offline? 

There are dangerous similarities to the end of previous great perceived civilsations…people far more concerned with the frivolous and aesthetically pleasing than the profound and weighty. When images of some unknown “photo-bombing” of an unimportant celebrity enjoys more attention than true destructive munitions falling from the skies onto innocent civilians, or more people appear interested in whether Usain Bolt will run or not rather than if John Kerry has been able to make a cease-fire last longer than 24 hours, something must be considered awry. 

As many of us (relatively deservedly) enjoy reclining out there whilst sipping a fine crisp Gavi, gazing across the crystal clear waters whilst biting into deliciously milky buffalo mozzarella off some Mediterranean coast, representing what we consider a civilised species, we really ought to be doing more to avoid looking far too similar to the very animals we look down upon.

 

  

Checkmate!

What a surprise! Zeee Germans overpowered a number of nations in a global battle to rise to the top and dominate (sometimes obliterate) through efficiency and strength.. Oh..and they also won the World Cup!

Now that the World Cup is over, the world will resume it's cynical overview of terrible human events taking shape all across the hot spots that are suffering from the likes of the 1916 instigated Sykes-Picot unravelling, continued belligerence in the Levant and rising China tensions. The dangerous and potentially destructive game of chess continues amidst the globe's top powers.

We shall explore, intermittently (we all need some time-off!) during the summer lull all this great world has to offer and, with some gladly received feedback, write shorter but more frequent pieces.

Watch this space....
Hani Kobrossi

Shirts of Death

VOLTE FACE-ISIMOOOOoooo! No..not a shrieking-spine-tingling pure euphoric Latin American commentator's goal celebration, but the sheer unbelievably fascinating speed with which the world has all of a sudden announced Iran's return in from the geo-political cold.

The US are actually intending on partnering with Iran to counter ISIS's surge in Iraq. ISIS who you ask? Ahh..haven't you heard the world has a new foe? With a catchy iteration..ISIS is no less a creation of the West's failings than any of those groups that have caused such havoc before.

Oh the irony..not even fiction's greatest writers can outdo the splendour of political drama. Iran's role in the Middle East is due for a reset..watch this space as we dig deeper into understanding what this means for the GCC and Western relations with the Middle East in general.

ISIS is not only the newest created foe the West has unleashed on a suspecting yet still unduly suffering Middle East, it is also the most tech-savvy to date..making horrifying use of social media to literally terrorise the population of Iraq and its flabbergasted flailing Maliki-led "security forces" into psychological surrender. Relentless Tweets and video-posted real-life horrors (executions and intimidation) ironically play out the torrid use of Western tools intended to bring people closer together.

Much has been made of the (apparent) sudden thaw in US-Iranian relations, not to mention the UK's announcement of re-opening its Embassy in Tehran. Truth is - as any observer witnessing the discomfort of Saudi and UAE officials in recent months - it has been in the works for some time. Rouhani has simply provided the correct conduit to a plan that was likely in place pre-Ahmadinejad and itching to be put into place. As cynical as it may sound, ISIS's sudden appearance on the global-terror platform provides the perfect cover for this new relationship to flourish.

With half the world engrossed in a truly thrilling World-Cup..so much has been written of the demise of Spain with their now-derided tiki-caca, how lovely the Argentinian fan-base look in those tight blue-shirts, and the refreshing absence of any serious trouble across Brazil during the festivities, that it would do little to add anything of note here. However, whilst watching some of the recent footage from the no man's land of western Iraq, a macabre and effectually disillusioning image stuck in the mind..as soldiers were being marched off to their shallow graves for all the world to see, a number of international football shirts were immediately noticeable, an awful juxtaposition of world-renowned footballing stars' names on the back of these "Shirts of Death" - enough to make anyone sat comfortable believing the worst thing to bare presently is anxious anticipation of a magically thin England route through to the second round, almost choke on the uneasy realisation of indeed how fortunate they are relative to ills other less fortunate parts of the world continue to inflict upon themselves.

The Middle East and the Levant in particular have never been areas of calm and guiding lights of co-civilisation. The blessing of the raw natural beauty of the entire region, stretching from the eastern Mediterranean to the greens of Iraq's ancient river-banks, have been cursed with a perverse and animal-like hatred between a people unable to share and find the common ground to bind them together. Since the 2003 "liberation" of Iraq, a plethora of planning mistakes centre around the Sunni-Shia divide have been made and noted ceaselessly, what we are now witnessing are the first signs of those seeds that were not correctly planted, grotesquely growing into a mutated and destructive force. Will the the modern allied military powers act with concerted effort and now discover a sudden road to lasting peace? Obama's track-record does bode well for any future intervention, executive powers enacted or not. Congress is not the obstacle here, Saudi/GCC suspicions of the approaching Iranian long-dormant superpower-in-the-waiting will be the biggest roadblock to any swift and mercilessly smooth cessation of atrocities.

It would take an entire chapter to wade through the permutations of conclusive scenarios over the next crucial week of action in the Persian Gulf. Suffice to say we have entered a new paradigm - simply look at how the spike in Crude Oil (up from $100/brl to almost $115/brl in 72 hours) has come as a direct result of the US aircraft carrier (handily named USS G W Bush) entering once viewed treacherous waters through the Straits of Hormuz to potentially assist(!) Iran with an intervention to protect Baghdad and not the now-usefully forgotten aggressive act of deterring Tehran's nuclear programme. Thought relationships swivelled quickly in those frivolous Latin soap operas? - woaah..nothing ever compares to real-life drama.

Saudi, Turkey and other Sunni forces in the surrounding areas will be in overdrive, bending the ear of any lobbyist, major "encumbered" corporation and all other influential conduits to the US in a desperate bid to make sense of the incredibly rapid seismic shift in Tehran communications. If a properly effective co-ordinated response can be pieced together, we really may be onto a powerfully transformative period across the entire Middle East. No one is suggesting it will be a quick fix, yet bringing Iran in from the cold and having their commercially-minded and large (mainly secular) population an integrated part of the economic growth of the entire region will provide ample opportunity for those that currently have no hope of a bright future at least glimpse a dim light at the end of the long-tunnel of discussion. Much has been on hold since the revolution of 1979, comfortable allegiances are now going to have to adapt and alter. The GCC and others will either fall into line and reap the benefits of this greater co-operation, as indeed Dubai has done for many years now, or fight against an ultimately overpowering tide of change. Let's all hope it is the former.

One thing strikes cleanly through this geo-political mess: the people of Iraq, Syria and those surrounding nations have suffered unduly for the political and religious whims of others. They must be protected and given some semblance of a normal existence if this ugly and vicious self-fulfilling circle of hatred and retribution is to miraculously fan itself out. We have been in the midst of a 35yr war, from the outbreak of the internally sanctioned Lebanese civil war in 1977 to the belligerence witnessed now on a daily basis across the new arc of hatred. It was disgusting and immoral in 1977, it is only sadly now more noticeably evil given the medium of modern technology being used in the most hideous manner. Enough is enough, Not in the name of religion and not in the name of revenge.

In the modern land of Mesopotamia, the ancient phrase "if setting out on a journey of revenge, dig two graves" has mutated into generation-shaping images of hapless men digging their own shallow graves wearing national football shirts with other more blessed men's names emblazoned on their backs. Children caught up in this disgusting and human morality questioning mess should be watching the real football heroes striding into glorious goal nets, not their fathers walking to their inglorious deaths on the internet.

VOLTE FACE-ISSIMOOooooooo!!

No..not a shrieking-spine-tingling pure euphoric Latin American commentator's goal celebration, but the sheer unbelievably fascinating speed with which the world has all of a sudden announced Iran's return in from the geo-political cold.

The US are actually intending on partnering with Iran to counter ISIS's surge in Iraq. ISIS who you ask? Ahh..haven't you heard the world has a new foe? With a catchy iteration..ISIS is no less a creation of the West's failings than any of those groups that have caused such havoc before.

Oh the irony..not even fiction's greatest writers can outdo the splendour of political drama. Iran's role in the Middle East is due for a reset..watch this space as we dig deeper into understanding what this means for the GCC and Western relations with the Middle East in general.

To be continued...

Scarfacenomics

Capitalism and trade according to Toni Montana – “first jou gotta get the money, then jou get the power, then jou get the..”..ahhh..can’t publish that line here but rest assured it is something man has always strived to attain..and always shall struggle to!

Our iconic American dream anti-hero-Montana expressed a bewilderingly efficient entrepreneurial flair and killer instinct for spotting a gap in the market and filling it quite gladly with Yeyo (aka Cocaine - for those that maybe have never watched the likely most-quoted movie of all time), generating copious amounts of wealth for himself and those around him…it appears there are a great number of equally successful pharmaceutically inclined Europe-based entrepreneurs around to generate a buzz that is superlatively controversial, to say the least, in its lifting of national GDP. Latest EU regulations (now ESA rules require a number of illegal trading activities including narcotics, cigarettes and prostitution - where both sides willingly comply - to be included in EU member states’ calculations to provide a “clearer” picture of actual GDP and economic activity) have potentially inflated some countries’ GDP by as much as 5% (Sweden, Finland) and assisted other indebted nations (Italy) to more easily reach the imposed 3% Debt-to-GDP limit..increasing Italy’s GDP by 1.3% thanks to the omnipresent Mafia and incredibly fun-looking Bunga Bunga parties, makes keeping to the debt limit slightly easier for them this year..bene! Special thanks no doubt should be extended to supreme GDP contributor Berlusconi..even out of power, the jet-black-dyed-fox is still influencing the country’s political machinations..possibly single-handedly!

The UK would also handsomely benefit from the ESA change, with a potential 3%-4% bump in GDP, when all those nightclubs and celebrity restaurants’ true nocturnal activity behind the toilet doors are taken into account – not for nothing is there an urban myth that 95% of UK notes in circulation have traces of illegal substances. Does all of this really come as a surprise though? Most people living in such cities have a good understanding of what happens around them, how it happens and that is an accepted facet of society. After all, governments over time have decreed what actually constitutes this black market activity and the ingredients of such limitations to what one can get away with…errm..meant to say trade….vary from nation to nation..one man’s illegal cannabis distribution ring in Frankfurt is another’s “coffee shop” in Amsterdam (legal recordable revenue in the Netherlands). Interesting, as most illicit activity eventually works its way to supercar dealerships and restaurants anyway..doesnt it? The UK’s VAT and other indirect taxation methods should normally slurp up this excess. Judging by the blacked out vehicles that swiftly careen through the streets of the worlds greatest “tax-friendly” cities, bodyguards in tow, the thriving market often described as black but more colourful than many would give credit for, strengthens and underpins a great number of economic factors. Historical quirks and past venal corporate lobbying resulted in plenty of the current “illegal” landscape..some argue the only reason the ubiquitous coffee drinker is not risking a lengthy prison sentence is down to some powerful lobbying from self-interested growers in the late 1800s, whereas the hemp plant suffered ignominious defeat on the back of trumped up medical charges. Wherever you stand on the issue, the subjective nature of one man’s legal drug or activity leads to the very existence of the so called grey-side of the market and the reason there is room for Scarfacenomics.

We must also consider other nations that do not so honestly divulge the extent of industries that have forever existed and significantly contributed to not only the enjoyment of many its population but also the efficacy and size of its output. If we look at where most global corporate profit is generated it is normally from the addictive substances - drugs, alcohol, coffee and even these days an unhealthy addiction to the internet and the prevailing and time-shifting sin of vanity - people Tweet because they want others to see what they are doing (a reason people have made the DailyMail the world’s most visited online tabloid). It becomes compulsive, addictive and overall generally destructive. Is it really that terrible though that such large swathes of the Western population take joy out of something as simple as Rihanna’s barely-there dress..?..could think of worse things to be looking at. The truth remains that Scarfacenomics may be closer to the reality of doing business than we comfortably admit. Witness the furore surrounding the alleged corrupt practices of the future World Cup to be held (for now) in Qatar in 2022. Are we simply gawking at the unsavoury practice of “facilitation payments” considered the norm in the Middle East with envious bafflement that others did not think (or afford) to do the same, or genuinely incensed that such activity actually takes place – even though most are fully aware this is how large swathes of business gets done. These activities belie a greater problem..but just because we do not always see them does not mean they do not prolifically exist.

The general level of GDP attributed to such illicit activity is astounding on the surface but exceptionally difficult to truly calculate. Sarface’s protagonist would snort-for-joy, proud of the recognition and credit afforded to his business-building skills. He, like others before him, although rooted in reality rather than larger-than-life fictional characters, have long contributed to such global trade and value. We would likely have some of the world’s largest economies in some unsuspected destinations - lest you be a cognisant travelling businessman covering certain markets that is..especially such lovely and warm places of culture as the GCC (a little sarcasm), alongside certain Asian cities that spring to mind, where the level of extra-curricular activity is so densely concentrated in a few blocks that they may well constitute mini-superpower states on their own! The Middle East in particular would witness incredible skews in certain economic output were they to first even acknowledge the existence of some of their greatest illicit activities – spent any decent amount of time in a Dubai hotel lobby?..then you know what we’re talking about here..the level of hypocrisy that exists there boggles the mind.

One man’s crime is another man’s pay-check. Crime doesn’t pay, or at least that’s what teachers, parents and police forces around the world instil into most children from a very young age, repeating the mantra that there is no substitute for hard-work and honest, moral effort resulting in just rewards. Anyone taking a simple look around the streets of London, Monaco, Hong Kong and other hot-beds of welcoming banking systems and tax-havens will possibly hesitate mid sentence thrilled by the sounds of a passing super-car, engine revving at full scream (complete with requisite as-if-dealer-option-supplied peroxide blonde passenger with vacuous stare..also screaming), almost stumbling at the surprise and shock of realising the driver is barely old enough to legally drink (oh the irony) and wonder where exactly the black market punishment for such crimes is hitting hardest. We all know most people do work hard and live within the confines of the law. Fascination and near obsession with the criminal aspect of humanity though, with the glorification of such activity through books, movies and now slickly produced TV-series’, maintains an almost endearing affair and slightly sycophantic admiration for those on, seemingly, the wrong side of the law.

Rationalise the above with a report this week that Generation Z (16-25 year olds) is potentially the saviour of our economic malaise through clean living. Toni Montana would be appalled! Apparently less alcohol is being consumed and a significant fall in recreational drug-use is being witnessed. This may well be simply because there is not enough disposal income amongst the newer generation for frivolous spending and so many are quite concerned (obsessed) with how they look, bringing a certain narcissistic, yet medically welcome, result. Lack of job security and a greater negative stigma from viral social media also factors at play here.

Institutionalised corruption and preferentially legalised activity indubitably contribute significantly to the greater world economy. The other side of the legal divide, is simply a truth of the way we do business and what much of the population enjoy. Even great global tech firms like Apple and the late Steve Jobs display traits akin to Toni Montana’s insatiable appetite for success. Both would not have been able to realise the pinnacle of the American Dream without a little “creative thinking”. Apple’s latest announcements this week are timely reminders of the difficulty in maintaining a position atop a cut-throat competitive pyramid. If it wasn’t for the rather oblique working conditions that used to exist at Apple’s outsourced factory in China, it may not have been able to generate the massive mountain of cash that sits behind it and prohibits many would-be competitors from ever summoning the courage to take it on. Would proud US law-makers ever admit to such practices being tolerated..of course not. 

In a world of Scarfacenomics where mountains of cash are replaced with mountains of other substances, the Montana tag-line that echoes and prevails as a perfectly consistent reminder of the oblique nature of capitalist profit before morality…“I always tell the truth, even when I lie.”

Scarfacenomics - Jou got the stuff? (coming soon!)

Some other pertinent factors have prevented the full piece from being completed in time this week. Please excuse the lack of consistency on this occasion and look-out for Toni Montana's take on global macroeconomics - how one nation's crime is another's GDP bonanza!

Sweet Sound of Sport

Even as large swathes of the world’s population sit eagerly awaiting the start of their joyously anticipated month of football, cities burn in the host nation’s glare of protest and demonstration. Brazil’s dismal economic situation has seen a worrying lack of support for the upcoming festivities, hunger and strife acutely more present than a celebration of goals – for now. Other parts of the world are not faring much better…Eurosceptics abound as national results show worrying support for parties such as UKIP and France’s National Front, China rattles the cyber-war cage (and much of Asia as a consequence) by essentially kicking-out all US consultancy firms and related tech equipment (funny considering they just bought IBM’s server business), Middle East tension was only slightly ameliorated by the Pope’s recent visit to Jerusalem..calling upon all religions to work for “peace and brotherhood”..limitations still teem with even the kissing of two symbolic walls..but hey..nice try, we witness a sharp U-turn by once banker-loving Carney of the Bank of England, as he is now reported to declare the extravagantly compensated “lucky superstars” and blames the current environment for creating such extreme income discrepancy..he certainly will not have been impressed then with the news that one of London’s iconic towers is to be unceremoniously renamed to match its highest paying tenant (one such tenant makes delicious pancakes all the way up at the top)..from “Heron” to “Salesforce”..pity those residing tech-firms having to advertise their competitor emblazoned across their stationery..oops…time to move one thinks?

There’s a lot of aggression in the world at the moment…but we have something to hold onto, something to look forward to and even something to provide hope that there is a way out for humanity and a lasting desire for good and peace. With the resurgence in attendance of live music and sporting events, what better unifying factor than entertainment carried by the arts and sports. Almost everyone has a particular passion. Transcending culture, language and much of the time even playing its part to douse the fires of hatred and misunderstanding, that all too often develop over hundreds of years of distrust and forgotten conflicts, music and sports bring people together like no other. A wonderful evening spent at the Royal Albert Hall being delighted by a live orchestral rendition with the screening of a modern classic (Gladiator – yes ok..slightly ironic a violent film is being used to make such a point..but bear with me..it works!) reminded the lucky attending audience of the sheer importance of music as a soundtrack to our lives. It amplified that without the emotive response dictated by the masterful control of musical instruments, the spectacle and experience of much that we hold memorable would simply be as flat-as-a-drunken karaoke singer’s Whitney Houston rendition.

Where the high-definition sword-fighting and political intrigue on the screen was effortlessly outdone by the majestic orchestral notes of power and sweetness, sheer admiration and delight for the grandeur of human creativity proliferated..tellingly with the greatest applause provided for the end-credits nod to the original composer. Bravo!

When another present day gladiator was interviewed about his apparent love for his sport, Mohammed Ali once said “it’s just a job, grass grows, birds fly, waves pounds the sand. I beat people up.” Anyone that knows the man and the history of his approach to his profession knows that is not quite how he lived it.  Ali brought a poetic wisdom to his chosen sport, sadly ironic considering he brutally submitted himself, not to mention countless opponents, to mental deterioration as a result. Without wanting to sound too philosophical, there is a certain inherent desire displayed by humanity to destroy itself, to constantly conquer and battle against those that do not for some reason or another tally their thoughts, dreams and aspirations with their own – outside the “norm” whatever the norm may subjectively be. Find yourself on the wrong side and without the overwhelming might of crowd support, you are all of a sudden subjected to Tocqueville’s long-stated “tyranny of the masses”. In the numbers game of survival, the greater absolute always wins.

What can we do to serenely conquer this dangerous and perfectly self-destructive nature? Well..by watching others battle it out for starters..and not always in such brutally violent arenas. Stadia the world over routinely extend a helpful conduit (from baseball to ice-hokey) for man’s violent nature to vent itself harmlessly through competition and the desire to win. Brazil's unhappy population will soon almost certainly revel in the communal and spiritual-like adoration of watching their skilled players dominate on the cauldron like field of their most loved sport. Their troubles will be momentarily forgotten and hopefully lastingly diminished. Despite George Orwell negatively describing sport “as war without the bullets”, most people would gladly chose the bullet-less form and adhere to Nelson Mandela’s strong belief that “sport laughs in the face of all discrimination".

Gladiatorial prowess was a sport often used in ancient Rome to delight and placate the baying crowd. Nothing was more efficient in spreading the image of might and power as gory renditions of historic battles fought and won by Rome’s imperious forces, creating a powerful and coherent link between a people – strengthening the very fabric of peace and cooperative living amidst those that shared the same values and felt the same support. We need this now more than ever. In today’s world and our own restless always-connected-online-crowds, we can equate this to global televised sporting events…in fact, with so many distractions all around us - from “KimYe” getting married (harmless fun)…to which of the One Direction not-so-squeaky clean boys is getting high on more than just love - the only event that appears to have us stop and collectively gather these days is either a live music performance or important sporting event. The World-Cup…our modern day Gladiatorial event…is due to take place in a couple of weeks, pitting global teams against one another for 90 minutes at a time, causing entire national populations to stop their daily activity and vent their various emotional hang-ups in a (mostly) non-violent manner, apart from the usual Italian primadonnas prancing around and others..yep..you LatAm teams..bafflingly stumbling over imperceptible obstacles, the beauty of the sport unifies and delights in no other way.   

Whilst some only see a growing divide between the inhabitants of this wonderful world we all share, others are doing what they can to bring us all closer together and provide a more level-playing field, aiding those that would otherwise be left behind to enjoy many of the better pinnacles of human achievement. Google has just announced it is moving into working-prototype production of 100 fully automated vehicles, intended to be deployed on the streets of forwardly-eco (hippie?) thinking California. It is the brainchild of the Google X camp, part of those moon-shots we looked at last week and a real triumph for ambition in the face of legal and regulatory hurdles, moving streets closer to cleaner, safer and possibly more enjoyable journeys - no steering wheels and pedals to contend with will leave a lot of free time “behind-the-wheel”, to be filled, no doubt, with endless hours of Google internet related fun…or those riding with an actual human that is attracted to them, may be able to find other ways to relish the journey..go long heavily tinted windows!

South Korea may well be spared a few blushes as a result of this great innovation, they had begun to allocate special “female parking bays” in busy shopping mall carparks, that are..err..quite a bit wider than the normal parking bays. Oohh..Touchy. No one is saying women need more space when gently manoeuvering their vehicles into a tight spot…noooo…but hey..with Google’s help no one will have to anymore!

Let’s hope we are still allowed to kit-out those cars with fantastically powerful entertainment systems so we might all listen to music and watch live sporting events. Brazil’s mood will surely turn the instant the first whistle is blown in what is today’s modern equivalent of Rome’s Coliseum. Bringing together the world for even a month does great things to help us avoid autonomously hurtling down a path of destruction, rather helping us serenely drive down the music-filled road to peace.