Soft-Shell Crab Index - with a side of Steak

Roller-coasters are feared and loved by children and teenagers alike - the ducking, the diving, the stomach-churning-moments that remind you to watch-what-you-eat and bring that thump-thump of your heart right up to your throat…oh yes..any equally teenage like spotty, sweaty trader, investor or even Flash-Boy (as Michael Lewis would deride) in the last two weeks has likely enjoyed much the same relationship with their ride of choice..the global markets. 

Since our last mention of lofty market highs on the 26th March and incredibly ridiculous valuations paid for tech acquisitions, we have been going through the anticipated sharp correction (S&P500 at one point shedding 3.5%…Emerging Markets continuing to make way for safer havens…Japan swinging wildly through an 8% peak-to-trough) most notably with a wiping out of almost $300bn from the tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular. Much of this has been long-feared profit-taking off such stellar performers as Netflix…but it seems to pay to insightfully watch those canaries in the mine-shaft..only a couple of days before this pull-back, notably over-medicated media pundits (yes you CNBC and CNN) were extolling the opportunity to continue buying into the rally - when you see everyone looking in the same direction, look the other way! Even the “ tenth-man rule”…used by some of the world’s most elite strategic think-tanks, works on this contrarian premise - if all nine people in a room agree on a certain topic, the tenth man must disagree and assume his interpretation - no matter how improbable - is true. All too often, the proof is in the tenth man.  

 So markets aside, as there is really nothing new to all this noise and excitement of corrections, fluctuations, volatility and surges in the Fear Index (+23%…well-played those smarty-pants that bought into the Vol), some have suffered in the last couple of weeks but certain pockets of the new homogenous global-“elite” live impervious to the daily machinations of the gyrating and worry-inducing geopolitical landscape.

We call these lucky few the new generation of “Untechables”. Anything and everything that is fresh and innovative (hmm.. about personal perspective here, must be said) is no longer subject to the physically enforced limitation of time and delivery. Technology has blown that old-world order into the smart-phone-scape. Where once there was something invigoratingly different about a visit to Hong Kong, as opposed to a hop-over to New York or a quick weekend in Dubrovnik, the advanced world of branding and logistics has now ensured that the morning toffee-infused-latte one enjoys before getting on a plane will once again be consumed in exactly the same manner and concoction…and identically designed environment…when walking around trying to enjoy the “different” sights-and-sounds of the visited city. How boring.

In fact, nowadays it is more difficult to find something unique about a city or particular tourist destination, near-impossible to go somewhere that has not already been flouted and exposed for all to witness on the numerous iterations of social-media - everyone’s to-do-list now looks the same..doesn’t it!? May as well just have one big shared list that everyone will tick-off (recognise the unerring sounds of a dystopian 1984-like world anyone?). Honestly however, I am quite torn by the effects of Instagram and helpful food-bloggers abounding across every block of New York or borough of London..after all..the gluttonous aspect of my character loves the fact that a Cronut (mmmm..) can be selfied on Monday in a New York food-truck - heralding the creation of a brand new sweet delight (like a perfect drop of dessert heaven) only to be miraculously transported and deliciously replicated by keen trend-watchers - whom are equally savvy to the fast-paced-lightning-like viral dispersal of such food-fashions - to be gorged on by Friday on the streets of London and Paris - the “London is 5 years behind New York “ tag-line has been so viscerally squeezed that nothing is less than a couple of days click or bake-away. Do we like this?..answers in the comments below please.

Some of you will recall my analysis of the relative cost-of-living created at the height of the financial crisis in 2009, through the Soft-Shell-Crab Index a (cruder and simpler of course) equivalent to the Economist’s “ Big Mac Index” - where PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is calculated in US$-terms to determine whether a particular currency is under/overvalued based on the price of a Big Mac at every McDonald’s in every capital city in the world where one is sold. Such indices are perfect examples of this “same-world” order. It should not be so easy to compare the price of dinner in a high-end restaurant in one part of London’s Mayfair to mid-level Hong Kong - cultural variation and local idiosyncrasy (please go visit Tokyo to get a taste of that) is good for the soul.

The Soft-Shell-Crab Index is inspired by the ever-growing presence of Asian “con-faux-fusion” eateries, all vying to attract crowds of, seemingly inexhaustible, affluent diners capable and willing to fork-out the necessary spend for a decadent night out. Out of utmost respect, Tokyo is left aside once again..eating there is simply without peer.

 Some simple analysis* points to a baffling trend - not only have prices increased across the entire spectrum since 2009 (up by an average of 20% across San Francisco, New York, Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore) but the discrepancy between the highest (Abu Dhabi) and lowest (San Francisco) has also increased by over 30%. It seems that ordering a plate of delicious food to impress your clients/date in tech-savvy San Fran, is more appealing to the wallet than trying to outcompete the “I want everything on the menu habibi..three times over” attitude of Emiratis in Abu Dhabi - ever seen a table in the Middle East actually FINISH their food?

The greater implication for such observations of this PPP is a manifest and continuing widening of the income-disparity gap - centres of financial-wealth that are attracting money from across the legally acceptable spectrum (yep..that means some money-laundering) continue to increase prices and inflate away the size of a portion in return for its cost, extracting the most from the normally less-than-price-sensitive diners. Lesson to be learnt here: go immediately and open a soft-shell-crab food truck and instagram your way to near-instantaneous replication in every major global city centre. Even a well-known and successful restaurant chain in London that only serves two items on its menu (lobsters and burgers..what geniuses!) has gotten into the soft-shell crab game…plans are to open a new side-chain that will only serve juicy steaks and king-crab…Go long and hard the crab industry!

Whilst some fret about the increasing costs of daily staples (witness recent explosions of violence in the Middle East and Sub-continental discontent when a loaf of bread becomes too expensive for an average daily salary) others are more worried about what it means when their favourite breakfast is a few cents more expensive – this week an entire article on one of the more respected news websites was devoted to investigating the increase in pork prices the US was suffering, resulting in more expensive bacon fry-ups at 24hr diners. Oh the suffering!

Some will say this is simply the way the world-works, others will try to bring about change, most will have no choice. Those that can chose, must do so between steak and crab..poor things.

·     *All pricing information attained from enquiries carried-out between 14th and 15th April 2014 by contacting (or checking online) each represented establishment where soft-shell-crab is known to be served in the listed cities. Variances in size and quality may of course exist but calculations are based on the limitations of the information provided.