Better than Big

So it has actually happened, China is within months of becoming the world’s largest economy, overtaking the US. It has happened quicker than anyone had foretold and (a little boringly) due to a technical re-evaluation of measurement parameters. It has happened right in font of the eyes of the world. Watching and waiting for the inevitable but having believed they had till 2019 until the necessary acceptance that the old-world-order - comfortably in place since 1872, when the US overtook Britain as the world’s largest economy - would signify an indubitably monumental new chapter in this ever-changing geopolitical landscape. Time to stop watching Diners-Drive-Ins and Dives on the Food Network and begin exploring Sweet-N-Sour-Shacks, Noodle-Nests and Peking Duck-Dives?

Not so fast there Confucius say…as always, the timing of this announcement by the World Bank is pertinent. With some realistic cynicism, it should be mentioned the World Bank are not too happy about the US withholding their funding at the moment, so hey let’s make the US look less powerful..ouch. Obama has just returned from a crucial trip to Asia where he met with every nation capable of creating a barricade against China. The much touted Trans Pacific Partnership is still to be ratified but that is essentially an agreement to stifle China’s growing influence across its seas and help maintain the US’s maritime power in South-East Asia. Nothing new here…the US has maintained global dominance with its two favourite major weapons since the second world war: 1. its currency backed by 2. rather intimidatingly large and powerful guns on its aircraft carriers…forcing a nation to accept your dollar-linked inflationary drive is a little easier when looming behind you is such menacing force..nice position to be in US maestros.

As exciting as it all sounds, such technical changes to GDP calculations can be misleading. India all of a sudden is the world’s third largest economy..a country where 80% of homes have no flushable toilets!..does that sound like a rich country to you?..and we should not forget that China is still a long way behind the mantle the US (and EU for that matter, with an unassailable combined economy of $17.2trn and some of the world’s highest living standards) has established as a leading innovator and overall rich-world lifestyle (no television in the guest toilet?..shame on you!) No..China has certainly come a long way, quicker than many anticipated..but fudging numbers and moving the goal-lines during play is not going to positively affect those living in abject poverty in rural western China nor cause them to celebrate their new found status. What good is being the world’s largest economy when you cannot feed your family? Poor is still poor. 

So what accounts for all this apparent narrowing of global living standards? Simple, people know more and WANT more. Want is a great desire and is what allows most of us to get-up-out-of-bed in the morning. We used to leave the cave to hunt, now we leave our apartments to sedately ride the (when not on strike) tube to tap-away at a keyboard and gossip via WhatsApp..all from the comfort of our desks. The belief that we must be generating, moving forwards, creating goods and services to be used for the exchange of other desirable goods and services. The very function of supply and demand is what keeps us going. With a little help from “command central”, it is the human need for more that has propelled China to its latest position. Hard work is equated with modest success. You have to go the whole way to get what you want, no matter the hardship.  As a great line in a recent business book suggests “If you are going to eat shit, don’t nibble”

Why do we put up with this need to bite whole and swallow? We want to be able to purchase “things” to enjoy our lives. Enjoyment comes from leisure. Is that not the point of us working in the first place?..to generate memorable moments of leisure? Interestingly, the dichotomy that now exists is the rich world has LESS leisure time. In years gone by, the rich were considered rich when they didn’t even know what weekends were (“a weakened you say old chap?)..everyday was the same to them..a day to fill with enjoyable competitive and sporting activity..truth be told, a good number of investment banks still seem to operate in such a manner...some bankers expend so much worryingly criminal-like intellect inventing ways to pass time, it actually comforts to know they are kept securely cooped up in buildings on the islands of Manhattan and Canary Wharf..phew! Even those criminally rich now “work” longer than ever before and generally have fewer leisure hours.

More wealth meant more leisure time. The poorer you were the more you worked, doing the work of the rich, especially serving the rich. With modern living accoutrements and a more skewed income disparity, seems those days have certainly passed us by. Recent figures (from the Economist) suggest the poor are likely relatively happier as they are able to enjoy the simple things in life, like heading home when their regimented shift ends to tuck their kids into bed at a reasonable hour and taking full weekends off. They certainly do not have as much income to take home and hence fewer material things, but they have solid and known leisure time. Those involved in low-wage menial labour (cash poor/time rich) as opposed to highly-paid accountants and lawyers (cash rich/time poor) may be the secret to happiness.  Is making just enough to afford the treat of a prime-cut-of-meat for a relaxed family barbecue on Sunday not a better position to be in than stuck in the office whilst the family jet-off to the South of France to enjoy the sunshine without you..who's the lonely wife playing tennis with..hmmm? We’ll leave that one to more qualified philosophers out there.

Why are some cultures more successful than others in generating competitive economies? The weather seems to have a lot to do with it. In notoriously warm locations such as the Mediterranean coast, Latin American port cities and stiflingly humid Middle Eastern areas, a certain sense of languid,  laid-back “effort” prevails. From the indeterminate “mañana” of Spain to the good-luck-if-it-ever-happens “inshallah” of the GCC, you never really know when you are going to get something done. This is all well and good whilst on vacation…you can put up with a slightly lazy waiter whilst lounging on the beaches of Cancun say..but trying to do business in such an environment can result in rather more needless grey hairs. Sitting in a lush hotel lobby or office waiting lounge is not necessarily most people’s idea of grueling labour. Sitting for several hours, more than a few times a day for four days in a row becomes a little more than tedious, especially when you are half-way across the world on a running-clock of business expenses. “I’ll meet you in the lobby in five minutes habibi” – the last words of your meeting contact on the phone…one hour ago.

The colder climates have resulted in arguably more hard-working and over-achieving cultures, not to mention more “timely”. Before the advent of such creature comforts as central heating, just staying alive in such cold climates required extra exertion and a requirement to keep moving. Over evolutionary time, mixing these hard-wired work ethics with invitingly innovative environments, coupled with a distinct lack of stigma of failure, has proven itself a significant driver of success in the world’s most advanced economies. Those creating a business in such domains feel significantly less pressure of the shame of potential failure, nor psychological barriers...brought upon by the belief that all cultures are welcome and no one will judge you..it is as if one was shackled back home only to suddenly release their inhibitions and “find” themselves. Examples abound of Indian and Chinese software engineers “taking-a-risk” in Silicon Valley rather than falling into traditional-line back home, or aspiring Asian entrepreneurs flocking to London away from the judgemental eyes of their parents -proof in point.

So with the latest sensationalist headlines, will you find me dusting off my Mandarin language dictionary and once more believing the future of innovation is now in the Far East? Not quite. Not as long as great cities like London, New York, San Francisco and other tolerant societies provide the most alluring and dynamic platforms for those with a will to succeed. For now, we’re still happily making notes on the Food Network App, allowing one to plot a delicious route through some of the most heart-attack inducing barbecue shacks the world has created. Eating yourself to a yummy, sticky, tangy BBQ death…now that’s rich!