Twenty years is a long time: a good wine can mature beautifully in that time; babies grow into university-dwelling young adults and once sought after cars disappointingly turn into useless rust-buckets. The twentieth anniversary of the fall-of-a-wall in Berlin is simultaneously a reminder of how significant a change for Europe the 1989 occasion was, and how little has actually improved for those previously on the eastern side of the wall despite the best efforts of a unified Germany – and much of the international community for that matter.
Obama has been too busy getting his healthcare bill passed at home (mabrouk) to spend any time visiting the unfortunate scene of a military base massacre - leading to unfair accusations of not caring enough about the troops blah blah – any excuse amongst those still hostile to his now 12-mth old election win - or to jump on a plane with Hilary to visit Berlin in recognition of those 20yrs – maybe he just doesn’t really like the notion of being stuck on a 10hr plane ride with Hilary – can you blame him?
As markets recover from the disappointing employment numbers out of the US on Friday, Asia and Europe put in a good start to the week (up about 100bps on the major indices) despite a number of managers clearly winding down towards the end of the penultimate month. In the corporate world, Kraft has gone hostile – no more nice and sweet anymore but fangs out and ready to bite into (sorry!) the soft and sugary Cadbury’s shareholders with a proper bid with a little nudge from the UK takeover panel “put or shut-up” rule. This potential merger/takeover is a perfect example of a strong, corporate-bond-market-tapping entity seeking to expand its operations with a suitably mid-level emerging market operator. If it works, many more will follow across a number of industries.
Mid-East (only for fun) Gamble…
Lady-luck is a strikingly important figure in the game of poker – a favourite pastime of business-leaders, investment-banking-titans and even those that apparently never gamble but “just play for money with friends”. Anyone that has positioned themselves at a coveted seat of a major-stakes poker game and taken the time and pleasure in attempting to work on a special strategy or other motive towards making money will have no doubt realised, after a certain agonizing stint, that they are not indeed the major player originally anticipated and in fact the all-important sucker at the table – there’s always one. Spent longer than 15 minutes and still looking around trying to get a “feel” for the table? Well, too late buddy – everyone’s well on their way of feeling their way right up your trouser pocket to your wad of cash.
A game of poker is being played throughout the Middle East right now. Indeed, the first hand of the game was dealt about a year ago, as certain GCC states began to understand the disastrous consequences of an insatiable appetite for cheap money backfiring spectacularly as it disappeared as quickly as it had been gleefully handed out. There is a great deal of exquisitely positioned bluffing taking place between local and international entities, governments and powerful multi-nationals, governments and other (neighbouring) governments – culminating in an intriguing release of sound-bites often contradicting one another but nonetheless providing ample material for investors and pundits alike.
Bluffing, a most human of human evolutionary traits is an essential aspect of this clever game of poker. Wheeling and dealing with the others is a strategic and calculated play on seeking to profit from what you might be holding in your hands combined with an analysis of the facial ticks and expressions of your opponents. Very much like dealing/negotiating with your “opponents” sat across the re-financing discussion table.
The most alluring aspect of the game of poker? That would be the fact that there are no partnerships or collaborations, it really is a game of every-man-for-himself. The stakes are very high, but is there an ace hiding up someone’s sleeve?
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