Hippos go shopping

Golden performance…
Even more impressive than that rare footage of a bunch of protective hippos devouring an aggressively arrogant crocodile attempting to cross a pond across their backs is that markets continue to rise with many of the majors hitting new highs for the year. China and the US continue to pretend to want to be best-friends as their respective Presidents meet and gently-greet, Iran consistently “remembers” a nuclear site or two it had misplaced when the IAEA visited, Bernanke creates volatility for the US$ as he admits the jobless rate remains an issue large enough to see interest rates remain at their low-levels for a little while longer and a revelation by Buffet that he has invested in the world’s strongest brands (are we really surprised?) re-confirms the belief held throughout the worst-of-the-crisis that those with cash will (and indeed did) pick the best-of-the-bunch and profit handsomely going forwards.

As long as the global economy does not actually collapse that is. Doomsayers out there will no doubt be clinging on to a few reports of a growing “cyber-war” between a handful of nations as their fuel to fire-up more potential “return-to-barter” scenarios. In these still freshly uncertain times (not everyone is fooled by the recent sense of comfort) it can’t hurt to ride the rise of Gold just in case, as surely many must be now thinking when you remember some of the sniggering (you know who you are) when it was first suggested the spot price would be anywhere near $1,250/oz.

Well who’s considering melting down that gold-plated graduation present from their great aunt now huh? Cable is at 1.68, the Baltic Dry Index is up for the 34th day out of 36, Oil remains around the $80/brl level and the risk-trade is still on. The more that changes, the more things stay the same it seems.

Shopping your way-out…
A lot of media over the weekend kept a close eye on the run-up to the all-important shopping season, what with both Thanksgiving in the US and then Christmas round the corner. “Black Friday”, the single busiest shopping day of the year in the US is a traditional barometer for how the entire season’s shopping spend will pan-out. The large US stores go out of their way (which is more than can be said for some of the more persistent shoppers protecting their bargain finds) in providing tantalisingly attractive offers and enticing a greater US$ spend than normal.

This year, Black Friday will be an extremely expressive test of the US consumer. Last year the crisis was still so fresh and being lived through that a dampening sense of shock may have prevailed. 365 shopping days later and although the markets are looking stronger, the “real” economy we keep hearing about has been dragged through the dregs of despair and credit-card companies are no longer the generous Santas with sacks of cash but more Grinch-like collectors this festive season. Focusing on the actual top-line numbers will be a good indicator of consumer confidence and the general prevailing mood across the US.

Sticking with the shopping theme, only 5 weeks to go till Christmas itself and judging by the volume of seasonal advertisements and festive atmosphere in cities like London, both retailers and presumably authorities are keen to tap-into the “feel-good” factor that these few weeks bring. Shops and restaurants alike will be anticipating sharp increases in average spend as endless lunches, dinners and simply group outings add to the ringing of the tills – the imbibing of copious amounts of (highly profitable) alcohol nicely helping that merry feel develop.

Message for the hippos…
Attempting to alter behaviour through mass messaging is not a new thing of course. When coupled with the excuse that “it’s Christmas time” which wraps (pun) the entire commercial game into one big acceptable gift, most consumers normally cynical to the endless excuses for holiday shopping (who really needs Valentines apart from the romantically whipped and Red Rose sellers?) alleviate any tightening of their belts and let loose on otherwise useless items like, oh I don’t know…singing rats – for example.

In a large, exciting and cosmopolitan city like London, the seasonal euphoria is easily spread through suggestive and endless advertising, creating a widespread and powerful community excuse to bask in the glory of paid-for Christmas lights and actually spend some of the cash the government has desperately tried sticking in their pockets.

Spare a thought for that Crocodile, as anyone will sympathise during these busy shopping weeks (especially Black Friday) that has ventured to wade-through an entire lake of closely-huddled-and-protective hippos, sorry, I mean shopping mothers, only to unfortunately get caught by one and then devoured by the collective bunch.

Not a lot to give “thanks” for in that case and often a true nightmare before Christmas.