** Cold-Chickens Wars? ** - Monday 14th September

Playing chicken?
What’s going on out there? Did anyone predict that 2009 would mark the return of a historical scenario long-thought dissolved and conquered? No – we’re not talking about a near-return to 1930s depression-like markets, but more the reversion to a worryingly multi-lateral cold-war scenario that has all-of-a-sudden popped its head into the limelight (at a rather inopportune moment) with such stealth that many an observer would be shocked at how they didn’t see it coming – there’s always the beauty of hind-sight to cling to isn’t there? Not sure what’s scarier at the moment; the rising hostility between the US, China and Russia amidst the worst financial crisis we’ve encountered in over 70 years, or the equally shocking revelation of another horrible scenario - Elton John wanting to adopt a poor helpless young boy. Both cause one to shudder with fear.

As if it wasn’t bad enough that Obama’s still relatively young (yet quickly-becoming-necessarily-veteran) administration was in the midst of grappling with the small task of overhauling the entire healthcare system, managing the collapse of the financial infrastructure (not being helped by Stiglitz declaring underlying problems in the financial industry are actually now larger than before), and a whole load of superstitious and doom-portending individuals pouncing on the “it’s-been-a-year-since-we-faced-meltdown” situation, the double pronged attack consisting of a fresh trade dispute with China, and Russia’s rather irritating decision to sell a whole bunch of weapons to Chavez’s Venezuela ($2bn worth) must surely be eating into the President’s recreational basketball time. He’s clearly busy enough, what with having to prepare another big speech on the financial overhaul, trying to get to the final of the US Open (good luck), dealing with preparations for the next G20 Summit in Pittsburgh next week, not to mention wondering why he must now spend precious time worrying over situations he likely remembers as distant Cuban-Crisis-like-memories –when is he supposed to wind-down shooting-a-few-hoops huh? Dangerous move Russia and China. Very dangerous. Rumour has it Obama reaaaalllly values his basketball-time.

Tyres…tread carefully
So what’s the fuss over a few worn tyres and cold-chicken platters? Well, if you remember a few months back, the first rumblings of discontent were heard as an exchange of tariffs were positioned in a flurry after some misgivings over pork exports. It was all then looking so calm and amicable between the globe’s two most powerful nations over the summer-lull, with recent high-profile visits between trade and economic teams staving off any serious build-up of super-powered tension. However, with the sudden imposition of a US tyre-tariff on Chinese imports, the announcement of a probe into the alleged dumping of American auto and chicken products has now escalated the trade dispute into what might become the second round of a high-stakes-game-of-chicken. Of course, China’s Ministry of Commerce is citing “complaints’ from their industry representatives, and this would have nothing to do with the continuing tit-for-tat struggle for rising global influence – no, nothing like that at all.

So, what started as a slight rift is now unzipping itself even further to a potential full-blown trade dispute. In these recessionary times, any further ripples across the global import/export markets are certain to amplify the painfully sensitive and precarious position. More worrying still is the rhetoric that is beginning to emerge from both sides – China has accused the US of “rampant isolationist policies” with equally emotional retorts from the US – what with all the problems they’re facing one would forgive a slight tremble in the voice.

Remember remember…
The financial media must be bored. After the BBC put together an excellent, well-measured and very insightful “aftershock” programme marking the 12-mths since Lehman’s collapse (shouldn’t it really be called, Paulson’s-personal-vendetta-against-Dick-Fuld?) other financial channels are spending endless amounts of time re-hashing, minute-by-minute, experiences during those dark days. Could they not have waited a little longer? Learning from mistakes is only worthwhile when the problem has been fully solved – we’re still deep in the midst of the main trouble. A suggestion - with financial markets seemingly oblivious to any of the encircling issues (all majors markets are trading higher for the month, again), commodity prices holding steady after a strong run (Gold dipping slightly below $1,000/oz, Oil levelling just below %70/brl), and currencies also taking a slight break from some moves away from US$ (Cable at 1.66) as that old “risk-trade” is (possibly briefly) fashionable again, world leaders would do well to sit back and watch a few episodes of a delightfully insightful and satirical comedy show called 30 Rock. A couple of scenes in particular in the middle of the second season (you’ll see what I mean) would go a long way to solving the trade dispute mentioned above. Not sure about what it would do to alleviate concern over Russia’s arms-sale to Chavez though.

Following last week’s appalling disclosure that women in the workplace are sometimes underpaid by up to 80% in contrast to their male peers, it is heartening to see that at least in the world of sport, tennis to be exact, not only are women paid equal to their male peers at the US Open (maybe the threat of legal action in litigation-happy-US simply too great a threat), but they really are able to attain that holy-grail of the female workplace - mixing parenthood with a successful career as just exemplified by the emphatic win by new-mum Kim Clijsters.

Let’s hope all this renewed below-the-line aggression between China, Russia and the US does not spill over into the world of sport, or worse still, the example that Clijster’s can take time-off to have a child and still beat the field at the best of their game give rise to Elton John’s amateur tennis aspirations - just imagine the outfit he would show up in at Wimbledon- if he successfully adopts that poor kid.