** $17bn Chocolate Chunks ** - Monday 7th September

** $17bn Chocolate Chunks ** - Monday 7th September

Unrequited Chocolate-loving….
A $17bn bar of chocolate anyone? Mmmm, that sounds like a darn satisfying amount of cocoa if you ask me, but it didn’t seem to impress Cadbury’s who just a few hours ago dismissed the amorous approaches of the (slightly saltier) buds of Kraft foods, in what will surely be the first of many approaches in a protracted and elaborate mating dance. Cadbury’s shares naturally riding high on the news, +14%, and short of a few fruit and nuts, Kraft’s delectably appetising offer at 30% premium to last Friday’s closing price will undoubtedly excite even the most sour of shareholder’s taste buds. Statements already released from both parties indicating a definite desire to continue the dialogue as Kraft seeks to woo its target with a substantially greater offering than just sweet nothings.

Elsewhere, Libya does its best to keep itself firmly mounted in the pariah state depths of opinion, with Blair now suddenly appearing in the midst of the political melee - wait, was it really that much of a surprise the big-cheque loving (he’s even more excited by Oil) ex-prime minister was lurking around this somewhere? Japan of course turned a major page in its political history on electing the Democratic Party of Japan after almost half-a-century of domination by the Liberal Democratic Party – many are hoping the similar sounding names of the political parties will not simply mean more of the same, as the country is in dire need of a strong jolt to get it back on track. A new report suggests there is a link between improved memory and computer gaming – giving rise to a thousand cheers from teens all across as they run back to their darkened rooms and continue another round of “Halo 3” thinking their ticket to the Ivy League is through Level 28 and not the dusty old text-book beside the console – sorry kids (and some sad movie-stars), but apparently fashionable Twitter “numbs” the brain.

Classy Anniversary.,.
So what’s really been going on in the last few weeks? Having spent a decent amount of time outside the Middle East, gathering precious information about the state-of-play across the US, and then gauging that back in London for a few more days, the vibe across the Western world did definitely appear positive and quite relaxed about the economic prospects in the foreseeable future. London especially seemed as care free as any time one might remember, almost harking back to the days before the dreaded Lehman collapse (Happy Anniversary by the way Dick Fuld!), with restaurants once more filled-to-the-brim and even Canary Wharf showing more than the bare minimum pulse of life it had been existing on for so many months – the two-for-one lunch specials had noticeably reduced in propensity and more people were eating sandwiches from the likes of Pret-A-Manger than sitting on benches huddled over a home-made packed lunch – guess there’s only so much cheese and pickle a middle-manager can take.
Anecdotal evidence gathered from various vacationing sources suggested a similar tale across the rest of Europe, with apparently even greater displays of wealth and some seriously ostentatious behaviour in that ever-so-classy-and-in-no-way-pretentious-hangout of the secure and confident – St Tropez. Were people partying because they really could and had much to celebrate, or simply thankful that they had survived this far and decided to enjoy themselves before it all turns sour again?

And what about the Middle East at the moment? Well, it’s still kinda hot, sticky and - quite frankly - boring. Ramadan is of course in full swing (those fasting, take heart that the half-way point has now been surpassed, it’s all about the countdown to Eid ) which translates into excuses for not working kicking-up-a-gear across swathes of the GCC – a good time to discuss markets and future performance predictions with languid investment managers across the region. Consensus seems to be picking up on recent worries that a “double-dip” has a 25% chance of occurring but with such large amounts of cash being sat on across their portfolios it doesn’t seem that any major shifts in investment policy are required. Rather inactive even at the best of times, regional fund managers appear content to sit on whatever modest (and certainly welcome) gains they have been lucky enough to achieve over the last several months. Again, most cannot honestly anticipate a trouble-free remainder to the year, and it is this nagging worry at the back of their minds that is preventing a greater allocation to equity markets.

A woman scorned…
Anyone reading the weekend press would have had a look at a number of different opinions following the mixed and jittery performance last week across global markets. The more interesting reports were not about financial markets but the continuing human aspects to the recession that just don’t seem to want to go away.
A related and shocking (if you’re not a man) story focused on how women apparently earn a far lesser amount than men in the financial services industry – this really comes as no surprise given the long-standing male-dominance of the club-like band of investment banks, but the sheer scale of discrepancy – 80% according to some calculations - paints a pretty sexist picture. What with all the negative press the financial industry has been attracting as of late, this is exactly the type of trouble most would want to avoid.
Maybe most male bosses in the investment banking world just figured their women employees were just as happy with a few bars of fattening chocolate as a fat pay-check.