Iran's Revolutionary Chess Game

Iran’s Revolution – check-mate…
When playing chess one does not normally see their opponent, who has played every move as carefully as possible - with intricate, considered and forward-thinking strategy for hours and hours - suddenly fling a door-wide open in a moment of fatigue-induced-lack-of-judgement, leading to a spectacularly self-defeating check-mate position. Iran’s ruling (and elderly) clergy appear to have played their way into that very ignominious honour in their alleged rigging of last weekend’s Presidential election – a sudden and momentous movement, albeit fuelled by a long-rumbling and growing emotion of apathy towards the ruling governmental system, spilled over into outright aggression and exasperation directed at a blatantly autocratic and unrepresentative decision.

Whatever the outcome of the next most crucial 48hrs in Iran’s last 30yrs (since the original revolution in 1979 in fact) historians will forever look unkindly at the desperate clinging-to-power of an apparently aged and out-of-tune with reality/technology authority – that desperation is what led to the incredulous decision that has now brought the best out of the Iranian people.

Having heard the views and opinions of many throughout the political spectrum, Iranians spread long and wide are all sure of one thing – the time has come for change – and not just figurehead change, real deep, theological change. The most remarkable element covering developments in the last several days, the impulsive and heart-warming coming together of a variety of differing backgrounds and political beliefs – once non-communicative factions of the same race, are all pulling together as they sense and act-upon an important and unavoidable set of events. The dangers ahead for those brave enough to continue to stand against what they see as a crumbling institution, a worthy risk in the opinion of the majority. The absolute sense of “enough-is-enough” overriding (in an admirable selfless manner) concern for personal safety – at times of great change, great acts of heroism abound.

Where this has maybe been witnessed before (the student revolution of 1999, and even some protests back in 2003 as the US went to war with Iraq) the general consensus acknowledges that things are different this time around – the most significant difference being talk of a split in the ruling Islamic-clergy itself. This would point to a philosophical and seismic divide in the very roots of the Islamic revolution and its supporters. With rumours spreading of a growing discontent at the clearly ill-thought-out decision to reinstate the widely-disliked Ahmadinejad, the next major split would be any dissent within the ranks of the so-far zealously supportive (and brutally efficient) Revolutionary Guard. With the Ayotallah declaring an investigation into the alleged vote fraud, sides will have to be taken.

Being ordered to open-fire upon your own population and those that you may well-know and love, may for once prove too tall-an-order – especially if the peaceful manner in which the rallying protesters are carrying out their “revolt” continues. How long would the international committee really be able to sit on the sidelines (the sidelines here being coalition troops stationed in both neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan) and be witness to what (God forbid) may turn-out to be a Tiananmen Sq like crack-down? For how long would those asked to fire-upon their own people continue to take orders from a clearly despotic ruling body?

Noticeably, the US have kept a very low-profile during this entire process, not wanting to outwardly taint any of the natural grass-roots movements from the totally fed-up Iranian youth. The more cynical out there may point to the stoking of the revolutionary fire by means other than military and political exertion – the use of technology mediums to simply stimulate and support the desire to effect change that certainly has fostered from within the youth movement. The fact that neighbours who used to ignore one another in the street are now standing side-by-side either on the city-squares of Tehran or outside Iranian embassies around the world, a testament to the power of networking bringing people together under one common goal.

Although his name is associated as a key pragmatist in these dramatic turn of events, Moussavi is more a means-to-an-end for the people of Iran than the dependent-tool-for-change. He appears to have stumbled upon a flammable collection of impatience and absolute exasperation – there is clearly only so much humiliation and ridicule a people can stand-by and watch their country suffer when the reality within is that it is but an extremist minority that represent the far more moderate majority. Following the victorious display of democracy in Lebanon, and the (not totally perfect but at least it’s there) growing democracy in Iraq, why should the people of Iran not have their own moment of glory?

Once again, the desperate act to re-instate Ahmadinejad at any cost may likely prove too large a cost to handle, and forever be remembered as the final self-destructive act of a dictatorship that tired-itself out playing the game of chess.