Barack of Arabia

Barack of Arabia…
Amazing what a few words pronounced correctly in Arabic can achieve across a population of faith that makes up 1/3 of the world. When declaring “peace be onto you” in a near-perfect (Egyptian tinged) accent millions of attitudes and long-hardened views instantly transcended the stereotypes beholden to supposed US-hating-Muslims.
Will a great speech solve issues between the Middle East and the West that have existed for two generations? Despite the elegant rhetoric and super-star status the current US President has been anointed with - one thinks not. More importantly maybe, what about the issues that exist within the Middle East and the divisions within the vast Muslim population itself? These issues have existed for far longer than simple two generations, stretching back hundreds, if not thousands of years. Yes, Obama is certainly an inspiring character and has already done plenty to change perceptions of America, but he is dealing with a territory that has befuddled all before him.
With elections in Lebanon in a couple of days, Iran holding its own swiftly after that, as well as the recent overtures towards the two-state solution in Israel/Palestine, a moment of importance is certainly upon us in this most volatile and flammable of regions. Anything resembling a slight victory for Obama’s efforts would be a Herculean effort. The main obstacle in most Middle Eastern pundits’ opinion? That would be the Arabs themselves. Divisions amongst the variant populations and governments of the region must be set-aside for proper peace and growth – Saudi’s role here is critical.
Once this has been achieved, the true potential of the region’s economic might and industries will being to flourish. Only then will international markets and investors realise the wealth of opportunity that exists within the local markets that have nothing to do with the oil and gas industries. Recent performances across the MENA region have, naturally, closely correlated with the oil price, and the fickleness of hot money in and out does not help to stabilise reputations amongst the local major corporations.

Related to Obama’s visit of course is the price of Oil. We are now nearing the $70/brl level that has appeared an inevitable target ever since the Saudi’s declared it as their preferable target. With King Abdullah placing a very over-sized gold medallion around the US President’s neck on his recent visit to the Kingdom, it seemed he was being anointed as one of their own – could you imagine that rather more diminutive Bush attempting to handle the sheer weight of the “necklace”?

Non-farm super-star payroll…
On the markets, all about the non-farm payrolls today (-520k cons.). Keep your eyes open for any potential disappointment. The unemployment rate released at the same time an equal measure of confidence building/destroying strength, markets expecting 9.2% here. Would be the highest unemployment figure the US has experienced in over 25yrs. Markets so far pricing in what might be a within-range announcement, with DJIA+35pts, S&P+4.3pts, not to mention some good performance to bring the week to a close throughout Europe, with most majors +0.7-1.0%.
Asia did quite well, with only Taiwan and China’s CSi300 slightly disappointing (-0.28%, -0.45%) within an otherwise sea-of-green again for the newly attractive riskier emerging markets there. Most YTD returns are still between 35% and 60% with Australasia quietly performing consistently in the last few days (helped today with Rio Tinto throwing a deal back in the face of the Chinese in favour of an iron ore venture with BHP Billiton.
On currencies, Gordon Brown’s woes in the UK following continued delving of hands in the expense-honey-jar by his MPs (to be fair, the conservatives have been sticking their hands in quite deep as well) is hurting the recent spurt in cable in GBP’s favour as we have come back from the attempt to push through 1.65 right back to 1.60 – of course, much of this was the normal overshooting when Treasuries first started selling-off and the technicals now point to a few weeks of oscillation between 1.56-1.61.

Mid-East Hotels, as easy as “W”…X, Y and Z…
If you gauge a city by its hotels, then Dubai has certainly stolen the limelight in the Middle East with an easy win over any of its closest rivals for sheer variety and number of luxury establishments. Whilst Abu Dhabi may have the largest and most expensive (Emirates Palace), not to mention most luxuriously traditional, Dubai as opted for a variety of business and leisure destinations that serve as the life-blood of the entertainment industry. Drinks can only be had in these hotel bars, and all the best restaurants are found nestled within their walls.
All the headlines have been generated by these hotels, sometimes even long before they open – such as the world’s first Armani hotel in the Burj Dubai. However, if you believe a city’s character is developed through its hospitality inns, as many Gulf states are by virtue of its visiting bankers and tourists, then Qatar’s capital of Doha must take the prize for the most forward looking hotel of the moment – the “W”. If ever there has been a hotel that contrasts itself so screamingly-clear from the rest of its host city’s surroundings and general aura, this must be it.
A fantastic hotel destination, with a great vibe and exceptionally “happening” feel to it. It is still more of a sign-of-things-to-come rather than a sign-of-what-is-there, especially when considering the following response to a declaration of how well-designed and enjoyable the signature bar is by a resident ex-pat, “yeah, it’s a great bar, but it’s still in Doha”. A little more time needed maybe.