Location = Egypt, Egypt, Egypt
You leave the world for a few months and what happens? Apart from approaching the brink of total-meltdown across the Middle East, stranger things abound - like Berlusconi “no-I’m-not-having-a-power-trip-crisis” throwing notoriously rowdy and surprisingly well photographed soirees - without inviting us - or the sudden emergence of China at Obama’s doorstep with full global-super-power-welcome-parade (what..no one in the US had realised they were sort-of powerful before?), royal weddings shaping future travel plans for thousands of tourists via Heathrow (if it’s not snowed over) and of course, the most important significant event of the last 6-mths or so, Dubai’s opening of the incredibly originally named “At.Mosphere” (honestly – how do these PR guys sleep at night?…maybe only a little more soundly than bankers) in the majestic Burj Khalifa. Nope, not been there yet, but then again there have been some more important issues to deal with apart from sipping on what is surely the highest-priced (yep, big pun) vodka-martini in the world.
I wish there were a happier note on which to return to commentary on what appears to be a world in continual turmoil, but if this is what path we have ahead of us then we must travel accordingly – no? If we do not seize the opportunity now and here to do what is only right, the very benefit of having raised our heads above the African Savannah (bear with me here) thousands of years ago to separate ourselves from beast, what good is the development and sacrifice that so many have made before us?
Those are admittedly lofty words, but meant as a projection of the tone encompassing the last few weeks. Events have brought much of such effusive and supposedly inspiring tales of progress and development from all corners. In fact, it has been nigh impossible to read through a well-respected journal or switch on a proper news network (no Fox News, alas not you) without being met with a deluge of lofty rhetoric and singing praise for the ever-changing winds of progress – from South East Asia’s continued economic progress, along China’s ascent to proper global-stage-protagonist, across the incredibly flammable Middle East (more below), transcending Europe’s lofty single-currency aspirations and the US’s “Sputnik” movement of urgency and hope – the world is as breathlessly filled with seemingly insurmountable obstacles as memory serves. Then again, every generation always believes it is facing the most fraught period of development for humanity. So far so good. No reason to believe this is about to change now. That would be incredibly arrogant of us wouldn’t it? Try telling that to the fear-loving journalists out there.
Egypt - A People’s Fear?
Two words. Suez and Canal. In fact three; Suez, Canal and Israel. Notice the blaring omission of normally automatically word-associated “oil” pinned to the Middle East.
The constant stream of journalists lavishing unbounded praise and seemingly heartfelt admiration on Tunisians and Egyptians (as well as the broader “restless Arab street”) may end in regretfully cringing backtracking.
There is no doubt that the uprising of those oppressed for so many years at the hands of corrupt and crony-loving Western-placed leadership dynasties is a good thing. There is also no denying that the poverty that exists across the greater populous, at the sake of the incredibly wealthy few across the Levant and North African countries, is a direct result of excessive years of preferential treatment to those willing to acquiesce to the perceived greater good (for “good” read: smooth transportation of affordable oil).
Without pretending to be a deeply-knowledgeable expert on all things Egyptian (as so many news reporters suddenly appear to be), it doesn’t take a genius to sit back and wonder where exactly all this popular uprising will go. The problem is that this may all end in tears again. A la Iran. Back in 1979, the world first greeted the Iranian revolution with a sense of content and admiration that a people were taking it upon themselves to move aside a force they considered detrimental to the country’s great future. The Shah was loved in the West more than he was at home. Many thought the Shah Royalty were moving Iran in the right direction, but the surprising backlash erupted and concluded in what is, ominously still today, a bewildering move towards Islamic fundamentalism.
Spin-the-wheel
What happened there you ask? A simply answer really – human nature. In extreme cases of uncertainty and subconscious fear, masses will be moved by the few that display poise and a clear-calming strategy. Fear leads to impulsive decisions and a large dose of “crowd theory”. Fear is the rational politician’s best friend. That excitement and adrenalin of revolution is not always pure joy but more a total sense of fear-shock-adrenaline of the unknown - like sitting at a Vegas roulette table with a 1 million Dollars on black and those ten (nine…eight…seven), unbearably frightening (exciting?) seconds of wheel-spinning-ball-bouncing-watching. If someone came to you half-way through the spin and suggested you run away with half your winnings, would you listen? That is the issue here. Will the people of Egypt really get what they want at the end of this saga. Or will an exceedingly tactful and well-timed extremist leadership take advantage of a power vacuum and appeal to the short-term sensibilities of the masses? Iran in 1978 didn’t think Khomeini would be their leader in 1979. Whom are the Egyptians hoping for as their leader in 2012?
Mass media and the internet have changed everything, I hear you scream in disapproval of the above scenario. The world we live in is vastly different in every conceivable way from 1979. The people of Egypt are more savvy and aware. Technology and social awareness has seen to that, they say. They will not give in to charismatic and affably attractive short-term promises of greater reform as a result. That may well be, but the power of the individual to rally an entire group of bewildered (and once again – frightened) poverty-stricken protesters is arguably more potent than any amount of Twittering. The average shop-keeper on the streets of Cairo doesn’t update his Tweet via his IPhone. No, he’s more interested in finding out where tomorrow’s trade is coming from to feed his family. As loud the voice of the crowd is today via mass communication, the power and effective eloquence of the individual’s rallying-cry, echoes as vividly as ever above a cacophony.
Don’t be fooled by the naïve and hysterical “we-sense-a-24-hour-coverage-bonanza” media coverage. Read the history books and analyse the Arab street for yourself. That is to say, speak to people who have lived through such revolutions. Even Lebanon’s revolt against Syrian intervention in 2006 has resulted in some then unforeseen ramifications. A move towards extremism is dangerous for all involved. Only open dialogue and calm, controlled discussions in a suitable state of discourse will bring about the lasting sense of justice that so many around the Middle East seek. Sudden change and revolt will only temporarily solve the solution. The cracks in the proverbial Arab wall cannot be plastered over forever.
Sure it is admirable to sit and watch the people take matters into their own hands. Do the people look towards the bigger picture though? Whoever ends up as the (hopefully) democratically elected leader of a disjointed people inherits control of one of the world’s most important shipping conduits. The world has gone to war before over the Suez Canal. No one can be sure it will not again. Decisions over foreign policy, not least the now-precariously-placed peace treaty with Israel, will surely be high on the agenda of the international community, but crucially, not that of the Egyptians who are revolting for themselves, not the international community. This is a misalignment in interests that may well prove disastrous to the longer-term picture for the global community.
There are several scenarios where this plays out to, none of which will solve the issue fully for at least another few years.
1. Probable: Mohammed El-Baradei is elected leader in a properly democratic election and attempts to maintain most of what the West perceive as a desirable status quo with Israel and its allies. Egyptians are temporarily placated by winning their right-to-vote and have it counted, but the issue of poverty does not disappear overnight.
2. Hopefully Not: An international peace-keeping force is sent in under the auspices of maintaining an open and free trading route via the Suez Canal. Low-level protests and a general discontent continues for several inconclusive years (possibly ending in the same conclusion as below).
3. Far-fetched but mistakes can be made: Mubarak clings on and brings bloodshed and chaos to a country otherwise interested in moving onwards commercially and economically. The Muslim Brotherhood sense their opportunity and call for a total revolution, which succeeds. Israel then must consider an invasion.
The troubles in Egypt might reflect a growing and dangerous dissatisfaction with the ineffectual “leadership” within the always volatile Middle East (history has a nasty way of repeating itself over thousands and thousands of years, just ask the Mesopotamians and Byzantines) but what we are seeing today is more a cause of what some inwardly critical geopolitical commentators have correctly cited as “immature Western policy”. One only hopes that this generation’s governing powers read their history books and tread along a path with longer-term vision than many of those in recent memory.
Let’s hope they grow up fast.
Hani Kobrossi
Monday, 31 January 2011
Sunday, 11 July 2010
Summer-loving
** Summer-loving ** 11th July
Mobile: +971 502 899 395 (UK Mobile: +44 7770 694 494)
Honey-traps, spy-swaps, renegade prisoners, quiet politicians and the best week for financial markets in a year (Dow Jones +5.1%) as the world’s largest ever IPO gets going from another giant Chinese bank (Agricultural Bank of China - $22.1bn), punctuated a week that sees the start of the summer holidays in earnest, as the last of the schools shut their doors till September..ahh, those where the days of 3-mth long school summers. Another small victory for China in tandem with rising exports above expectations saw Google back-down from its chest-thumping as the allure of huge-profits overrode its “social-concerns” and subsequently brought the renewal of its operating licence on the Chinese mainland. As pressure momentarily eases for those involved in the always-strenuous financial world, it seems pressure has been increasingly emanating from FIFA on the incredible Madeeba (Nelson Mandela) to attend the closing ceremony of the world-cup tonight and it’s culmination as he hands the trophy over to Spain – yep, Spain.
Hotly-underprepared
You know summer is in full swing across the streets of great cities like London, when almost every spare square inch of pub-garden-space and pavement is battled over, ice-cream van queues packed with sweaty-children stretch for miles and restaurants mysteriously run-out of ice just when you order that all-important wine-chiller-bucket – I’ve never understood why they don’t stock-up the night before? Air-conditioning machines are as rare as an England World Cup win and the city generally does not cater for the heat, simply because it does not normally experience anything resembling a traditional summer!
A city more accustomed to the stereotypical doom and gloom of rain and heavy-grey-overcast transforms into a resplendent world-capital-city in the glorious sunshine, even if very few Londoners have actually gotten any sleep in the last month during those balmy evenings. If only the British would learn to refrain from complaining no matter what temperatures they are faced with. It doesn’t take a genius in the meteorological department to figure-out summers are getting hotter. Enterprising air-conditioning firms are working over-time to rip-off, I mean charge customers for urgent installations.
The London summers also brings another kind-of-wave. The annual Middle Eastern month-long-tour-of-Knightsbridge is well under-way, with the cars, the bling and the musky-scents all in full-force around Harrods and a few other carefully selected establishments, but little really outside SW1 (for more info please see last year’s piece: http://hanikobrossi.blogspot.com/2009/07/sands-of-sw1.html)
With the economic crisis putting the UK towards the very-top-of-the-list-in-debt-to-GDP, austerity packages introduced in recent weeks and a concern for maintaining Sterling’s competitive position in the global currency market (Cable currently 1.50, exactly where the exporters and retailers want it) the welcome influx of oil-money spreading its way across every-facet of London life, from taxis to restaurants, the Dorchester to Harvey Nichols, should not be looked down at but rather openly welcomed. London is a lucky enough capital city to continue to attract the big-spenders from all over the world and ensures its always robust and enviable position as a city never destined for a deep-recession. There is simply far too much money here for that to occur and far too much money willing to enter the city on top of that.
Know-thy-voluptuous-enemy
Knowing your enemy when faced in battle is a critical factor in deciding between the victor and the vanquished. Getting into the minds and comprehending the culture of those that you are in conflict with is the only method to truly anticipating their movements and strategy. Ancient armies would frequently capture enemy soldiers and rather than subject to torture, bestow upon them gifts and other lavishes (you can guess what) to elicit nuggets-of-information about their home kind. So with all this knowledge of historically tried and tested methods, why are so many rookie mistakes made at top-levels of defence management? A recent report that, at the UK’s not-so-“secret” eavesdropping HQ , far-too-few ethnic minorities are employed surprises given the current commotion surrounding the revelation and subsequent deportation of a number of Russian and US spies.
In this day and age of global-fear-of-terrorism and constant communication coupled with the breakdown of cultural barriers across great swathes of the globe, all in the name of the “internet”, it is amazing that such a critical aspect of national-security and intelligence gathering can be overlooked. How can you truly tap-into the psyche of a hostile people and use that knowledge for good, if those willing to assist you are not given ample opportunity in the correct positions of influence. Even worse, apparently those ethnic minorities that are employed by such “intelligence-gathering” agencies are constantly subjected to taunts and remarks combined with ceaseless doubts of their allegiances – now come on, if you cannot even trust those that you have asked to help with the very matter of defusing a potentially volatile situation half-way across the world what hope is there for the peaceful conclusion of any efforts made in that actual land? Incredible how the lesson taught by history is all too-often ignored
On the spying theme, the heavy media interest in the swap that took place this week in docile Vienna can be attributed to the glamorisation of “spies”. The apparently low-level comrades deported from the US – even the ever-eloquent-Biden said “those guys didn’t really do very much while here” – were scrutinised from every angle and their entire life-stories picked through for the world to see. Not such a difficult thing these days with everyone posting endless photo-journals of their boring daily activities on Facebook.
The story quickly narrowed in-on, of course, of the more...shall we say...“easy-on-the-eye”...voluptuous Russian-with-an-English-name, Anna Chapman. The fascination across the City of London was especially amusing as investment bankers across the square-mile and as far as Canary Wharf could all be heard exclaiming “but I’ve definitely bought her a few drinks before!” on the revelation she had lived and worked in London’s financial industry for several years and under (ahem) some of those very same bankers.
Hani Kobrossi
Mobile: +971 502 899 395 (UK Mobile: +44 7770 694 494)
Honey-traps, spy-swaps, renegade prisoners, quiet politicians and the best week for financial markets in a year (Dow Jones +5.1%) as the world’s largest ever IPO gets going from another giant Chinese bank (Agricultural Bank of China - $22.1bn), punctuated a week that sees the start of the summer holidays in earnest, as the last of the schools shut their doors till September..ahh, those where the days of 3-mth long school summers. Another small victory for China in tandem with rising exports above expectations saw Google back-down from its chest-thumping as the allure of huge-profits overrode its “social-concerns” and subsequently brought the renewal of its operating licence on the Chinese mainland. As pressure momentarily eases for those involved in the always-strenuous financial world, it seems pressure has been increasingly emanating from FIFA on the incredible Madeeba (Nelson Mandela) to attend the closing ceremony of the world-cup tonight and it’s culmination as he hands the trophy over to Spain – yep, Spain.
Hotly-underprepared
You know summer is in full swing across the streets of great cities like London, when almost every spare square inch of pub-garden-space and pavement is battled over, ice-cream van queues packed with sweaty-children stretch for miles and restaurants mysteriously run-out of ice just when you order that all-important wine-chiller-bucket – I’ve never understood why they don’t stock-up the night before? Air-conditioning machines are as rare as an England World Cup win and the city generally does not cater for the heat, simply because it does not normally experience anything resembling a traditional summer!
A city more accustomed to the stereotypical doom and gloom of rain and heavy-grey-overcast transforms into a resplendent world-capital-city in the glorious sunshine, even if very few Londoners have actually gotten any sleep in the last month during those balmy evenings. If only the British would learn to refrain from complaining no matter what temperatures they are faced with. It doesn’t take a genius in the meteorological department to figure-out summers are getting hotter. Enterprising air-conditioning firms are working over-time to rip-off, I mean charge customers for urgent installations.
The London summers also brings another kind-of-wave. The annual Middle Eastern month-long-tour-of-Knightsbridge is well under-way, with the cars, the bling and the musky-scents all in full-force around Harrods and a few other carefully selected establishments, but little really outside SW1 (for more info please see last year’s piece: http://hanikobrossi.blogspot.com/2009/07/sands-of-sw1.html)
With the economic crisis putting the UK towards the very-top-of-the-list-in-debt-to-GDP, austerity packages introduced in recent weeks and a concern for maintaining Sterling’s competitive position in the global currency market (Cable currently 1.50, exactly where the exporters and retailers want it) the welcome influx of oil-money spreading its way across every-facet of London life, from taxis to restaurants, the Dorchester to Harvey Nichols, should not be looked down at but rather openly welcomed. London is a lucky enough capital city to continue to attract the big-spenders from all over the world and ensures its always robust and enviable position as a city never destined for a deep-recession. There is simply far too much money here for that to occur and far too much money willing to enter the city on top of that.
Know-thy-voluptuous-enemy
Knowing your enemy when faced in battle is a critical factor in deciding between the victor and the vanquished. Getting into the minds and comprehending the culture of those that you are in conflict with is the only method to truly anticipating their movements and strategy. Ancient armies would frequently capture enemy soldiers and rather than subject to torture, bestow upon them gifts and other lavishes (you can guess what) to elicit nuggets-of-information about their home kind. So with all this knowledge of historically tried and tested methods, why are so many rookie mistakes made at top-levels of defence management? A recent report that, at the UK’s not-so-“secret” eavesdropping HQ , far-too-few ethnic minorities are employed surprises given the current commotion surrounding the revelation and subsequent deportation of a number of Russian and US spies.
In this day and age of global-fear-of-terrorism and constant communication coupled with the breakdown of cultural barriers across great swathes of the globe, all in the name of the “internet”, it is amazing that such a critical aspect of national-security and intelligence gathering can be overlooked. How can you truly tap-into the psyche of a hostile people and use that knowledge for good, if those willing to assist you are not given ample opportunity in the correct positions of influence. Even worse, apparently those ethnic minorities that are employed by such “intelligence-gathering” agencies are constantly subjected to taunts and remarks combined with ceaseless doubts of their allegiances – now come on, if you cannot even trust those that you have asked to help with the very matter of defusing a potentially volatile situation half-way across the world what hope is there for the peaceful conclusion of any efforts made in that actual land? Incredible how the lesson taught by history is all too-often ignored
On the spying theme, the heavy media interest in the swap that took place this week in docile Vienna can be attributed to the glamorisation of “spies”. The apparently low-level comrades deported from the US – even the ever-eloquent-Biden said “those guys didn’t really do very much while here” – were scrutinised from every angle and their entire life-stories picked through for the world to see. Not such a difficult thing these days with everyone posting endless photo-journals of their boring daily activities on Facebook.
The story quickly narrowed in-on, of course, of the more...shall we say...“easy-on-the-eye”...voluptuous Russian-with-an-English-name, Anna Chapman. The fascination across the City of London was especially amusing as investment bankers across the square-mile and as far as Canary Wharf could all be heard exclaiming “but I’ve definitely bought her a few drinks before!” on the revelation she had lived and worked in London’s financial industry for several years and under (ahem) some of those very same bankers.
Hani Kobrossi
Saturday, 26 June 2010
Burger-nomics
** Burger-nomics ** 21st-25th June
Mobile: +971 502 899 395 (UK Mobile: +44 7770 694 494)
There are of course serious events taking place this week where world leaders gather to discuss the still stubbornly bad economy. They desperately seek a resolution that will ensure the viability of the current banking system and permit trust in sovereign debt for some years to come. The “Golden Rule” here? Well, he who has the gold - makes the rules. Watch for a number of well-sounding-bites-of-wisdom from the opposing US and Chinese delegations as the G8 followed by the G20 (wouldn’t want the others feeling left out now would we?) sit in Canada – my personal favourite this week “The economy is like water. Water does not boil at 99 degrees, but one extra centigrade can make a lot of difference” – classic stuff from China’s Confucius pedigree . Who says economics is not mired in science huh?
Our favourite scene of the geopolitical week? Easy come on! What better photo-op than Obama munching on a burger with Medvedev whilst sharing a portion of fries at “Ruth’s Hell Burger”? I’m sure there are many ways to break-the-ice between two leaders of quite-large nuclear arsenals (still pointed at one another) but here’s hoping Obama’s method doesn’t backfire with a nasty case of meat-poisoning. Lucky for Obama that they weren’t ordering a burger in Dubai from the always reliable waiting-staff, or they may have ended up with a resplendent specimen adorned with all the necessary trimmings but missing one vital ingredient – the patty itself! Yep, it recently did happen in one of Dubai’s swankier hotels, seriously. Obama’s critics will no doubt point to a soft-approach, fretting about concessions being made and the US appearing “weak” but others will agree that Obama’s personality is continuing to show the US is maturing as a super-power and recognising the importance of avoiding past mistakes that have proven costly and destructive. An open-minded-manner in approaching geopolitics must be a better way of doing things.
Even more impressive than the records broken at Wimbledon - with the longest match in history having been battled out over an incredible 70-68 games in the final set over a muscle-aching 12 hours - was the fact that not a single drop of rain managed to find its way onto any of the courts as the sun-shone down on a wonderfully dry collection of strawberry munching spectators. Some of the fun will have been dented by the UK’s announcement of a hike in VAT by 2.5% to 20% - less cream on top of those strawberries next year. Another surprise for England was of course their football team’s ability (term used loosely) to finally put some effort behind their professed “love-for-the-game” and string together one-or-two passes to bring about a goal. France’s failure to proceed to the knock-out stages was well deserved (karma can be a cruel mistress – just ask Thierry Henry’s hand) and the Bafana-Bafana brigade were able to achieve little more than an outpouring of supporter empathy by having the ignominious honour of being the first host nation to fail to make it to the second round. The fun in the world cup is really just getting going, and true political rivalries will now come into play with matches such as England vs Germany bringing out the worst in the British (and German to be honest) press. Some colourful headlines surely being read right now. Will Cameron and Merkel even shake hands at the end of the G20 or will they simply swap shirts? – ewwww, come to think of it, please just shake hands Angela.
China’s Move...
Currency markets have not exactly continued to jump up-and-down-with-joy after what seemed like an earth-shattering decision to allow a strengthening of the Renminbi. Initial euphoria at the top-of-the-week swiftly turned as dry as an over-cooked Chinese stir-fry – within 48 hours to be precise. As with most China official department announcements, the importance of last week’s significant financial alteration is only perceived by listening to what was not said. No clear direction or level was mentioned, and only an ambiguous desire to maintain “stability” of the strengthening economy’s path-to-success and possible transformation to a consumer society touted.
The move was of course timed to coincide with the aforementioned G20, but those more savvy investors and China-watchers out-there had known about the decision for some weeks. The real effect was a reinforcement of China’s assertion that she, and only she, will make such strategic decisions and will do so outside of the intense (and often economically unwarranted) pressure of the more protectionist US law-makers out there. Bowing to what many within China view as a currently beleaguered and dramatically tarnished corrupt-capitalist system, as opposed to China’s carefully controlled capitalist-ish-state, is not an option for the People’s Party. It did always say that it would do what was necessary at a time that it considered correct, so far there has been no deviation from this stated course.
The problem is that there are those in the US that really do believe all their woes stem from China’s cheap-manufacturing sector. How silly the media can be, but even worse is how utterly gullible a collection of people can be with minimal influence and exertion of nationalistic stereo-typical grievances – a mere five minutes of research on the subject by those very individuals seemingly against anything Chinese, would elicit an understanding of how intertwined the two economies are and just how exactly the US consumer has been able to purchase all those really necessary extra TVs-for-their-cars’-back-seats, not to mention the home-barbeques large-enough to cook for the entire USA football squad. The move by China is the first positioning of the chess-pieces for the longer-term plan.
China approaches policy with an exceptionally long-term (election-worry free) outlook. In fact, spend any time talking with those involved in the financial markets across Hong Kong and they will display a belief that developed capitalist nations execute policy based on short-term crowd-pleasing necessity, whilst those without the need to pander to lobby-groups and ensure a maximum number of votes, think more altruistically. Now, discussing whether a control-state-economy is really acting in the best interests of its people at all times takes us to a whole other conversation, but the crux of the issue is that China’s authorities are doing what they have planned all-along – crucially, the currency move will not only placate and quieten some of the more educated masses out there but begin the training of China’s own banks with the skills required to manage a truly floating currency – i.e. teaching the banks how to trade FX and deal with the consequences of an introduction of a number of new policy levers, not least interest rates. So the whole exercise is a training issue. One which the world needs more than many understand. Without a stable China over the next few difficult years, the rest of the developed world will have a much tougher time trying to rebalance their grotesquely inflated trade deficits.
Dead and loving it...
More impressive than the news this week of one million Chinese millionaires now spending merrily through a supposed equal-income communist system ,was that the prize for the largest generation of wealth (in one year) must be awarded to someone that had in fact been dead the entire time – that’s right, the white-gloved genius of pop music - and more controversial than those caught siphoning off oil from the US Gulf Coast to sell on as “diluted-Gasoline” – Michael Jackson himself. Sales of his albums and surrounding paraphernalia generated almost a $1bn in profit since his sad demise. Now that is what you call making money in your (rather permanent) sleep. Second highest revenue-generating “dead” musician? Many still eagerly await his messianic return. Elvis of course. He would have definitely known where Obama can munch on the best burgers to his heart-exploding content!
Mobile: +971 502 899 395 (UK Mobile: +44 7770 694 494)
There are of course serious events taking place this week where world leaders gather to discuss the still stubbornly bad economy. They desperately seek a resolution that will ensure the viability of the current banking system and permit trust in sovereign debt for some years to come. The “Golden Rule” here? Well, he who has the gold - makes the rules. Watch for a number of well-sounding-bites-of-wisdom from the opposing US and Chinese delegations as the G8 followed by the G20 (wouldn’t want the others feeling left out now would we?) sit in Canada – my personal favourite this week “The economy is like water. Water does not boil at 99 degrees, but one extra centigrade can make a lot of difference” – classic stuff from China’s Confucius pedigree . Who says economics is not mired in science huh?
Our favourite scene of the geopolitical week? Easy come on! What better photo-op than Obama munching on a burger with Medvedev whilst sharing a portion of fries at “Ruth’s Hell Burger”? I’m sure there are many ways to break-the-ice between two leaders of quite-large nuclear arsenals (still pointed at one another) but here’s hoping Obama’s method doesn’t backfire with a nasty case of meat-poisoning. Lucky for Obama that they weren’t ordering a burger in Dubai from the always reliable waiting-staff, or they may have ended up with a resplendent specimen adorned with all the necessary trimmings but missing one vital ingredient – the patty itself! Yep, it recently did happen in one of Dubai’s swankier hotels, seriously. Obama’s critics will no doubt point to a soft-approach, fretting about concessions being made and the US appearing “weak” but others will agree that Obama’s personality is continuing to show the US is maturing as a super-power and recognising the importance of avoiding past mistakes that have proven costly and destructive. An open-minded-manner in approaching geopolitics must be a better way of doing things.
Even more impressive than the records broken at Wimbledon - with the longest match in history having been battled out over an incredible 70-68 games in the final set over a muscle-aching 12 hours - was the fact that not a single drop of rain managed to find its way onto any of the courts as the sun-shone down on a wonderfully dry collection of strawberry munching spectators. Some of the fun will have been dented by the UK’s announcement of a hike in VAT by 2.5% to 20% - less cream on top of those strawberries next year. Another surprise for England was of course their football team’s ability (term used loosely) to finally put some effort behind their professed “love-for-the-game” and string together one-or-two passes to bring about a goal. France’s failure to proceed to the knock-out stages was well deserved (karma can be a cruel mistress – just ask Thierry Henry’s hand) and the Bafana-Bafana brigade were able to achieve little more than an outpouring of supporter empathy by having the ignominious honour of being the first host nation to fail to make it to the second round. The fun in the world cup is really just getting going, and true political rivalries will now come into play with matches such as England vs Germany bringing out the worst in the British (and German to be honest) press. Some colourful headlines surely being read right now. Will Cameron and Merkel even shake hands at the end of the G20 or will they simply swap shirts? – ewwww, come to think of it, please just shake hands Angela.
China’s Move...
Currency markets have not exactly continued to jump up-and-down-with-joy after what seemed like an earth-shattering decision to allow a strengthening of the Renminbi. Initial euphoria at the top-of-the-week swiftly turned as dry as an over-cooked Chinese stir-fry – within 48 hours to be precise. As with most China official department announcements, the importance of last week’s significant financial alteration is only perceived by listening to what was not said. No clear direction or level was mentioned, and only an ambiguous desire to maintain “stability” of the strengthening economy’s path-to-success and possible transformation to a consumer society touted.
The move was of course timed to coincide with the aforementioned G20, but those more savvy investors and China-watchers out-there had known about the decision for some weeks. The real effect was a reinforcement of China’s assertion that she, and only she, will make such strategic decisions and will do so outside of the intense (and often economically unwarranted) pressure of the more protectionist US law-makers out there. Bowing to what many within China view as a currently beleaguered and dramatically tarnished corrupt-capitalist system, as opposed to China’s carefully controlled capitalist-ish-state, is not an option for the People’s Party. It did always say that it would do what was necessary at a time that it considered correct, so far there has been no deviation from this stated course.
The problem is that there are those in the US that really do believe all their woes stem from China’s cheap-manufacturing sector. How silly the media can be, but even worse is how utterly gullible a collection of people can be with minimal influence and exertion of nationalistic stereo-typical grievances – a mere five minutes of research on the subject by those very individuals seemingly against anything Chinese, would elicit an understanding of how intertwined the two economies are and just how exactly the US consumer has been able to purchase all those really necessary extra TVs-for-their-cars’-back-seats, not to mention the home-barbeques large-enough to cook for the entire USA football squad. The move by China is the first positioning of the chess-pieces for the longer-term plan.
China approaches policy with an exceptionally long-term (election-worry free) outlook. In fact, spend any time talking with those involved in the financial markets across Hong Kong and they will display a belief that developed capitalist nations execute policy based on short-term crowd-pleasing necessity, whilst those without the need to pander to lobby-groups and ensure a maximum number of votes, think more altruistically. Now, discussing whether a control-state-economy is really acting in the best interests of its people at all times takes us to a whole other conversation, but the crux of the issue is that China’s authorities are doing what they have planned all-along – crucially, the currency move will not only placate and quieten some of the more educated masses out there but begin the training of China’s own banks with the skills required to manage a truly floating currency – i.e. teaching the banks how to trade FX and deal with the consequences of an introduction of a number of new policy levers, not least interest rates. So the whole exercise is a training issue. One which the world needs more than many understand. Without a stable China over the next few difficult years, the rest of the developed world will have a much tougher time trying to rebalance their grotesquely inflated trade deficits.
Dead and loving it...
More impressive than the news this week of one million Chinese millionaires now spending merrily through a supposed equal-income communist system ,was that the prize for the largest generation of wealth (in one year) must be awarded to someone that had in fact been dead the entire time – that’s right, the white-gloved genius of pop music - and more controversial than those caught siphoning off oil from the US Gulf Coast to sell on as “diluted-Gasoline” – Michael Jackson himself. Sales of his albums and surrounding paraphernalia generated almost a $1bn in profit since his sad demise. Now that is what you call making money in your (rather permanent) sleep. Second highest revenue-generating “dead” musician? Many still eagerly await his messianic return. Elvis of course. He would have definitely known where Obama can munch on the best burgers to his heart-exploding content!
Thursday, 17 June 2010
Fine lines
** Fine lines ** Thursday 17th June
Mobile: +971 502 899 395 (UK Mobile: +44 7770 694 494)
After what started as a rather boring competition, the world cup’s football extravaganza - please DO NOT call it “soccer” all you US-educated-Superbowl-loving fans - has suddenly turned into a semblance of the quality normally demanded of such a talented (and well-paid) collection of players. The steady build-up to the faster-paced tempo and more fulfilling match-watching has been similar to recent market activity around the globe. We had a disastrous opening gambit to June, but just as the investor-base realised Europe was not going to disappear in an eruption of fiscal mismanagement even more spectacular than the fireworks display that felled Pompeii a few thousand years ago (AD 79 - fact), valuations have once again looked attractive to those fortunate enough to have sold earlier in the year (April would have been a good time for that) and are now able to re-enter the market with vigour ahead of the understandable desire to switch those annoying screens off (any excuse) and head out to the summer beaches. One positive aspect of all Europe’s woes – the yachts and villas available for rent in some of the more desirable Mediterranean locations are thankfully affordable – is there a whiff of conspiratorial short-selling pressure on Spanish sovereign debt just as Marbella’s normally exorbitant five-star resorts gear up for the July-onslaught? You smart hedge-funders you – your secret is safe with me.
Axe-ing the Evil
What is it with the Iranian leadership and their ability to irritate the entire world? They are not even playing in the world cup and are still the most talked about member of the axis of evil – even those plucky-in-defence North Koreans elicited a wry smile a few days ago, from both ardent opponents to the “axis” and members of the “anti-US-hegemony” fan-base. There is very little to laugh about the latest round of economic sanctions imposed upon Iran though, bringing further undue hardships on her people, in addition to a recent re-flaring of the aggressive rhetoric from both sides. We all know Obama wants a diplomatic solution, but I think we also all know that Obama will end-up using the mightiest military force ever known to man – whether directly or indirectly (more on that below) – to ensure a end to the threatening situation that the American people, and its regional allies, will be content with.
Iran even has a role to play in the current debate enraging the oil-rich Gulf – no, not Persian-Gulf but the US Gulf-Coast – quickly turning from a picturesque to “take-a-picture-of-me-swimming-in-this-viscous-black-gold” collection of beaches, as thousands and thousands of barrels of oil continue to spew from the depths of its waters. Despite the best efforts of the firm seemingly blamed for the entire disaster, The Petroleum Company For The Former Empire of The Nations Of Great Britain – no wait, sorry, that’s not the correct name, that must have been overheard when Fox News was accidentally switched on in the background, we do of course mean the Anglo-Persian Oil Exploration Firm That Made Millions For The UK – no sorry, wrong one again, we are talking of the re-branded BP here aren’t we? Yes, just plain and simple BP, that’s the British company we wanted. Darn, mistaken once more, there is no British in BP. So it’s just BP. Whatever it’s called, watching the BP Chairman being grilled by congress is another expression of what has seemingly become a US national-pastime: venting emotional anger on prime-time TV and almost brining to tears the very captains-of-industry purposefully created by the most capitalist of capitalist systems in the world.
Crossing the line...
Hmm, all this fuss about whether or not Obama has paid enough attention to the issue - undoubtedly an eco-disaster - and is doing enough to “punish” the evil BP, has detracted from a glaringly obvious and frustratingly misdirected wonder of media creativity – that the original miscreant of the accident that led to the spill was indeed the US owned, managed and staffed Trans-Ocean. Wait, it gets better. Who was BP working for and under contract to when operating what had only months before been heralded as a wonderful new deep-drilling technology? Yep, you guessed it, another immensely US-centric firm and in fact the original soccer-watching-Superbowl-loving-gas-guzzling-provider, Halliburton itself! The whole thing smacks of foul-oil-tasting-irony.
If the US was not so hell-bent on drilling its very lands in the most dangerous circumstances known to man, driven by an ever-greedy and desperate desire to devour every drip of oil possible to ensure a continuation of their glutinous way of life, this entire saga would not have transpired in the first place. Sorry, but you cannot push people to the very limits of human technology for your own pronounced desires only to fully blame and loudly berate when something goes wrong – especially when the risks were clearly understood and sanctioned by the highest authorities in the land at the time. If Obama’s White House is really trying to hurt his preceding administration’s corporate affiliate, he should lay-off the BP bashing (significantly now also owned by US investors by the way) and turn some of his ire closer to home.
Reading in-between the lines
What also caught my eye this week was the little distributed story of Saudi Arabia apparently acquiescing to Israel’s request to fly-through a narrow corridor to allow an attack on Iran’s (suspected) nuclear reactors. This is typical of the Middle East. Rather than focus on pressuring Iran themselves through a number theoretical regional capabilities and pressure points (access to banking facilities, assistance with oil refining etc.), the flammable Pandora’s box has been dusted-off and placed in front of the eager-to-open hands of the Israelis.
Allow us to investigate: the Middle East, controlling almost 3/5 of the world’s known oil supplies, is unable to deal with one of its own trouble-making neighbours. What does it do instead? Does it request assistance from one of the more neutrally inclined powers to facilitate the removal of such threat? If you thought “yes” for even a moment then, my Arabian-watching friends, you clearly have not read enough about Middle Eastern history and the seemingly self-destructive desire to consistently strike the wrong strategic decision at the absolute crucial moment. The single most problematic choice is opted for – an implicit agreement to turn-a-blind-eye (presumably busy cheering Germany in the World Cup) as the, US-supplied, Israeli air force (used to be US-trained, now they train the US – who trains the Saudi’s?) streak through a narrow flight path provided at the top of the Saudi Kingdom’s airspace to provide a direct enough bomb-run for a debilitating blow to Tehran’s nuclear programme. That’s the plan at least.
The reality is no doubt far more complicated and the conclusion and ripple effects a further several-hundred times over. US-trained Israeli warplanes screeching across the Gulf skies, on their sight-seeing trip to Iran that should end with a bang, will naturally irritate the famed Arab-street. Surely the leadership across the region anticipates this. Maybe that’s why the “rumours” that made up the story were not more widely distributed and made a swift exit from the journalistic editorial commentary.
So as we enter the weekend, a few things to contemplate on and discuss amongst yourselves. Surely important questions will be raised across many a dinner-table. Or then again, maybe most will simply hold aloft a few beers as they cheer their favourite football team and ask deeply insightful questions that strike hard at the very heart of those vital life-changing issues – “is the ref blind or what?!”
Enjoy...
Hani Kobrossi
Mobile: +971 502 899 395 (UK Mobile: +44 7770 694 494)
After what started as a rather boring competition, the world cup’s football extravaganza - please DO NOT call it “soccer” all you US-educated-Superbowl-loving fans - has suddenly turned into a semblance of the quality normally demanded of such a talented (and well-paid) collection of players. The steady build-up to the faster-paced tempo and more fulfilling match-watching has been similar to recent market activity around the globe. We had a disastrous opening gambit to June, but just as the investor-base realised Europe was not going to disappear in an eruption of fiscal mismanagement even more spectacular than the fireworks display that felled Pompeii a few thousand years ago (AD 79 - fact), valuations have once again looked attractive to those fortunate enough to have sold earlier in the year (April would have been a good time for that) and are now able to re-enter the market with vigour ahead of the understandable desire to switch those annoying screens off (any excuse) and head out to the summer beaches. One positive aspect of all Europe’s woes – the yachts and villas available for rent in some of the more desirable Mediterranean locations are thankfully affordable – is there a whiff of conspiratorial short-selling pressure on Spanish sovereign debt just as Marbella’s normally exorbitant five-star resorts gear up for the July-onslaught? You smart hedge-funders you – your secret is safe with me.
Axe-ing the Evil
What is it with the Iranian leadership and their ability to irritate the entire world? They are not even playing in the world cup and are still the most talked about member of the axis of evil – even those plucky-in-defence North Koreans elicited a wry smile a few days ago, from both ardent opponents to the “axis” and members of the “anti-US-hegemony” fan-base. There is very little to laugh about the latest round of economic sanctions imposed upon Iran though, bringing further undue hardships on her people, in addition to a recent re-flaring of the aggressive rhetoric from both sides. We all know Obama wants a diplomatic solution, but I think we also all know that Obama will end-up using the mightiest military force ever known to man – whether directly or indirectly (more on that below) – to ensure a end to the threatening situation that the American people, and its regional allies, will be content with.
Iran even has a role to play in the current debate enraging the oil-rich Gulf – no, not Persian-Gulf but the US Gulf-Coast – quickly turning from a picturesque to “take-a-picture-of-me-swimming-in-this-viscous-black-gold” collection of beaches, as thousands and thousands of barrels of oil continue to spew from the depths of its waters. Despite the best efforts of the firm seemingly blamed for the entire disaster, The Petroleum Company For The Former Empire of The Nations Of Great Britain – no wait, sorry, that’s not the correct name, that must have been overheard when Fox News was accidentally switched on in the background, we do of course mean the Anglo-Persian Oil Exploration Firm That Made Millions For The UK – no sorry, wrong one again, we are talking of the re-branded BP here aren’t we? Yes, just plain and simple BP, that’s the British company we wanted. Darn, mistaken once more, there is no British in BP. So it’s just BP. Whatever it’s called, watching the BP Chairman being grilled by congress is another expression of what has seemingly become a US national-pastime: venting emotional anger on prime-time TV and almost brining to tears the very captains-of-industry purposefully created by the most capitalist of capitalist systems in the world.
Crossing the line...
Hmm, all this fuss about whether or not Obama has paid enough attention to the issue - undoubtedly an eco-disaster - and is doing enough to “punish” the evil BP, has detracted from a glaringly obvious and frustratingly misdirected wonder of media creativity – that the original miscreant of the accident that led to the spill was indeed the US owned, managed and staffed Trans-Ocean. Wait, it gets better. Who was BP working for and under contract to when operating what had only months before been heralded as a wonderful new deep-drilling technology? Yep, you guessed it, another immensely US-centric firm and in fact the original soccer-watching-Superbowl-loving-gas-guzzling-provider, Halliburton itself! The whole thing smacks of foul-oil-tasting-irony.
If the US was not so hell-bent on drilling its very lands in the most dangerous circumstances known to man, driven by an ever-greedy and desperate desire to devour every drip of oil possible to ensure a continuation of their glutinous way of life, this entire saga would not have transpired in the first place. Sorry, but you cannot push people to the very limits of human technology for your own pronounced desires only to fully blame and loudly berate when something goes wrong – especially when the risks were clearly understood and sanctioned by the highest authorities in the land at the time. If Obama’s White House is really trying to hurt his preceding administration’s corporate affiliate, he should lay-off the BP bashing (significantly now also owned by US investors by the way) and turn some of his ire closer to home.
Reading in-between the lines
What also caught my eye this week was the little distributed story of Saudi Arabia apparently acquiescing to Israel’s request to fly-through a narrow corridor to allow an attack on Iran’s (suspected) nuclear reactors. This is typical of the Middle East. Rather than focus on pressuring Iran themselves through a number theoretical regional capabilities and pressure points (access to banking facilities, assistance with oil refining etc.), the flammable Pandora’s box has been dusted-off and placed in front of the eager-to-open hands of the Israelis.
Allow us to investigate: the Middle East, controlling almost 3/5 of the world’s known oil supplies, is unable to deal with one of its own trouble-making neighbours. What does it do instead? Does it request assistance from one of the more neutrally inclined powers to facilitate the removal of such threat? If you thought “yes” for even a moment then, my Arabian-watching friends, you clearly have not read enough about Middle Eastern history and the seemingly self-destructive desire to consistently strike the wrong strategic decision at the absolute crucial moment. The single most problematic choice is opted for – an implicit agreement to turn-a-blind-eye (presumably busy cheering Germany in the World Cup) as the, US-supplied, Israeli air force (used to be US-trained, now they train the US – who trains the Saudi’s?) streak through a narrow flight path provided at the top of the Saudi Kingdom’s airspace to provide a direct enough bomb-run for a debilitating blow to Tehran’s nuclear programme. That’s the plan at least.
The reality is no doubt far more complicated and the conclusion and ripple effects a further several-hundred times over. US-trained Israeli warplanes screeching across the Gulf skies, on their sight-seeing trip to Iran that should end with a bang, will naturally irritate the famed Arab-street. Surely the leadership across the region anticipates this. Maybe that’s why the “rumours” that made up the story were not more widely distributed and made a swift exit from the journalistic editorial commentary.
So as we enter the weekend, a few things to contemplate on and discuss amongst yourselves. Surely important questions will be raised across many a dinner-table. Or then again, maybe most will simply hold aloft a few beers as they cheer their favourite football team and ask deeply insightful questions that strike hard at the very heart of those vital life-changing issues – “is the ref blind or what?!”
Enjoy...
Hani Kobrossi
Monday, 14 June 2010
Who’s World-Cup is it anyway?
** Who’s World-Cup is it anyway? ** Monday 14th June
Mobile: +971 502 899 395 (UK Mobile: +44 7770 694 494)
It sometimes takes an immovable object to block an unstoppable force.
My recent gallivanting around the globe was felled by a rather nasty, not-to-mention-excruciatingly-painful (not that I’m looking for any sympathy of course) wound that will suffice in its description as simply making the finding of a comfortable seating position nigh on impossible – come to think of it, just being able to sit would be a good start!
And so it is, that after a near a 4-mth silence, a slicing review of current affairs and cynicism on future development seems ripe for a return. How have you all survived not knowing anything about crucial daily geopolitical matters?..such as the latest Gold/Oil/$£/Global market prices, Abu Dhabi/Dubai melodramas, Berlusconi’s dastardly love-affairs, whether or not the Baltic Dry Index really has any baring whatsoever on global trading levels and when exactly is it again that the Chinese will rule the world?, not to mention healthy and heartening servings of humour-infused observations. No, I’m not talking about the online version of the Sun.co.uk (still free for now, pheww, unlike the move by ‘The Times’), but the satisfaction that originates only from informed-free-and-open discussion of those matters that count.
With all that has happened in the interim of the last piece and today’s wonderful orgy-like-ambience-of-daily-world-cup-matches, one can be excused for skipping over the immense amount of tantalising material out there: UK coalition governments doomed to fail, Greek kebab-busting-debts seemingly capable of dooming the Euro alongside with it, sinking of Korean ships at the hands of the ‘it-wasn’t-me-North-Koreans’, peaceful Thai protesters beaten into submission, violent earthquakes ravaging Latin American lands, 3D TV all of a sudden becoming a must-have all because of some blue characters running around a colourful 3D-World (unfortunately my prediction did not win the best-film Oscar as predicted in the end-of-year piece), US and global markets finally realising that you can fool some of the people all of the time but only buy-all-of-the-people-and-keep-global-markets-rising-with-huge-amounts-of-government-spending-and-ridiculously-low-interest-rates for only, well...oh..about a year.
Yep, March 2009 to March 2010 was good fun guys and gals, but reality can be a real stinker. Performance of global markets since March 2010? Everyone out there will know just how bad it’s been since we last inspected the health of global returns. And how can justice be served for not mentioning anything about the theatre surrounding Apple and the runaway success of the iPad (no, this isn’t being written on one - can’t seem to get the hang of the touch-screen and lack of ‘old-fashioned’ keyboard-feedback) or more entertainingly the saga of the ‘stolen’ iPhone..or the failing iPhone at its new launch – seriously though, why is the world so impressed with two-way video calling when it was available over 5-years ago on any number of Nokia’s?? Incredible branding/marketing/design/stupidity/near-religious-followers, that’s why.
With so much already written in the elapsed time of our last communiqué (that’s what travel will do to you, broadens the vocabulaire), why even bother pointing out the oil-spill of environmental-disaster-proportions that has strained US/UK relations (Obama still the man, but going a little too far in pandering to public outrage against BP when it was in fact an outsourced-to US-owned firm that suffered the tragic accident in the first-place). Indeed, some suspect a coating of aforementioned gulf-coast-oil on the very same football that brought-about the horrendous fumble of an easy-save from the England goalkeeper in the recent world-cup match against the US
Speaking of near-religious followers, the World-Cup is of course amongst us – just in case you had not noticed since you were living in some remote lost-tribal village alongside the Iguacu falls....or a woman. Oooohhhh..that must have incensed quite a few out there. But come on. The truth is there are many of the female variety out there who abruptly transform into die-hard football fans every four years without ever acknowledging the rules of the game, or even brandishing themselves with the very basic knowledge of historic rivalries, individual talents or the offside-rule (the what? Yeah exactly...just please don’t ask me please to explain). Male football fans are quite similar all-around the world. Female fans, despite great appreciation for the efforts made to fit into tightly-hugging football shirts and shorts (especially the eye-catchingly awesome yellow of Brazil, and the mysteriously shapely blue of Argentina) certainly are not all the same.
Currently residing in the Middle East - despite having spent little time here in the last few months - and most recently having travelled to the most feminine-ruled of cities in the world (Beirut for the unfamiliar), an number of telling observations of the female football ‘fan’ have been made. First, there is no such thing as a true Middle-Eastern world-cup fan. Man or woman. This of course arises from the fact that there is very seldom a Middle Eastern football team in the competition (unless you really want to count Algeria – many prefer not to) or the off-occasion where the Saudis were able to beat (read: bribe) enough teams within their qualifying group to make it through. The fact is Middle Eastern football teams just aren’t very good. Why do you think Qatar want to host the 2022 World Cup so bad? Not to have the honour of staging the competition but just to be able to finally play in the sacred thing through the automatic slot they receive!
So it goes that each individual, from the young to the old, male and female, pledge allegiance to their favoured-adopted side long before the first tackle has been lunged (going for the ball of course) or Vuvuzela has been annoyingly blown for hours and hours and hours (and hours) on end – did we mention how annoying the Vuvuzela’s ‘sound’ is? The favourites around this part of the world: Germany and Brazil (Italy and Argentina equal third). Now, Brazil being a favourite is understandable and acceptable. Brazil are incredible. They have won more world-cups than any other nation. They play more attractive, innovative and skilfully-impressive football than any other nation on earth, and they have those wonderfully attired Brazilian supporters that camera men love to focus on at every opportunity (it’s the yellow again). It is easy to understand why the likes of UAE nationals, Qataris, Kuwaitis and even those in Yemen with TVs (and the expensive Al Jazeera world-cup package) are prone to cheer for such a team filled with pedigree and talent.
Even supporting Italy and Argentina is equally digestible. Both play exquisite football and have a history of winning (noticing a trend amongst the Middle Eastern choices by any chance? Yep – glory hunters). Both have that extra ummph in their game and their national supporters and icons, stylish and aspiring, are worthy of note (even Berlusconi). BUT Gerrrrrmany....Germany?? Zeee Germans?? Why on earth would any sane individual who was not actual born in Germany, married to a German, employed by a German firm and being forced to watch football in his German boss’s Miele-designed kitchen, want to knowingly and willingly chant, cheer and sing for so dull a team (please note, Sunday’s performance against Australia did not serve to support this already though-out piece...not helpful).
Apart from having won the competition a frustratingly large number of times, always making it to either the semis or even the final, there is no justification as a football-fan-outsider to shout for the Germans. They always, always play the most insipid brand of football out there (again...last night...not helping..oops), always leave you wishing you had not watched the match you just did watch, and apart from some damn good draft beer have very little to offer in way of cultural entertainment – no, the female supporters clad in the national kit do not look that good. Middle Eastern supporters have a choice of any team they would like to pledge allegiance to, and in a rare occasion indeed, it is the competition of a sport where the US is not the most powerful force by any means – so the problem of a knee-jerk reaction to simply vie for whatever team is playing against the ‘great devil’ (even as they munch on their Big Mac after finishing off the last episode of Lost and having just driven home in their Escalade) is out of the way.
So what must the reason be? It can only be the glory-hunter in the Middle Eastern supporter that would cause one to reach so low into the attractive-talent-bag of international football (ask a more fundamentalist-inclined Iranian though and you might get a different, WW2 themed-answer – not nice) The desire to feel a part of the competition for as long as possible may also have something to do with it. You can understand why a young UAE national would like to remain a part of the festivities when Claus is sat beside him in class grinning and basking in the glory of another win on penalties against England (please NOT again) long after Algeria have been kicked out at the group stage - a happy-desert-camper he will not be,
This is certainly expressed in Lebanon’s scintillating Beirut. Strangely for a people and country that normally revels in being compared to either the Italian or French (not to mention having been a French-ruled mandate for over a quarter of a century), Germany is again the team of choice if the prolific display of horizontally striped black, red and yellow flags is anything to go by.
The female supporters there look forward to the endless displays of football almost as much as the ‘males’ (in quotation marks for a reason) – where else can they, in skimpy-attire attributed to a tight-fitting football shirt (‘it shrunk when the maid washed it’), cavort and taunt a captive audience with a guaranteed male dominant percentage for weeks on end, edging closer and closer during the matches to their own idea of a stunning goal?
To ensure success, a team with a historically proven ability to remain in the competition until the later stages is essential. It actually suits both the men and the women, and an unwritten understanding of unflappable support for Germany engulfs once every four years. A few brave souls will give-in to sense and bravely hoist Argentinean or Brazilian flags, but if you are single and looking to have the biggest football-barbeque on the block you already know which powerful European-industrial-nation you are supporting.
So the stage has been set. The adopted teams spoken for and some already victoriously supported. Whichever team you are following, and for whatever reason - yes, you ‘girl-fans’ out there, we’re onto you but we love having (some of) you around regardless, the next few weeks will elicit multiple expressions of emotion, yells of joy and screams of angst - please not England again in penalties.
Only one thing is for sure, you will all be infinitely-more-comfortably-seated on your sofas than myself.
Enjoy.
Hani Kobrossi
Mobile: +971 502 899 395 (UK Mobile: +44 7770 694 494)
It sometimes takes an immovable object to block an unstoppable force.
My recent gallivanting around the globe was felled by a rather nasty, not-to-mention-excruciatingly-painful (not that I’m looking for any sympathy of course) wound that will suffice in its description as simply making the finding of a comfortable seating position nigh on impossible – come to think of it, just being able to sit would be a good start!
And so it is, that after a near a 4-mth silence, a slicing review of current affairs and cynicism on future development seems ripe for a return. How have you all survived not knowing anything about crucial daily geopolitical matters?..such as the latest Gold/Oil/$£/Global market prices, Abu Dhabi/Dubai melodramas, Berlusconi’s dastardly love-affairs, whether or not the Baltic Dry Index really has any baring whatsoever on global trading levels and when exactly is it again that the Chinese will rule the world?, not to mention healthy and heartening servings of humour-infused observations. No, I’m not talking about the online version of the Sun.co.uk (still free for now, pheww, unlike the move by ‘The Times’), but the satisfaction that originates only from informed-free-and-open discussion of those matters that count.
With all that has happened in the interim of the last piece and today’s wonderful orgy-like-ambience-of-daily-world-cup-matches, one can be excused for skipping over the immense amount of tantalising material out there: UK coalition governments doomed to fail, Greek kebab-busting-debts seemingly capable of dooming the Euro alongside with it, sinking of Korean ships at the hands of the ‘it-wasn’t-me-North-Koreans’, peaceful Thai protesters beaten into submission, violent earthquakes ravaging Latin American lands, 3D TV all of a sudden becoming a must-have all because of some blue characters running around a colourful 3D-World (unfortunately my prediction did not win the best-film Oscar as predicted in the end-of-year piece), US and global markets finally realising that you can fool some of the people all of the time but only buy-all-of-the-people-and-keep-global-markets-rising-with-huge-amounts-of-government-spending-and-ridiculously-low-interest-rates for only, well...oh..about a year.
Yep, March 2009 to March 2010 was good fun guys and gals, but reality can be a real stinker. Performance of global markets since March 2010? Everyone out there will know just how bad it’s been since we last inspected the health of global returns. And how can justice be served for not mentioning anything about the theatre surrounding Apple and the runaway success of the iPad (no, this isn’t being written on one - can’t seem to get the hang of the touch-screen and lack of ‘old-fashioned’ keyboard-feedback) or more entertainingly the saga of the ‘stolen’ iPhone..or the failing iPhone at its new launch – seriously though, why is the world so impressed with two-way video calling when it was available over 5-years ago on any number of Nokia’s?? Incredible branding/marketing/design/stupidity/near-religious-followers, that’s why.
With so much already written in the elapsed time of our last communiqué (that’s what travel will do to you, broadens the vocabulaire), why even bother pointing out the oil-spill of environmental-disaster-proportions that has strained US/UK relations (Obama still the man, but going a little too far in pandering to public outrage against BP when it was in fact an outsourced-to US-owned firm that suffered the tragic accident in the first-place). Indeed, some suspect a coating of aforementioned gulf-coast-oil on the very same football that brought-about the horrendous fumble of an easy-save from the England goalkeeper in the recent world-cup match against the US
Speaking of near-religious followers, the World-Cup is of course amongst us – just in case you had not noticed since you were living in some remote lost-tribal village alongside the Iguacu falls....or a woman. Oooohhhh..that must have incensed quite a few out there. But come on. The truth is there are many of the female variety out there who abruptly transform into die-hard football fans every four years without ever acknowledging the rules of the game, or even brandishing themselves with the very basic knowledge of historic rivalries, individual talents or the offside-rule (the what? Yeah exactly...just please don’t ask me please to explain). Male football fans are quite similar all-around the world. Female fans, despite great appreciation for the efforts made to fit into tightly-hugging football shirts and shorts (especially the eye-catchingly awesome yellow of Brazil, and the mysteriously shapely blue of Argentina) certainly are not all the same.
Currently residing in the Middle East - despite having spent little time here in the last few months - and most recently having travelled to the most feminine-ruled of cities in the world (Beirut for the unfamiliar), an number of telling observations of the female football ‘fan’ have been made. First, there is no such thing as a true Middle-Eastern world-cup fan. Man or woman. This of course arises from the fact that there is very seldom a Middle Eastern football team in the competition (unless you really want to count Algeria – many prefer not to) or the off-occasion where the Saudis were able to beat (read: bribe) enough teams within their qualifying group to make it through. The fact is Middle Eastern football teams just aren’t very good. Why do you think Qatar want to host the 2022 World Cup so bad? Not to have the honour of staging the competition but just to be able to finally play in the sacred thing through the automatic slot they receive!
So it goes that each individual, from the young to the old, male and female, pledge allegiance to their favoured-adopted side long before the first tackle has been lunged (going for the ball of course) or Vuvuzela has been annoyingly blown for hours and hours and hours (and hours) on end – did we mention how annoying the Vuvuzela’s ‘sound’ is? The favourites around this part of the world: Germany and Brazil (Italy and Argentina equal third). Now, Brazil being a favourite is understandable and acceptable. Brazil are incredible. They have won more world-cups than any other nation. They play more attractive, innovative and skilfully-impressive football than any other nation on earth, and they have those wonderfully attired Brazilian supporters that camera men love to focus on at every opportunity (it’s the yellow again). It is easy to understand why the likes of UAE nationals, Qataris, Kuwaitis and even those in Yemen with TVs (and the expensive Al Jazeera world-cup package) are prone to cheer for such a team filled with pedigree and talent.
Even supporting Italy and Argentina is equally digestible. Both play exquisite football and have a history of winning (noticing a trend amongst the Middle Eastern choices by any chance? Yep – glory hunters). Both have that extra ummph in their game and their national supporters and icons, stylish and aspiring, are worthy of note (even Berlusconi). BUT Gerrrrrmany....Germany?? Zeee Germans?? Why on earth would any sane individual who was not actual born in Germany, married to a German, employed by a German firm and being forced to watch football in his German boss’s Miele-designed kitchen, want to knowingly and willingly chant, cheer and sing for so dull a team (please note, Sunday’s performance against Australia did not serve to support this already though-out piece...not helpful).
Apart from having won the competition a frustratingly large number of times, always making it to either the semis or even the final, there is no justification as a football-fan-outsider to shout for the Germans. They always, always play the most insipid brand of football out there (again...last night...not helping..oops), always leave you wishing you had not watched the match you just did watch, and apart from some damn good draft beer have very little to offer in way of cultural entertainment – no, the female supporters clad in the national kit do not look that good. Middle Eastern supporters have a choice of any team they would like to pledge allegiance to, and in a rare occasion indeed, it is the competition of a sport where the US is not the most powerful force by any means – so the problem of a knee-jerk reaction to simply vie for whatever team is playing against the ‘great devil’ (even as they munch on their Big Mac after finishing off the last episode of Lost and having just driven home in their Escalade) is out of the way.
So what must the reason be? It can only be the glory-hunter in the Middle Eastern supporter that would cause one to reach so low into the attractive-talent-bag of international football (ask a more fundamentalist-inclined Iranian though and you might get a different, WW2 themed-answer – not nice) The desire to feel a part of the competition for as long as possible may also have something to do with it. You can understand why a young UAE national would like to remain a part of the festivities when Claus is sat beside him in class grinning and basking in the glory of another win on penalties against England (please NOT again) long after Algeria have been kicked out at the group stage - a happy-desert-camper he will not be,
This is certainly expressed in Lebanon’s scintillating Beirut. Strangely for a people and country that normally revels in being compared to either the Italian or French (not to mention having been a French-ruled mandate for over a quarter of a century), Germany is again the team of choice if the prolific display of horizontally striped black, red and yellow flags is anything to go by.
The female supporters there look forward to the endless displays of football almost as much as the ‘males’ (in quotation marks for a reason) – where else can they, in skimpy-attire attributed to a tight-fitting football shirt (‘it shrunk when the maid washed it’), cavort and taunt a captive audience with a guaranteed male dominant percentage for weeks on end, edging closer and closer during the matches to their own idea of a stunning goal?
To ensure success, a team with a historically proven ability to remain in the competition until the later stages is essential. It actually suits both the men and the women, and an unwritten understanding of unflappable support for Germany engulfs once every four years. A few brave souls will give-in to sense and bravely hoist Argentinean or Brazilian flags, but if you are single and looking to have the biggest football-barbeque on the block you already know which powerful European-industrial-nation you are supporting.
So the stage has been set. The adopted teams spoken for and some already victoriously supported. Whichever team you are following, and for whatever reason - yes, you ‘girl-fans’ out there, we’re onto you but we love having (some of) you around regardless, the next few weeks will elicit multiple expressions of emotion, yells of joy and screams of angst - please not England again in penalties.
Only one thing is for sure, you will all be infinitely-more-comfortably-seated on your sofas than myself.
Enjoy.
Hani Kobrossi
Monday, 15 February 2010
Carnivale Tears
As the world’s romantics (and suckers for commercialised holidays) return to their desks content their feelings have been adequately expressed and requited for another year, a busy week awaits ahead: Afghanistan is embroiled in yet another “surge” by coalition forces as they run amok the mountains of a land that refuses to give in to any intruding force, Iran declares itself a veritable “nuclear force” alongside increased calls for pre-emptive strikes from either US or Israeli forces (same thing no?), Hilary Clinton tours some of the world’s largest oil (Saudi) and gas (Qatar) producers in the Gulf region presumably ensuring undisturbed supplies of their most precious exports in events related to the preceding sentence and economic figures suggest Japan’s economy is not quite ready to relinquish its position as the world’s second largest economy to China just yet (despite Toyota’s woes), at the same time as our ever-market-savvy friends here in Dubai briefly stun investors with rumours of a 7yr haircut-debt-deal – since denied but doing nothing to assuage tired/cynical/fed-up investors devoid of patience.
With the Chinese New Year taking us into the Year of the Tiger, most major markets across Asia are shut for the extended celebrations, leaving Japan to fall moderately (Nikkei -0.78%) and little to steer investors on this Monday morning through the usual barrage of upcoming economic indicators: including (from the US) Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and much-focused on inflation figures via PPI (+0.8% cons) on Thursday, as well as the much-anticipated details of a European (basically German) deal to “facilitate” Greece’s problems – maybe Greece could rein in some of the huge spending they seem to love on advertising their bountiful tourist attractions across almost every major new network every fifteen minutes – seems a strange juxtaposition sandwiched between commentaries on sovereign meltdowns and irresponsible public spending – a lesson Dubai never learnt when deciding to “open” a (since closed) record-breaking-tower in the midst of its own debt issues. It’s quite tough out there for any sovereign spending huge amounts of money whilst simultaneously running out of cash and in the unlucky position of possessing neither a globally used currency nor a globally feared military – well played Uncle Sam.
What about moves in commodities given heightened anxiety across the Gulf region? History would dictate that a short-term spike in the price of oil (currently trading slightly lower today in fact just below $74/brl) will occur the moment aggressive rhetoric inevitably turns into action leading to pain and disgust across motorists at fuel pumps from Berlin through London to Texas (hybrids still not too high on the agenda for the nature-lovers there - a Prius just doesn’t have enough room for all those essential rifles). Oil has in fact hovered around $75/brl since falling at the end of Jan, almost sitting around waiting for something interesting (dangerous also) to happen, or already fully-pricing in any supply disruptions. In conjunction with a renewed desire to hold US$s (Cable 1.56, Euro/US$ 1.36) and a slight return of risk-aversion, a semblance to markets this time last year currently exists. Optimists out there will welcome this as long as a strong period of rising performance prevails somewhere around March…and if not…well..that’s the fun of markets. European bourses are putting in a good performance at the start of the week, the FTSE, DAX and CAC40 all rising more than 70bps as pressure relieves amongst investors preoccupied by Greek, Spanish and Portuguese jitters. US futures are pointing to a less than inspiring open – DJIA -21pts, S&P -2.2pts.
With the geo-political scene immersed in what is looking like the beginning-of-the-end-game vis-à-vis the Iranian nuclear issue (Hillary’s trip as documented above a slight give-away) the Carnivale celebrating Brazilians have been more distracted by the furore created over the choice of a 7-yr old girl to lead the traditional parade in Rio de Janeiro. Disputes over whether a sexually-tinged role should be represented by such a young-girl dominated media there for days on end and spilled over into debates on even Fox News, where some dim-witted conservative said “nothing like this would ever happen in the US!” Really?? What about the 5yr-old dolled-up “junior beauty queens” you endlessly parade around middle-America huh? Anyway, at the crucial moment of her role it seems she broke down in tears when overcome by the pressure of leading the parade. The reason for her succumbing to the intense scrutiny at that precise moment in time a mystery to her father and many that knew her as they were confident in her ability to handle the situation. Commentators were equally saddened but then focused on the crowds filled with celebrities that had attended the festivities and spotted Madonna sitting in the stands – that poor 7-yr old girl must have thought she had come to save her and adopt her to a better home in the US and cried out of fear!
Best Rgds,
Hani
With the Chinese New Year taking us into the Year of the Tiger, most major markets across Asia are shut for the extended celebrations, leaving Japan to fall moderately (Nikkei -0.78%) and little to steer investors on this Monday morning through the usual barrage of upcoming economic indicators: including (from the US) Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and much-focused on inflation figures via PPI (+0.8% cons) on Thursday, as well as the much-anticipated details of a European (basically German) deal to “facilitate” Greece’s problems – maybe Greece could rein in some of the huge spending they seem to love on advertising their bountiful tourist attractions across almost every major new network every fifteen minutes – seems a strange juxtaposition sandwiched between commentaries on sovereign meltdowns and irresponsible public spending – a lesson Dubai never learnt when deciding to “open” a (since closed) record-breaking-tower in the midst of its own debt issues. It’s quite tough out there for any sovereign spending huge amounts of money whilst simultaneously running out of cash and in the unlucky position of possessing neither a globally used currency nor a globally feared military – well played Uncle Sam.
What about moves in commodities given heightened anxiety across the Gulf region? History would dictate that a short-term spike in the price of oil (currently trading slightly lower today in fact just below $74/brl) will occur the moment aggressive rhetoric inevitably turns into action leading to pain and disgust across motorists at fuel pumps from Berlin through London to Texas (hybrids still not too high on the agenda for the nature-lovers there - a Prius just doesn’t have enough room for all those essential rifles). Oil has in fact hovered around $75/brl since falling at the end of Jan, almost sitting around waiting for something interesting (dangerous also) to happen, or already fully-pricing in any supply disruptions. In conjunction with a renewed desire to hold US$s (Cable 1.56, Euro/US$ 1.36) and a slight return of risk-aversion, a semblance to markets this time last year currently exists. Optimists out there will welcome this as long as a strong period of rising performance prevails somewhere around March…and if not…well..that’s the fun of markets. European bourses are putting in a good performance at the start of the week, the FTSE, DAX and CAC40 all rising more than 70bps as pressure relieves amongst investors preoccupied by Greek, Spanish and Portuguese jitters. US futures are pointing to a less than inspiring open – DJIA -21pts, S&P -2.2pts.
With the geo-political scene immersed in what is looking like the beginning-of-the-end-game vis-à-vis the Iranian nuclear issue (Hillary’s trip as documented above a slight give-away) the Carnivale celebrating Brazilians have been more distracted by the furore created over the choice of a 7-yr old girl to lead the traditional parade in Rio de Janeiro. Disputes over whether a sexually-tinged role should be represented by such a young-girl dominated media there for days on end and spilled over into debates on even Fox News, where some dim-witted conservative said “nothing like this would ever happen in the US!” Really?? What about the 5yr-old dolled-up “junior beauty queens” you endlessly parade around middle-America huh? Anyway, at the crucial moment of her role it seems she broke down in tears when overcome by the pressure of leading the parade. The reason for her succumbing to the intense scrutiny at that precise moment in time a mystery to her father and many that knew her as they were confident in her ability to handle the situation. Commentators were equally saddened but then focused on the crowds filled with celebrities that had attended the festivities and spotted Madonna sitting in the stands – that poor 7-yr old girl must have thought she had come to save her and adopt her to a better home in the US and cried out of fear!
Best Rgds,
Hani
Friday, 12 February 2010
Convenient Support
Apologies for the lack of consistent market commentary in the last couple of weeks but travel itineraries have proved slightly hectic with many visiting delegations travelling-the-well-trodden-path through the Middle East - the weather around the Gulf is lovely this time of year, making for an attractive destination for a number of visiting professionals on supposedly “official business”.
As Europe plans to save Greece (and itself), Bernanke prepares markets for an end to the spending-spree at the same time as China’s figures express another surge in bank lending, Iran demonstrates against (or celebrates, depending on which news channel you are watching) to mark the Islamic (31st anniversary) revolution. The world watches in anticipation of another attempt by the disenfranchised Iranian youth to rock the ruling authority’s (increasingly isolated) boat as recent sabre-rattling has peaked (even animals have been catapulted into space!) amid worrying signs of persistent internal friction. The authorities have apparently learnt from perceived mistakes though, as tighter internet controls and preventive measures are imposed to curtail past widespread use of technology to convey opposition to the incumbent powers. Who has ended up getting the sharp-end of the stick again after a recent bad experience in China? – yep, that apparently-oh-so-evil expression of Western hegemony – Google! Might help avoid further problems for the internet-leader if Google moved its headquarters to somewhere a little less controversial – like North Korea maybe.
Car-trouble…
Bad news for another company persists and damages Japan’s once-glowing reputation as blood-thirsty Western (read: Fox news) media pounce again and again on every piece of PR damaging Toyota woes, delivering mighty blows to once-stuff-of-legendary-quality Toyota processes - tarnishing the world’s largest car-company. Toyota seemingly forgot to check the blind-spot when changing lanes, causing a collision of immensely significant negative repercussion. Tales of deaths caused by faulty/shoddy manufacturing striking deep into the proud mindset of corporate Japan. Disaster mitigation will dictate a difficult time ahead for the company in the short-term, as recalls and safety-aware buyers pick other manufacturers. Amazing how things can change. Even implying that a Toyota was not of immaculate construction just a year ago was akin to denouncing a Big Mac as “tasteless”. Then again, McDonald’s suffered its own moment of near-path-to-destruction a few years back amidst a health-driven dramatic fall in sales, so it seems the mightiest do indeed fall the hardest. Hopes are that Japan’s well-documented and less than swift to address-internal-issues culture does not get in the way of Toyota re-accelerating away from a potentially destructive stall.
Where’s the return?
As discussed in January, these markets are providing a slight case of indigestion for those expecting much simpler-softer times after the incredible events of 2009. Without exception, every major developed market is posting a disappointingly negative YTD return (avg -5%), with the normally smile-inducing emerging markets adding to the losing team performance (Chile the only star in all Latin America etching out +4.7%). Where have things gone wrong? They haven’t really. This was expected after the fatigue inducing non-stop rally of 2009. The dips are the best times to get back in. Risk appetite has waned, expressed by the rise of the US$ (Cable 1.56, Eur/USD 1.37) as Gold ($1,078/oz and Oil ($75/brl) have both stabilised as investors remain unsure how the rest of the year’s “recovery” will pan-out. Emotional responses to uncertainty across global market recovery and a general lack of consensus prevailing at present. Sticky and frankly difficult markets are most likely to continue until the next major positive catalyst that will again express itself in the form of a rebound in employment. Until then, these markets remain the domain of day traders and ulcer-immune investors.
Paying-for-it…
On a sadder note, read that the affable (if you like partying) US congressman Charlie Wilson passed away yesterday. His life was chronicled in a recent Hollywood movie, describing his prime role in financing the covert war in Afghanistan in the 1980s to repel Soviet forces through funding of the well(US)-armed Mujahideen (modern day Taliban). So much could be written about how the US often repeats its mistakes in backing a certain group of people when in their interests to do so, only to then ignore their basic demands and requirements when no longer ‘strategically” important to them. With the latest set of events in Iran and undoubtedly an underlying level of support against the incumbent powers from US and Western influences, mistakes being learnt from lessons past is high on the agenda again.
Best Rgds,
Hani
As Europe plans to save Greece (and itself), Bernanke prepares markets for an end to the spending-spree at the same time as China’s figures express another surge in bank lending, Iran demonstrates against (or celebrates, depending on which news channel you are watching) to mark the Islamic (31st anniversary) revolution. The world watches in anticipation of another attempt by the disenfranchised Iranian youth to rock the ruling authority’s (increasingly isolated) boat as recent sabre-rattling has peaked (even animals have been catapulted into space!) amid worrying signs of persistent internal friction. The authorities have apparently learnt from perceived mistakes though, as tighter internet controls and preventive measures are imposed to curtail past widespread use of technology to convey opposition to the incumbent powers. Who has ended up getting the sharp-end of the stick again after a recent bad experience in China? – yep, that apparently-oh-so-evil expression of Western hegemony – Google! Might help avoid further problems for the internet-leader if Google moved its headquarters to somewhere a little less controversial – like North Korea maybe.
Car-trouble…
Bad news for another company persists and damages Japan’s once-glowing reputation as blood-thirsty Western (read: Fox news) media pounce again and again on every piece of PR damaging Toyota woes, delivering mighty blows to once-stuff-of-legendary-quality Toyota processes - tarnishing the world’s largest car-company. Toyota seemingly forgot to check the blind-spot when changing lanes, causing a collision of immensely significant negative repercussion. Tales of deaths caused by faulty/shoddy manufacturing striking deep into the proud mindset of corporate Japan. Disaster mitigation will dictate a difficult time ahead for the company in the short-term, as recalls and safety-aware buyers pick other manufacturers. Amazing how things can change. Even implying that a Toyota was not of immaculate construction just a year ago was akin to denouncing a Big Mac as “tasteless”. Then again, McDonald’s suffered its own moment of near-path-to-destruction a few years back amidst a health-driven dramatic fall in sales, so it seems the mightiest do indeed fall the hardest. Hopes are that Japan’s well-documented and less than swift to address-internal-issues culture does not get in the way of Toyota re-accelerating away from a potentially destructive stall.
Where’s the return?
As discussed in January, these markets are providing a slight case of indigestion for those expecting much simpler-softer times after the incredible events of 2009. Without exception, every major developed market is posting a disappointingly negative YTD return (avg -5%), with the normally smile-inducing emerging markets adding to the losing team performance (Chile the only star in all Latin America etching out +4.7%). Where have things gone wrong? They haven’t really. This was expected after the fatigue inducing non-stop rally of 2009. The dips are the best times to get back in. Risk appetite has waned, expressed by the rise of the US$ (Cable 1.56, Eur/USD 1.37) as Gold ($1,078/oz and Oil ($75/brl) have both stabilised as investors remain unsure how the rest of the year’s “recovery” will pan-out. Emotional responses to uncertainty across global market recovery and a general lack of consensus prevailing at present. Sticky and frankly difficult markets are most likely to continue until the next major positive catalyst that will again express itself in the form of a rebound in employment. Until then, these markets remain the domain of day traders and ulcer-immune investors.
Paying-for-it…
On a sadder note, read that the affable (if you like partying) US congressman Charlie Wilson passed away yesterday. His life was chronicled in a recent Hollywood movie, describing his prime role in financing the covert war in Afghanistan in the 1980s to repel Soviet forces through funding of the well(US)-armed Mujahideen (modern day Taliban). So much could be written about how the US often repeats its mistakes in backing a certain group of people when in their interests to do so, only to then ignore their basic demands and requirements when no longer ‘strategically” important to them. With the latest set of events in Iran and undoubtedly an underlying level of support against the incumbent powers from US and Western influences, mistakes being learnt from lessons past is high on the agenda again.
Best Rgds,
Hani
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)