I write, therefore I am
(www.hanikobrossi.blogspot.com)
Should one laugh with exasperation, or cry out of despair, on being faced with a return to the world situation from a writing perspective and finding all too clearly that “plus ca change…” Laughter would be the recommended choice. Tears should not be wasted on such a pathetic bunch of current global “leaders”.
So where are we right now? Well, Europe is still a total mess - am I reaaallly still writing about the diabolical Greek default almost two years after first muttering jokes of tragedies and over-cooked kebabs? -Obama has been all but declared a failure, not least by the Republican tactic of unfortunately treating him as an “invisible President” – with full racial undertones prevailing, China is rolling economically and socially forwards with unrelenting confidence (GDP growth +8.9% this yr, 7.8% 2012!) , overcoming hiccups here and there either through sheer determination or violent oblivion depending on your viewpoint, the Middle East is grappling with variously consistent rumblings of discontent as well as the sobering reality of re-creating entire political frameworks pursuant to revolution-euphoria-high-comedowns, unsuspecting traders are still destroying once stable and revered banking reputations in what will cost UBS $2.3bn for lack of adequate control (expensive mistake) and last but not least, Berlusconi is still partying whilst watching his nation’s debt reach near-junk-status. Too much pink-champagne for his friends, but real-pain for the sham-economy. Old Silvio albeit upstaged by the new lothario-champion, “not-guilty-your-honour-DSK” admitting overnight that he may have made “a-mistake” – hmmm, what a shame he won’t be the next French President. Pathetic bunch.
To Exist or Not To Exist
The most pressing matter for many Middle-Eastern political observers this week will be the Palestinian statehood saga. The Palestinians are due to table a motion for full UN membership for their, desired, independent state. Surprisingly the US (hold your breath) has said she will veto the move (why must the power of the veto always be declared long-before the draw? – ruins the dramatic impact).
Predictability aside, this move poses a serious conundrum for several of the UN Security Council. Polls and research are pointing to a majority support for the Palestinian motion. The US’s veto, no doubt influenced by powerful groups (AIPAC anyone?) chiding Congress back home, will expose fundamental flaws in hot-air-talk of peace plans and road-maps-to-nowhere reconciliation. Israel herself is being backed into an increasingly awkward corner. Faced with the prospect of refusing the Palestinians exactly what she herself existentially seeks, Israel inevitably moves further into the international black-spotlight. Zero aspiration for flexible negotiation, coupled with a history of less-than-accepting perceptions of frailty, make for another increasingly likely scenario in which Israel fights her way out of that corner…and boy can she punch hard.
Thinking…
Much has already been written about the potential consequences and arguments made for and against the matter (the FT had an excellent article over the weekend in the commentary section), but I see it as more black-and-white than most maybe.
Descartes famously uttered...”I think, therefore I am” . Deep-stuff no doubt my philosophical maestro, but merely thinking right now about an issue is not a solution. The Israelis seem to adopt a “we survive by doing what we must, therefore we are” approach to negotiation, the Palestinians “we-do-what-we-can in a futile situation, therefore we should be” and the rest of the region muddle through half-hearted attempts at forging a new existence through louder voices and more boisterous involvement in their own fates – about time.
The position we find the Levant in at present is thus a question of existence. Does Israel “exist”? Do Palestinians have any chance of creating a firm “existence”? Do Syrians, starving in their home-towns and demanding leadership change, “exist” in the eyes of their desperately clinging-on President? Will Iran’s influence across the Middle-East crescent “exist” if its theological followers are no longer aggressing towards a common target? Add into this mix of pondering, a flexing, growing and maybe overly-confident, then again maybe not given its economic strength and de-facto agreement of regional dominance/stability by the US, Turkey and you get history’s favourite recipe…a volatile time-bomb. What’s the solution? Well, all-out war is one. With all its unpredictability, destruction and suffering. The other, as pointed out by some smarter and cannier individuals/commentators than we could ever hope to be here, is…all-out and total agreement.
Hold on! ..I hear you all scream. Either war or total agreement?? How can that be? Well…when so many parties have so much at stake, there is usually an opportunity for smart and effective negotiation whereby disaster can be replaced by pacification and placation. In other words, money and promises of power. Iran, Israel, Turkey: all three have their own agendas dictating their approach to regional politics. Each agenda can be bought. Simple. Give a little to each and allow them to preside over their own sphere of influence, comfortable in the knowledge their people will feel stronger, richer and hence more powerful and able to “think and exist”. The US will surely be selling this…question is..will the punters be buying?
R-Word-Watching
The Economist has an ”R-Word Tracker” – whereby a record is made of the number of times the world “Recession” is mentioned in a certain number of intellectually influential publications (sadly no, mine is not included) and used to generate a chart of impending doom. So what’s in store this week? Bernanke will most likely unveil QE3 (great, another trilogy) at the Fed’s expanded 2-day meeting, Greece will likely default ahead of an upcoming EUR750m coupon payment, catalysing EU Ministers to actually make decisions and take decisive action, the Middle East will continue to boil in its own ineptitude and no doubt emerging economies will continue to expand and focus on bettering themselves. Get ready for a whole lot of chart-topping R-words.
With all the economic tension and seemingly irreconcilable animosity swirling around us, you would think that the world was once more frightened into sitting at home and twiddling it’s thumbs around a budget DVD night-in, right – WRONG! We are not witnessing the tortoise-like relapse into income-saving shells as seen in late 2008 (oh yeah, happy belated 3rd birthday Lehman!). Rather, anyone lucky enough to have travelled around Europe in either July or August, would surely have witnessed a huge increase in the number of super-yachts moored off hot-spot beaches and restaurants. And where were the lucky sailors mostly from? Mainly Chinese.
Confucius vs. Descartes. Let the thinking begin.
Comments and discussion welcome. Hani Kobrossi
(www.hanikobrossi.blogspot.com)
Should one laugh with exasperation, or cry out of despair, on being faced with a return to the world situation from a writing perspective and finding all too clearly that “plus ca change…” Laughter would be the recommended choice. Tears should not be wasted on such a pathetic bunch of current global “leaders”.
So where are we right now? Well, Europe is still a total mess - am I reaaallly still writing about the diabolical Greek default almost two years after first muttering jokes of tragedies and over-cooked kebabs? -Obama has been all but declared a failure, not least by the Republican tactic of unfortunately treating him as an “invisible President” – with full racial undertones prevailing, China is rolling economically and socially forwards with unrelenting confidence (GDP growth +8.9% this yr, 7.8% 2012!) , overcoming hiccups here and there either through sheer determination or violent oblivion depending on your viewpoint, the Middle East is grappling with variously consistent rumblings of discontent as well as the sobering reality of re-creating entire political frameworks pursuant to revolution-euphoria-high-comedowns, unsuspecting traders are still destroying once stable and revered banking reputations in what will cost UBS $2.3bn for lack of adequate control (expensive mistake) and last but not least, Berlusconi is still partying whilst watching his nation’s debt reach near-junk-status. Too much pink-champagne for his friends, but real-pain for the sham-economy. Old Silvio albeit upstaged by the new lothario-champion, “not-guilty-your-honour-DSK” admitting overnight that he may have made “a-mistake” – hmmm, what a shame he won’t be the next French President. Pathetic bunch.
To Exist or Not To Exist
The most pressing matter for many Middle-Eastern political observers this week will be the Palestinian statehood saga. The Palestinians are due to table a motion for full UN membership for their, desired, independent state. Surprisingly the US (hold your breath) has said she will veto the move (why must the power of the veto always be declared long-before the draw? – ruins the dramatic impact).
Predictability aside, this move poses a serious conundrum for several of the UN Security Council. Polls and research are pointing to a majority support for the Palestinian motion. The US’s veto, no doubt influenced by powerful groups (AIPAC anyone?) chiding Congress back home, will expose fundamental flaws in hot-air-talk of peace plans and road-maps-to-nowhere reconciliation. Israel herself is being backed into an increasingly awkward corner. Faced with the prospect of refusing the Palestinians exactly what she herself existentially seeks, Israel inevitably moves further into the international black-spotlight. Zero aspiration for flexible negotiation, coupled with a history of less-than-accepting perceptions of frailty, make for another increasingly likely scenario in which Israel fights her way out of that corner…and boy can she punch hard.
Thinking…
Much has already been written about the potential consequences and arguments made for and against the matter (the FT had an excellent article over the weekend in the commentary section), but I see it as more black-and-white than most maybe.
Descartes famously uttered...”I think, therefore I am” . Deep-stuff no doubt my philosophical maestro, but merely thinking right now about an issue is not a solution. The Israelis seem to adopt a “we survive by doing what we must, therefore we are” approach to negotiation, the Palestinians “we-do-what-we-can in a futile situation, therefore we should be” and the rest of the region muddle through half-hearted attempts at forging a new existence through louder voices and more boisterous involvement in their own fates – about time.
The position we find the Levant in at present is thus a question of existence. Does Israel “exist”? Do Palestinians have any chance of creating a firm “existence”? Do Syrians, starving in their home-towns and demanding leadership change, “exist” in the eyes of their desperately clinging-on President? Will Iran’s influence across the Middle-East crescent “exist” if its theological followers are no longer aggressing towards a common target? Add into this mix of pondering, a flexing, growing and maybe overly-confident, then again maybe not given its economic strength and de-facto agreement of regional dominance/stability by the US, Turkey and you get history’s favourite recipe…a volatile time-bomb. What’s the solution? Well, all-out war is one. With all its unpredictability, destruction and suffering. The other, as pointed out by some smarter and cannier individuals/commentators than we could ever hope to be here, is…all-out and total agreement.
Hold on! ..I hear you all scream. Either war or total agreement?? How can that be? Well…when so many parties have so much at stake, there is usually an opportunity for smart and effective negotiation whereby disaster can be replaced by pacification and placation. In other words, money and promises of power. Iran, Israel, Turkey: all three have their own agendas dictating their approach to regional politics. Each agenda can be bought. Simple. Give a little to each and allow them to preside over their own sphere of influence, comfortable in the knowledge their people will feel stronger, richer and hence more powerful and able to “think and exist”. The US will surely be selling this…question is..will the punters be buying?
R-Word-Watching
The Economist has an ”R-Word Tracker” – whereby a record is made of the number of times the world “Recession” is mentioned in a certain number of intellectually influential publications (sadly no, mine is not included) and used to generate a chart of impending doom. So what’s in store this week? Bernanke will most likely unveil QE3 (great, another trilogy) at the Fed’s expanded 2-day meeting, Greece will likely default ahead of an upcoming EUR750m coupon payment, catalysing EU Ministers to actually make decisions and take decisive action, the Middle East will continue to boil in its own ineptitude and no doubt emerging economies will continue to expand and focus on bettering themselves. Get ready for a whole lot of chart-topping R-words.
With all the economic tension and seemingly irreconcilable animosity swirling around us, you would think that the world was once more frightened into sitting at home and twiddling it’s thumbs around a budget DVD night-in, right – WRONG! We are not witnessing the tortoise-like relapse into income-saving shells as seen in late 2008 (oh yeah, happy belated 3rd birthday Lehman!). Rather, anyone lucky enough to have travelled around Europe in either July or August, would surely have witnessed a huge increase in the number of super-yachts moored off hot-spot beaches and restaurants. And where were the lucky sailors mostly from? Mainly Chinese.
Confucius vs. Descartes. Let the thinking begin.
Comments and discussion welcome. Hani Kobrossi
Hani,
ReplyDeleteThe world has entered a new phase of perception of risk. Most of the West has not got it yet because they are so focused on the old paradigm of country and investment risk and struggling with the mess that they are in. But basically there has to be a massive de-leveraging in US and EU or a huge inflationary pressure to reduce debts which would have negative implications for competitiveness. Whichever way is chosen there will have to be a reduction in real living standards and this painful and politically difficult to impose, which generally means the issue is fudged for as long as possible before real action is taken
Find below a good article from Jerome Booth head of research at the leading Emerging Market Asset Manager Ashmore (founded and run by my cousin Mark Coombs). Also on the same subject a recent article from Gillian Tett of the FT on risk free rate, with some comments that I made in a letter to her in response of her original article. I had not seen Booth’s article when I sent my comments in.
Whilst there is much pain for the incumbents in Western finance as we are seeing, there is great opportunity and an acceleration of the passing to a new world economic order for those with dynamic growing economies and low private and public debt, so long as they do not make the same mistakes that were made in the period 1998-2008 by Euro zone and US.
The super yachts around Ibiza and the Swedish archipelago suggest things are still pretty good for the Europeans. Why lift a finger the save those Greeks? This is how Japan become Japan after the great crash. Things were still very comfortable. why do something radical? Unemployment peaked at just 5% so the Japanese were obviously happy wallowing in their debt. As are the Europeans right now. Here comes another lost decade.
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