Was on the road for a few days, lots happening out there so let’s have a quick look at a broad spectrum…
Drive-to-recovery…
You know Dubai is back when the driving descends into absolute chaos and patience on the roads simply gives way to all-out aggression and an absolute lack of regard and politeness towards others. When the proverbial hit the fan in this city, drivers almost subconsciously colluded and increased levels of consideration for fellow drivers in a significant manner – so much so that it was shocking to witness coach and lorry drivers (not to mention a few locals even here and there) doing the unthinkable and indicating before changing lanes!
Well, I can safely declare that those community-like days are over. In an almost instantaneous shift, not only is the city busier and livelier than any other time since the start of the year, but unfortunately manners appear to have disintegrated in a deluge of freshly-arrived and newly egotistical ex-pats (the locals are just as bad as ever) – evidently they have not learnt anything from those that came before them, as they barge their way around and offer no sense of humbleness nor humility as expressed in their lack of civility (and a huge lack of skill) behind the wheel. Am calling it here, Dubai’s revival is on the way, albeit with some nasty side-effects – and those boozey nights at Barasti and free-for-all champagne-brunches haven’t even been mentioned yet.
Chip-Chip Away!
A crucial step on the long road – could it be newly-Nobel-anointed-peacemaker-extraordinaire Obama’s healthcare bill passing the first of many hurdles (with the help of one swing-happy Republican senator) or are we talking about Intel’s earnings as they rocket through expectations to deliver a strongly positive message and set us on course for a consumer recovery. US 3rd quarter earnings are in full swing, with most trepidation still surrounding the consumer-loans-vulnerable financial institutions, but with releases like China’s exports falling the least in almost a year and shipping rates staging something of a surge (too little too late though having missed the Xmas rush), and our favourite “wear-me-or-melt-me” Gold rising to another record high (there’ll be plenty of those as US$ continues its slide), now rising above $1,064/oz, in addition to a surprisingly welcome and resilient attitude across global markets, with again the emerging economies leading the way (Vietnam now almost doubling year-to-date, with Brazil powering ahead to +130% in the same period!) the 2009 finishing line firmly in sight providing a visibly attainable and all-important-profitable year.
So confident is the vibe around investors and policy-makers at present (even the UK’s jobless rate has risen at its lowest level in a year – yep I know, that’s as good as it gets for the UK right now) that bankers are happily discussing decent bonus packages, one year on from worries that the entire industry would be sacrificed at the hands of angry savers and investors, faced with prospects of even near-record pay-outs – the government’s plan has certainly worked as intended. The lag between media announcements about “bumper-pay” and what will surely be a backlash so soon after the troubles, a mere formality.
On the chipset front, long-highlighted as a leading indicator alongside similar barometers such as the BDIY and other more touchy-feely numbers to look towards, the real strength is not the return of the shocked US-consumer, but the powering ahead of south-east Asian economies and their exceptionally well-run technology firms. Taiwan, Singapore and Korea account for a large majority (65%) of all production, with Intel of course by far and away the leading manufacturer for the all important PC-market. The real demand has come from emerging economies though, where ownership levels provide room for growth, and upgrades are a boom to profit-hungry manufacturers eager to peddle the latest software upgrades as an absolute “must-have” which, funnily enough, requires a hardware upgrade. Paying too much attention to the chip-index as a signal of western recovery may well be the wrong thing to do – the right thing is to continue to feel great about the recovery across emerging economies, especially those emerging throughout Asia.
So, more tech-goods are being produced, and more high-tech products are being purchased. If only someone would please create a chip capable of being inserted into the (clearly-enough-space-within) brain of UAE drivers and switch on their peripheral vision that appears to have malfunctioned and possibly suppress the belief that the only way to enter a junction is with the thought “I care less about my already heavily dented car being further damaged than you do”
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