Sands of SW1

G8 or “Gee, who-ate-all-the-money?”
Markets have been all over the place in the last few days – we’ve had a lot of international G8 gesturing over the same period, but whether the two are linked at all, in terms of investor perception, is really quite unclear. What is clear is that the significant fall in the price of Oil (almost 18% in the last 10 days) has been accompanied by volatile shifts in other asset classes, affecting markets throughout the commodity related sphere as well as creating a great trading environment for what must possibly be the best game out there at the moment – trading foreign exchange.
Cable has been swinging wildly around the 1.60-1.63 level, as if it were caught in between two bouncy walls unable to escape the endless pattern – not certain what might cause the push in either direction again, but there are increasing concerns over the future of the UK economy and many visitors to the country over the last few weeks have voiced similar negative observations of the well-intentioned but ultimately misplaced emphasis on spending and borrowing to get out of a crisis created by spending and borrowing. A watchful eye on UK’s Sterling seems to be a common theme amongst the restless investing community.

Italy’s hosting of the G8 summit could not have come at a better time for those observers of international politics that enjoy a little cynicism – Berlusconi’s now infamous parties must have all been cancelled to the disappointing excited anticipation of his other 7 guests I’m sure – apparently the greatest cries of anguish though were from Berlusconi’s Italian “girlfriends” who had been looking forward to “getting-to-know” the man-of-the-moment, Obama. Barack may have a slightly more prominent issue to deal with concerning the women around him though, as his daughter was pictured wearing a t-shirt baring the well-known anti-nuclear CND logo – hot on the heels of his successful nuclear-reducing meetings in Russia. It really must be the summer press-period if a President’s daughter’s t-shirt demands more media attention at the gathering of the world’s richest nations (read: powerful) where slightly less seemingly important issues (oh, just little things - like the global economic crisis, global-warming and impending threats to world peace) will be discussed.

Sands of SW1…
Walking around London in the last few days one could not help but start wondering whether there was a potential correlation between the fall in Mid East markets and the commencement of the annual pilgrimage otherwise known as the Arabian-London-deluge. Is anyone left on the desks across the Gulf region’s financial institutions to answer incoming concerns over the fall of Oil back to almost $60/brl?

Summertime in London – when the sun is out, the birds are singing and the streets are thronged with what used to be miserable-looking-commuters suddenly airing an aura more in-keeping with those found around the cafes and clubs of the delightful Mediterranean. A strange occurrence can normally be observed - total strangers actually acting in a kind manner with other total strangers (i.e. holding doors open), white-van-men revving a little less and allowing pedestrians to cross zebra crossings without fearing for their lives, and even normally grumpy black-cab drivers chirp away merrily about how lovely everything is -that’s when you really know the city’s heatwave is getting to people.

But where are the masses of Middle Eastern visitors as mentioned above? They were conspicuously missing from the roads and pavements in and around Knightsbridge (aka Arabiatown) when the sun was shining brightest last week on a glorious two-weeks of Wimbledon-London. As the sun has retreated, to wherever-it-is it hides in London, the city’s favourite big-spending visitors have finally made their presence felt – in what is their inimitable and distinctive style. One can only surmise that the entire premise of escaping the heat of the desert summers does not normally entail the wearing of (all-year-long-worn) shorts and t-shirts, slapping sun-block on over-beached children and having to scout out the nearest location that has a working air-conditioning machine. No, visitors from the Gulf want to wear their (patiently researched and then purchased) jeans, light jackets (in a bewildering array of rainbow-inspired designs) and jumpers, not forgetting the chance to finally open that umbrella they bought while being laughed at by their friends in Mall of the Emirates.

The disappointment amongst the touring crowd was heart-breaking for some, as they refused to even venture to the specially-constructed out-door terraces of Harrods’s cafes – preferring to sit at home with their families, wanting and hoping that the clouds would return to cover London’s greying skies and the wonderful act of precipitation would ensue. For almost three straight-weeks they waited. When it finally occurred, no sound of joy could be heard over the booming thunder as the heavens unleashed what had been held back for so many days. So fast and so great was the rainfall in fact, that the very tube stations that had been in danger of being shut-down due to excessive temperatures from the heat-wave just days before, were in fact evacuated as platforms flooded. Our intrepid Mid-East visitors don’t really take the tube though.

In these economic-crisis-times, patent spending is no longer an acceptable form of posturing – but this notion seems to be placed on temporary suspension when a tour of a certain quarter of London is undertaken. The area of Knightsbridge, known to insiders as SW1, provides a bull-market-reminiscent-snap of the good-life – splendid supercars idle up and down the busy roads as their owners move from café-to-café spreading their sweet-scented-oud across the remaining masses of Londoners - surprisingly far more accepting of the gentle invaders (uhhm, and their economic stimulus spending) than previous years.

Problem is, with no one to answer the phones back on the desks in the Middle East, the very element that allows these visitors to enjoy the best of what London has to offer, continues to fall in value. Only one super-car per family next year kids.