Wat Da Trump?!

Wat Da Trump just happened?

Well..in a sentence (take a deep breath)...

A global wave of populist sentiment and media fuelled inaccuracies - obsessed with all that is frivolous, sensationalist, racist, two-faced, opportunistic and down-right false - backed by a King of media manipulation with an (admittedly) genius awareness of prevailing aforementioned popular feelings, destroyed all comers with a malicious wave of unrelenting simple-minded yet clearly effective and resonating one-liners..resulting in blocking out any true intelligent conversation and surging himself into the most coveted Western modern edifice of power, along with (some decent) family members. 

Wow, just WOW. The fear we would sleepwalk into a nightmare has happened in front of a watching and (much to blame) public confused between reality-TV and plain reality. 

There has already been much written to try and 'explain' what went wrong. Sorry..nothing went wrong. This was always the natural conclusion to the stupidity of allowing us to reach such a point from the primaries in the first place. Stoke a disassociated public with fiery rhetoric and...Trump becomes President-Elect. Incredible. I tried waking up several times whilst falling asleep in front of the bewildered and in-denial news coverage, only to find the nightmare hadn't changed and it wasn't all just a dream. Sheeezzz. 

Years of West Wing, House of Cards and a stream of celebrities playing the President appear to have numbed the perception of 'fit for office' not to mention the social-media infused blurring and downright destruction of any semblance of a line between cold-hard-political-reality and ludicrous ignorance-fuelled scaremongering. There is no one to blame but the supposed 'elitists' for not trying to nip it in the bud and kill off this hideous travesty of media manipulation. No amount of counter celebrity influence was able to help the desperately fumbling Hillary in the end. Trump had that one figured out from the start - HE was the biggest celebrity attraction around. 

Now what? Already Trump's acceptance speech expressed even his admittance that all he had been saying was just bluster. That's just great. After all that destruction and Pandora's Box of racism and intolerance irrevocably ripped open, now he wants to just forget about it and move on?? 

Well done Donald, well done. You've made it into office Tweeting your way to infamy amidst almost half the very population you now must placate.  Now they are marching against you in Chicago. You inherit a country sharply divided and a world misunderstanding what their misguided voyeuristic pleasure has now unleashed. 

We can only hope the famous checks and balances will prevail. It really won't be easy but Trump can still try to do the right thing - he may even stop grabbing for female genitalia and try getting a grip on a few of the numerous and onerous challenges he now faces. 

We are all watching and waiting. Exactly what he wanted, doesn't it seem? 

(Half)-A Nation Grabbed by the P£$$y

(Half)-A Nation Grabbed by the P£$$y

What more can one say about the entirely embarrassing and frankly obscene, trashy, low-brow, reality-TV-like yet exceptionally popular and highly-viewed "drama" of the US Election?? Over the last 18mths, I here have been lost for words. I have been guilty of sitting back, reading and watching the events unfold, rather than make my own comments known through the medium of this ("so out of date maaaaan") blog.

Yes, social media is clearly the main culprit here, responsible for bringing us to this (inevitable?) incongruous match - of serious political choice that must be made and the totally cartoon-like choices to make it from. After our first (admirably intelligent and downright decent) black American President, some have taken it upon themselves to blindly support another "first" - the first woman to hold the highest office in the Free World, the first (and hopefully) last man to spout lies as if he were in a game-show that awarded points for lies-per-minute - jeeeeez, is this the best we have? Of course not..everyone knows that..but no one seemed to care for the first 12mths of this debacle despite numerous warnings and obvious signs of what was yet to come. 

Problem is - we (yes including the European audience) seem to WANT this. Our messed-up, lowest common denominator media these days is obsessed with tawdry, repugnant, easy and non-finicky issues. We DON'T want to sit and watch or listen to serious debate. Otherwise BBCRadio4 would be the most popular downloaded App and not SnapChat. You can blame the Kardashians, so-called "reality-stars" and a race to the bottom in media coverage as much as you like, yet the finger ultimately must be pointed at the youth and supposed not-so-youthful that lap this stuff up like a hungry kitten (yes, p£$$y pun totally intended). 

Truth is, Trump hasn't grabbed any random pretty-star-struck-little young thing, he's grabbed Americans by the P£$$Y!

In doing so, he has exposed their flaws for the world to see. China and Russia can't believe how lucky they are in seeing an apparent exporter of the great system of democratic capitalism self-destruct amidst a watching public. Most of Asia do not even understand what is going on. Sure, they are used to failings of their own political elite (think corrupt politicians in India etc) but they ultimately are able to choose between relatively sober leadership contenders. 

What we are witnessing is dangerous. It is dangerous that the myth of strength and superiority the US has enjoyed since the Second World War has been decimated in so base a fashion. Is this really what the culmination of the great system of Capitalism promises for all? A choice between two characters as shady and flawed as Trump and Hillary? Wow, what a wonderful thing to aspire to, isn't it?

This near-destruction of the "Capitalism Cloud" has almost happened numerous times before but the US system always recovered with some elegance and order - think Nixon post-Watergate and the coming together of the Senate and the Congress to fix it. Now though, even if Trump is defeated with a healthy majority by the less than wholesome (or believable) Hillary - the mess that is left will echo long into the future as the balance of power continues to shift away from US democracy and US capitalism, to whatever form MUST come in its place.

Although we say we would rather not, nor admit we always do, we continue to watch with fascination, only once in a while pausing to understand how worrying the real conclusion to this "show" will be.

BREMAIN

BREMAIN loyal, decent, open and proud NOT Brexiting to shame and isolation.

When you find yourself out of class and in the playground, with kids you don't necessarily like, you stand your ground and make things better - that's what leaders and strong characters do - NOT run off and sit on your own in another playground, all alone like a weak, intolerant and ineffectual brat.

This is a vote about being decent, expressing pride, confidence and loyalty, whilst maintaining the smart option of a future choice rather than a short-term knee-jerk decision. Make changes from within, not hope and pray for changes on the fringes.  

We hope so complicated a decision, left in the hands of the people (there is a reason our great previous civilisations made decisions on behalf of the masses with representatives!) will be met with sanity and logic. Now is not the time to pander to demagogues and sensationalism. The immigration issue will come to pass, time always solves the deepest issues. Give the EU more time.

May we all BREMAIN for the sake of modern civilisation, peace and prosperity.

Better late than...

...NEVER have the markets been so much fun.

Back in September, a number of highly motivated and historically prescient investment professionals this writer is lucky to know, were quite accurate in their market predictions, leading to my earlier post to "take it all off" - no Hillary, not you..you please keep it all on.

There was one teeny bit wrong with that prediction...it was a full quarter too soon. Anyone with short positions will have sweated out most of the pre-NYE celebrations! 2016 and things have moved with quite a vengeance since then however...from a collapse in the oil price to incredible volatility and now bear-market territory for Asia stock markets, European bourses and dramatic losses in blue-chip NYSE stocks, the heady days of Central Bank largesse are being exposed for their quick-fix issues.

The biggest political factor at play here is not Trump - as much as he wishes - but the speedy re-integration of the Iranian juggernaut. Iranian oil and other GCC wide implications will continue to ripple for much of 2016. Markets will continue to rely fully on monetary easing and a seismic shift in renewable energy, tech "sobberisation" and continued innovation in industry-changing robotics will keep us all on our toes.

Previous calamitous issues (ISIS, European asylum seekers etc.) will give way for increasingly dangerous currency pressures on US$-linked economies - Saudi, HK, beware that peg, plenty have been watching the "Big Short" and are coming for you! - incredible advances in drone-technology making us all even lazier thanks to at-home deliveries in minutes..but also (hopefully) humane and civilisation improving understandings in protecting our environment and finally fully utilising alternative forms of power generation. Oh..and watch space (literally) for where the next 20yrs of super-power muscle-flexing will be best expressed.

There is no doubt we will be surprised and amazed over the next 12mths...fingers crossed it won't be by "The Donald".

September Trend - Take it ALLLL OFF

As the tans begin to fade, the memories of glistening beaches and sun-set drinks by the pool slowly morph into distant musings, familiar stresses of daily routine creep back in as easily as a long-lost friend - being back at school is horrible for all of us..even the kids!

This year's return to normal-daily-activity after our Summer glories, though, is special. Not good special. Bad special. Very bad. August's extreme market volatility and stomach-churning sell-off was but a warning shot for what is to come.

The trend for September? Take it off. All of it. Leave nothing on the table. Or run the risk of having it disappear in the turmoil to come....

More to come this week..and..oh yeah..welcome back everyone.

Hotter (Earthly) Summer Days

Bravo! Humanity, or at least one of its constructed machines, has now officially explored each and every planet in its Solar System - the "dwarf" planet of Pluto being the last on a journey that will take a probe hurtling into the outer Kuiper belt..where the Evil Empire lurks with its Galactic StarCruisers..just kidding with that last part..for now.

Back on Earth however, there is one word to describe those that currently dwell as the dominant species...Crazy - the world we live in, the prices we endure in urban centres, the death and destruction that continues on an almost daily beat with barely an eyebrow raised in the lucky Western world, insane some would say, crazy we all must. The world MUST surely be out of skew and teetering on the edge of insanity when someone like Donald Trump is allowed so much airtime in a foolish bid for the US Presidency - oh please do not let my words be remembered with embarrassment come October 2016! At least some form of near-sanity has expressed itself (no thanks to the scorn of "historical mistake" Bibi) with the tireless Kerry+5 succeeding in bringing the once great Persian people closer to a state of normality. Nothing happens overnight, yet this is a change that should bring eventual benefits for the region, if the GCC neighbours do not make a total mess of it and throw their toys out their gold-plated prams.

Despite Gold somehow not rising to record-highs given the levels of uncertainty presiding across the markets, nothing is right about the economy, nothing is right about the response we have endured since 2008.  The coolest thing to happen in the last 6 months probably the introduction of Apple Pay - tried it and it is incredibly convenient...go $1.5trn market cap!. Apart from that, US markets continue to fluctuate amidst ridiculous valuations for private tech companies, China shows us what a man-made rollercoaster really looks like, Europe drowns in its own Greek waters (awaiting British roars of disapproval now its money may be on the "lending" line too) and the best looking potential return emanates from what was once considered the "lost" continent of Africa. Go growth!

It has been mentioned on this blog a few times but it cannot be overstated: we have witnessed one of the greatest thefts of recent human history...right in front our PR-celeb-loving-blatant-distraction-by-social-media eyes...the blatant eradication of an entire movement of people through wanton assimilation of (for some) horrible levels of wealth in the hands of the few. This has left the masses to (almost) begin fighting for the scraps (€60 a day in Greece), even amidst supposedly the "wealthier and luckier" few. Not even Osborne's changes to London's offshore non-dom-res status will eventually make much of a dent in the blatant freedom of wealth creation the connected few enjoy.

Major cities across this great world we inhabit are experiencing unprecedented levels of Picketty-recorded disparity. Problem is..those that have not enjoyed a rise to the top are allowing those already there to get away with it, even celebrating their status and revelling with near-desperate glee in their secondary hand-outs. Desperados. What the hell happened to that brief moment of shame and austerity we all felt we must endure to repent for our evil ways during 2006-2008?? Just because a lucky few started putting their pictures onto Insta-lust-agram and felt good about how bad everyone else did, is not reason enough for others to think it is okay too!

All that is wrong with the world is being pushed as right and all that is right being cowed and frightened into the corners of society once reserved for the truly weird. We are undergoing an extremely sad transformation. Many know it but do not admit it. I am happy to write about it. Enough is enough. People should not be embarrassed into feeling politically incorrect and (oh dear God no) offend some group or another with a massive media presence (yes, you "movements" know who you are) or tree-hugging-do-gooders who then go home and stick on the kettle, oblivious to the origins and realities of their daily energy-consuming routines. Speak your mind people. Confront. Get it out. Negligent mass pacifism leads to disaster..study 1890-1914 and reel in the horror of realisation.

Summer is truly upon us. We take time to enjoy quality conversation with our loved-ones, laze around the pool with family and friends, discuss where we have come from and where we may be going. The majority will do this with their faces glued to a phone, a barrier to the realism of face-to-face conversation, cause for much of the woes of humans being out of touch with humanity. Who knows, maybe that probe hurtling at 50,000km/second is speeding away to bring news of something  Alien we can all truly talk about. Selfie with the outer-world visitor anyone? Crazy to think about it? Nothing on this world would surprise me now.

Hot Summer Days

There's a certain heat emanating from the Southern European states. As July nears an end and the what-do-I-do-now month of August edges closer, the normal screams of delight begin their return, as families thrash around in the cooling water of the Mediterranean and others splash themselves down with chilled Rosé.

Will those screams remain expressions of long lazy Summers, or risk taking a turn down the wrong path of frustration, despair and eventually hot, smouldering, unbridled anger?..screaming all the way to government opposition, civil unrest and (never say never) military action to quell a total collapse into chaos.

The European mess that has brewed since 2008 (papering over the problem year after year), China's recent and really quite frightening market meltdown (swings of +75% and -80%!), now controlled only with the most draconian of moves by the shell-shocked Xi-Li ruling partnership, in addition to the Middle Eastern uncertainty over the meaning of an Iranian-US "agreement", leaves us all in a tenaciously touchy and ridiculously terse position of anxiety-inducing palpitation. Not quite what Summer holidays should be about.

There will be trouble ahead..not talking about the pain (oh gosh) of poor stressed-out-normally-London-dwelling-sun-seekers having to carry wads of cash around the Cyclades with them..but pure, undiluted and extremely potent historical hatreds resurrecting through the fraction lines of old and new Europe.

We will investigate more this week....