Inaugurate...

We made it! Phew..for a few weeks there it appeared Trumpy Dumpy would NEVER leave...like being unable to awaken from a terrible nightmare, filled with fear, sweat and a truly terrifying clown with an awful wig and horrible orange make-up - truly the stuff of horror!

Of course there are huge implications that will remain from his destructive "experiment" in office, with a real and pervasive risk of a violent schism in US society at the forefront of these dangerous elements unleashed over the last 4yrs. 

However, for now, we must take solace in the hopeful rebirth of a more forgiving, gentle and DECENT nation, with the inauguration of Biden - a representative for all the people of not only America but a representative of mostly moral individuals across the world, upholding the very elements of civilisation that have brought this species to where we are today.

Let us enjoy this moment, for the truly hard-work begins the second the relief evaporates. 

Bi-Den Trump Dumpy

The President-Elect has been announced. Well done Joe Biden! Well done. and THANK GOD we will see the back of that "man" Trump - even more so his ridiculously inept and self-entitled family and surrounding cronies. So the USA has decided. Finally. Unless you are watching Fox News that is, where they are refusing to called President-Elect Biden the "President-Elect"!

Hope we have all learnt something these last 4yrs. No time to go through the list here now, not enough energy to type for that long after 4 days watching CNN/Sky News/BBC repeating themselves ad nauseam during the slow "every vote counts" count. We hopefully have learnt to be accurate in statements, truthful and that just because you say something doesn’t make it true. Just watch Trump’s pathetic conference from last night. The facts are there for all to see.

We will not accept false statements (we never should allow falsehoods anyway) and neither have a large electoral majority of the USA! Thank God!

LONG LIVE DECENCY AND HONESTY

Now is the right time to once again show love and enable integrity to prevail. Especially amidst the educated classes as yourselves. It is everyone's responsibility to be a leading light for the rest and never allow such an aberration of global leadership nor forget the importance and need of the ability to soothe and repair through dialogue and calm, with fair discourse, rather than obliterate and destroy by spewing lies and inaccurate statements filled with nothing but evil spite and evil convulsions intended to divide.

It is not about supporting one against the other, it is about attempting to ensure the facts are always prevalent and not lost in the sound and hatred that can engulf it when hijacked by dangerous ‘leaders’ like the ‘man’ that is desperately acting out as he faces defeat.

Good has almost prevailed. The immense sense of relief that people have felt at knowing these last 4yrs are coming to an end are proof enough.

We wait and watch with glad anticipation. The change many of us have been waiting for has finally arrived. Bring it on!

Vaccine, Vaccine, Vaccine (CoronaVirus - The Return!)

"Vaccine Vaccine Vaccine. Simple. Elegant. Seemingly impossible to imagine at this difficult and frustrating moment in time".

...this was wayyyyy (seems it no?) back in May...has anything changed? Wellll...No. We now know a little more about the Virus but still have no easy solution to stopping it. We now have some more expertise on how to treat it, yet deaths continue to rise. We now know how to cease its exponential spread, yet you would think people galavanting around the streets of Central London simply do not care, or somehow have missed the realms of 24hr-News coverage advice. Oh, and we still have an idiot in the White House.

Many questions of culture, civilisation, simple understanding and intelligence come to mind when witnessing some of the truly incredulous stupidity to be found throughout patches of society..not only in London but across the most cosmopolitan and seemingly advanced urban areas in the world. Talk of deploying the military in certain countries to ensure citizens adhere to restrictions and advice is testament to the inability of sections of the population to follow literally the simplest instructions - wash your hands, wear your mask...I mean come on..how hard is it really?

Honestly..with what has been on display throughout the various cities and towns across Europe and the US, it comes as no surprise the hard work and "sacrifices" (really?) made during lockdown earlier this year have had f-all effect on dealing with the Coronavirus spread...and..wait a minute..no Asia is not included in this..why you ask?..well because they are somehow more caring and cognisant of their own fellow inhabitants and apparently find it easier to listen to and follow simple, common sense recommendations and directions. Sure, they have not defeated Coronavirus and it will likely remain an issue that must be dealt with for many months to come, yet they have successfully stifled the spread and are seemingly fully on top of any outbreaks. 

Some will yell and decry that the vast difference in population numbers between countries like France, Spain and the likes of Singapore/Taiwan make for unreasonable comparisons...well I'm sorry..stick in there Japan, South Korea and...lest we forget, China(!)..and you simple cannot sit there with a straight face and deny that there is a HUGE difference in how our culture here deals with caring about others and even handling their own self-awareness and shame..yep that's the word..shame. People ought to be ashamed at how they have handled themselves in the last few weeks - desperately attempting to return to a full life of non-stop drinking and partying..sitting around without a care in the world as they cough and sneeze their way around Pavilion Rd..and generally ignoring (or forgetting..who knows?) the simplest rules and mechanisms for ensuring the containment of this pesky virulent foe. Forget watching children being allowed by their parents to run around the elderly as they try to walk peacefully and away from the crowds in parks and quiet pavements, it's dangerous enough just trying to walk and not have to breathe in the heavy exhaust of (totally oblivious) sweaty runners!...Keep 2 metres apart..it is NOT that difficult!

Would also have to reflect on the younger demographics of the urban areas. Translating to a worrying disregard for the elderly and vulnerable that happen to also share the same streets and terraces..at times my blood has boiled at the blatant disregard for the simplest of hygiene procedures - honestly...it is no surprise whatsoever that the apparently more hygienic cultures and those more respectful of the "whole" rather than the "individual" are making a better go of this entire dire situation. In Tokyo everyone wears a mask, no questions asked. And that was 20years ago. They practically Dettol the entire city three times a day..on any given Sunday..not washing your hands after the toilet or before eating, is akin to slitting-a-cute-little-puppy's-throat in front of a group of 3yr olds...and here...? Sad. Just sad. We should all act less selfishly, less moronic, less shameful and basically...be more Japanese. 

6 months have passed since the last analysis of this situation, and the same conclusion (literally word for word) remains...

"We will only return to normal when a full Covid-19 vaccine has been developed, tested AND widely distributed. Until then, sit back, listen to some more Deepak Chopra abundance meditations, read, Zoom/Hangout/Teamssss or whatever your eyes go googgly on first and enjoy this quieter time of life."

What Matters...

In these seemingly never-ending dark and difficult days, LIFE Matters.

This blog supports the peaceful and righteous protests in America, indeed around the world. The brutal and indisputable murder (a "hit" even?) of George Floyd by Minneapolis Police, has rightly sparked a renewed wave of rejection of endemic racism and the institutionalised corruption across the very authorities meant to instil confidence, protect and provide peace-of-mind for all citizens.

Of course, there is no place for the mindless violence and looting that has accompanied and morphed. Sure, it was to be expected - what with the levels of frustration and boredom created on the back of Covid-lockdown, the warm weather of long Summer's days, increasing frustration with "leaderships" and the visceral income inequality that has continued unabated. People do not need much encouragement to exacerbate those flames of the fire. People are also all too easily incorrectly encouraged to looting and wanton destruction by nefarious organisations - always keen and ready to exacerbate situations to their our ends.

No matter what the mitigating circumstances however, allowing a devolution of a morally water-tight and strong protest, does no favours for the long-term game. For true change and effective lasting legacies of uprisings, history has shown that firm principles and level-heads with strong, consistent and mainly peaceful messages, bring about the shifts in systemic prejudices required. Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela the epitome of such understanding - struggles there still ongoing but their initiation of the message echoes each day.

Unfortunately, Trump and his administration are quite good at taking advantage of these situations - rather like all scarily astute and manipulative historical tyrants.

Leadership is required on the part of the protesters. A lighting-rod and beacon for the grief and frustration of the crowds. Not necessarily one-person, a top-level consortium of voices perhaps, capable of articulating and enduring the harsh environment of hatred and seeing through the mist of anger to reach out a hand and seek solutions. No celebrities, no legacy leaders - fresh, honest and frank faces, open voices, innocent minds and souls, capable of forgiveness, cognisant of children's futures and generations needing to be hopeful and better than their own. Maybe then can true dialogue bring about enough (of course not all) shifts in attitudes to reach a critical mass and break through the walls of a sickening circle of racism.

Peaceful protest in the face of one man's photo-op requirements (tear-gassing crowds to disperse and make a route for one guy to waddle across a lawn with his sickeningly affirmative entourage) indicate difficult days to come. This is not exclusively an American issue. They might shout against it louder than most but these issues exist all around the world in various iterations - how this concludes may decide the shape of many global expressions of frustration to come.

Right now, the world watches on, wincing with every blow of the baton and cheering with every taking-of-the-knee. Let's hope this movement neither trips itself up by diluting its message through counter-productive aggression, nor is violently forced to fall-flat-on-its-face - that would be a dangerous position for us all.

Three Magic Words...

Vaccine Vaccine Vaccine. Simple. Elegant. Seemingly impossible to imagine at this difficult and frustrating moment in time.

We will only return to normal when a full Covid-19 vaccine has been developed, tested AND widely distributed. Until then, sit back, listen to some more Deepak Chopra abundance meditations, read, Zoom/Hangout/Teamssss or whatever your eyes go googgly on first and enjoy this quieter time of life.

First there was shock, bewilderment, anger and then open acceptance. A couple of months in and a few wonderful books later (particularly enjoyed the beautifully apt "Gentleman In Moscow"), we have all rationalised and identified a path for ourselves out of this crisis. No matter what we say and do, we are all in the same boat from an economic perspective - simply because nothing can get to the way it "used to be" until the vaccine is available for everyone. Or are we indeed?

No. We aren't really, be honest. There will be boats and then there will be yachts. Worse, there will be larger-than-ever super yachts of inequality. The antibody tests will at minimum create more of a two-tier global system than anything else - the younger, "healthier" and more capable of travel (should that be "more allowed") across international borders, reaping the advantages of being mobile and apparently immune to either catching or spreading the disease.

The difficulty of this two-tier world will become more apparent as the months go by. The elites will feel more superior than ever. The masses and those that likely need to be freed from the constraints of global lockdowns, resigned to longer periods of impoverishment and a difficult path of return to gainful employment.

Global media has not done much to assuage these fears. In the US and other EU nations, the vitriol and ugly rhetoric has started to gain traction, opposing news networks provide different realities of what the world currently looks like, with very different and very dangerous forecasts of where it will go.

The markets for now seem not to care. Just. They seem to be slipping today (Thursday 14th May). With fear and fingers on the sell buttons all around, this may quickly turn into a rout. Most ammunition has been used in the "limitless" war the FED and others central banks have so far successfully waged against this combatant.

Meanwhile, green shoots of Private Equity Covid-19 recovery funds (as predicted here a few weeks back) continue to gather pace. Chances must be taken. Fears overcome. The woods have not been cleared as of yet but we shall smell the clean, fresh grass of unencumbered attractively-valued-portfolios and pipelines once more.

Stay calm, healthy and happy. Vaccine, Vaccine, Vaccine. Repeat slowly and calmly with each breath. It will happen. As per our elegant protagonist in situ within Moscow's Metropole Hotel, after a delicious meal and nightcap, we will meet in person again.

Humanity - Locked Down but NOT Knocked Out

Humanity is a fickle companion, no? We cling to its most beautiful and admirable qualities - community, society, knowledge and thirst for development and all that, when purpose serves, only to turn on it within a flash or a wobble to our sensitivities.

Whilst it is certainly "human" to panic in the face of an unknown terror and lose certain civil liberties and senses in one fell swoop, it most certainly is not OK to witness the rash of idiocy and ignorant resentment a large swathe of global citizens currently display. Will not bore you with the usual repetition of such actions here, we all know what - and whom - we are talking about..every City around the world has these people.  

We will prevail. We must prevail. There is no other option but to come together and defeat this virus enemy. For now, it would appear we are in the acceptance phase of the psychological rollercoaster the entire globe has gone through. There will be more phases, not all good, yet we are not left with any other option but to overcome.

A few interesting observations of the last couple of weeks and forecasts of what is yet to come...(coming soon...heading out for my state mandated exercise now...only 36yrs after Orwell predicated such a scenario..close)

Covefey-19!

Here we go again..all those with dry powder are set to become (even) richer by 2025 (read; the titans of US PE..oh..and Warren Buffet's $128bn..lest we also forget Apple's $220bn..what about lucky Jeff with his own $100bn arsenal)

Did capitalism's supposed best representation and supporter somehow know this was coming..sending a private message out to his friends in the form of "Covid19" which somehow was auto-corrected "Covefey". Can picture it now, after a couple of Big Macs and one too many Diet Cokes..he reaches over at 3am for his trusty device..no, not that one, come on people!...and says.."Hey Siri..send a message to those suck-ups on Wall Street..group name..Dark Nights".

Hmmm..nothing surprises me about "The President" - not since the day he claimed "Ginaahh" was an easy negotiating partner..really?..how's that going for you buddy?

Markets are finally reacting as they would have been well to do over three months ago. Complacency has given way to capitulation. As if almost 12yrs of rising markets had numbed those that should have known better and remember, combined with likely 70% of the financial workforce being somewhere between 28-32yrs old and hence probably never witness to a severe downmarket. Recipe for a disaster - hold on for the ride!

However, we have been here before. We will prevail. Markets will return to record levels. The true winners will be those PE titans capable of purchasing practically any asset they so desire. The 2020 PE Vintage will likely go down in history much like the Lafites and Cheval Blancs of the legendary '82 crop...incredible and only for the rich.

Trading the War

Trading the War - Monday 1st October 2018

There is nothing worse than watching someone cause insufferable pain to their own body. The sheer trauma and experience of what one must be going through to ensure self-immolation satisfies the end result, must be so excruciating, that any alternative simply provides a lesser exit outcome, compensated only by the short-term "relief" of whatever resulting pain is replicated in another part of the body. Is there any other so saddening definition of desperation? One must surely feel for such an individual.

Or perhaps not...if that individual happens to be sat in an over-sized-leather-bound (somehow still not a Golden-Throne, for now) reclining chair in the Oval Office? That person is fulfilling a number of election promises to the US people, or someone else - hmm...please tell us already Mueller..stop teasing - with little regard for the incoming pain and suffering.

Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance dictated the ostentatious display of market wealth that would result in disaster back in the mid 00’s. Now, we have all but forgotten those days of “austerity” and had nothing but rapid growth and social-media friendly-super-sized-ostentatious spending, as well as accumulation of wealth - personally I blame the instagrammers and their enablers (read: advertising companies), those that know the cost of only "aspirational items" they probably cannot even correctly pronounce and nothing in between. 

Back to the pain - What must one be experiencing to decide it is easier to cut their nose rather than alleviate the actual problem? Given the latest salvo in the Trump-Trade-Tirade (this guy is amazing isn’t he?) there must be some serious pain being endured across the White House as we speak.

I am more interested in attempting to comprehend recent global economic necessities - China/US trade wars, tariffs, EU rate-freezes, market-IPO mania, the death of regulators, Gold miners hugging one another (do they know something we don't?), Oil acting squarely in the face of fundamentals (what's new)...even China moving to ensuring they elicit the next World War by doing what Saddam Hussein failed to do in 2003 and launch their own oil trading based in Renminbi. What about emerging markets..as the US increases rates, will anyone still want to invest in riskier jurisdictions or will we simply leave it once and for all to the Chinese, again. Will OBOR really flatten Pakistan into a nuclear-puddle of debt disaster or does the US realise it is almost too late and make up for lost time..perhaps they are slightly occupied attempting to kick-off the GCC conflict by stoking the reluctant Iranians into a confrontation with the might of US-military massively building itself-up on their doorstep in the guide of "arms sales" to Saudi+UAE. As ever, we are confronted with nothing but questions, all of which will eventually be answered, whether with discussion or aggression is the only main concern.

The reason I stopped writing was that my soul was quite literally shattered after Brexit and the Trump election victory - I know, I know..it was all “written on the wall” and we are experiencing a strong resurgence of nationalism with a sign of the times..blah…blah..but come on..where is the rationality of human logic and goodness? Have we learnt nothing from the last 6,000yrs of violence and hardship? Is humanity truly destined to continue to inflict pain on itself? Is Man as violent as we deep down believe, or are we capable of change and development? 

I really have no answers to these profound questions..and I apologise for the large number of question marks. Perhaps a sign of my exasperation and helplessness. When reading through my “blog” I am even shocked at the gradual erosion of optimism and an overriding belief in human goodness in less than a decade of writing. Are adults always doomed to pessimism? Oops, just did the question mark thing again, really sorry.

We once thought Martin Luther King (the 50th anniversary of his assassination passed earlier this year in April, he was only 39..39..most people have not even begun to fully mature before their 40th bdays) had all the answers, that we had finally succumbed at long-last to a pure, white and shining goodness within our very beings, eliciting desires of passive freedom and loving - borrowing heavily on the Zionist tales of freedom and escape from evil captors (the Jews being freed from the Pharaohs) - what have we achieved since then? False prophets abound, Twitter Trolls and Cambridge Analytica now rule supreme. Manipulation, deceit, privacy infringement, fabrication - oh how sad that we are accurately living in an Orwellian nightmare. Probably worse in fact. Technology has enslaved us. Similar to purchasing a pair of jeans in 1982 and awaiting its fashion revival (cyclicality is truly conveyed throughout nature and replicated by all within the animal kingdom) not having ever been on Facebook once saw me ostracised as a pariah and now lauded as some sort of foresight induced genius - able to understand the deeply concerning machinations of a globally connected US CIA fact book - see, I told you soooooo people! 

A presaging narrative penned by George Friedman back in 2009 (The Next 100years) has proven quite accurate with a number of its fore-tellings - none less so than Russia's renewed regional muscle-flexing, the rise of global populism, demise of oil-producing states and their politics due to US fracking etc., however it certainly feels that media pundits and a large number of “experts” are lost at sea - with little or no defining sense of the next 5yrs. Is that why they focus on frivolous matters and seem to report more gleefully the latest moves of Strictly/Dancing with the Stars - we're transatlantic darlings - happier to tussle over the immediacy of breaking news concerning butt-pinchers, anthem kneelers, lip-pouters, IOS release issues and of course, of courrrrseee, the all-important endless digestion of the real leaders in 2018...the #taggers. 

Let's hurry up, get through the mid-terms, move swiftly passed the Christmas festive season and reach the end of this year intact. Trump-willing.

Hani

Wat Da Trump?!

Wat Da Trump just happened?

Well..in a sentence (take a deep breath)...

A global wave of populist sentiment and media fuelled inaccuracies - obsessed with all that is frivolous, sensationalist, racist, two-faced, opportunistic and down-right false - backed by a King of media manipulation with an (admittedly) genius awareness of prevailing aforementioned popular feelings, destroyed all comers with a malicious wave of unrelenting simple-minded yet clearly effective and resonating one-liners..resulting in blocking out any true intelligent conversation and surging himself into the most coveted Western modern edifice of power, along with (some decent) family members. 

Wow, just WOW. The fear we would sleepwalk into a nightmare has happened in front of a watching and (much to blame) public confused between reality-TV and plain reality. 

There has already been much written to try and 'explain' what went wrong. Sorry..nothing went wrong. This was always the natural conclusion to the stupidity of allowing us to reach such a point from the primaries in the first place. Stoke a disassociated public with fiery rhetoric and...Trump becomes President-Elect. Incredible. I tried waking up several times whilst falling asleep in front of the bewildered and in-denial news coverage, only to find the nightmare hadn't changed and it wasn't all just a dream. Sheeezzz. 

Years of West Wing, House of Cards and a stream of celebrities playing the President appear to have numbed the perception of 'fit for office' not to mention the social-media infused blurring and downright destruction of any semblance of a line between cold-hard-political-reality and ludicrous ignorance-fuelled scaremongering. There is no one to blame but the supposed 'elitists' for not trying to nip it in the bud and kill off this hideous travesty of media manipulation. No amount of counter celebrity influence was able to help the desperately fumbling Hillary in the end. Trump had that one figured out from the start - HE was the biggest celebrity attraction around. 

Now what? Already Trump's acceptance speech expressed even his admittance that all he had been saying was just bluster. That's just great. After all that destruction and Pandora's Box of racism and intolerance irrevocably ripped open, now he wants to just forget about it and move on?? 

Well done Donald, well done. You've made it into office Tweeting your way to infamy amidst almost half the very population you now must placate.  Now they are marching against you in Chicago. You inherit a country sharply divided and a world misunderstanding what their misguided voyeuristic pleasure has now unleashed. 

We can only hope the famous checks and balances will prevail. It really won't be easy but Trump can still try to do the right thing - he may even stop grabbing for female genitalia and try getting a grip on a few of the numerous and onerous challenges he now faces. 

We are all watching and waiting. Exactly what he wanted, doesn't it seem? 

(Half)-A Nation Grabbed by the P£$$y

(Half)-A Nation Grabbed by the P£$$y

What more can one say about the entirely embarrassing and frankly obscene, trashy, low-brow, reality-TV-like yet exceptionally popular and highly-viewed "drama" of the US Election?? Over the last 18mths, I here have been lost for words. I have been guilty of sitting back, reading and watching the events unfold, rather than make my own comments known through the medium of this ("so out of date maaaaan") blog.

Yes, social media is clearly the main culprit here, responsible for bringing us to this (inevitable?) incongruous match - of serious political choice that must be made and the totally cartoon-like choices to make it from. After our first (admirably intelligent and downright decent) black American President, some have taken it upon themselves to blindly support another "first" - the first woman to hold the highest office in the Free World, the first (and hopefully) last man to spout lies as if he were in a game-show that awarded points for lies-per-minute - jeeeeez, is this the best we have? Of course not..everyone knows that..but no one seemed to care for the first 12mths of this debacle despite numerous warnings and obvious signs of what was yet to come. 

Problem is - we (yes including the European audience) seem to WANT this. Our messed-up, lowest common denominator media these days is obsessed with tawdry, repugnant, easy and non-finicky issues. We DON'T want to sit and watch or listen to serious debate. Otherwise BBCRadio4 would be the most popular downloaded App and not SnapChat. You can blame the Kardashians, so-called "reality-stars" and a race to the bottom in media coverage as much as you like, yet the finger ultimately must be pointed at the youth and supposed not-so-youthful that lap this stuff up like a hungry kitten (yes, p£$$y pun totally intended). 

Truth is, Trump hasn't grabbed any random pretty-star-struck-little young thing, he's grabbed Americans by the P£$$Y!

In doing so, he has exposed their flaws for the world to see. China and Russia can't believe how lucky they are in seeing an apparent exporter of the great system of democratic capitalism self-destruct amidst a watching public. Most of Asia do not even understand what is going on. Sure, they are used to failings of their own political elite (think corrupt politicians in India etc) but they ultimately are able to choose between relatively sober leadership contenders. 

What we are witnessing is dangerous. It is dangerous that the myth of strength and superiority the US has enjoyed since the Second World War has been decimated in so base a fashion. Is this really what the culmination of the great system of Capitalism promises for all? A choice between two characters as shady and flawed as Trump and Hillary? Wow, what a wonderful thing to aspire to, isn't it?

This near-destruction of the "Capitalism Cloud" has almost happened numerous times before but the US system always recovered with some elegance and order - think Nixon post-Watergate and the coming together of the Senate and the Congress to fix it. Now though, even if Trump is defeated with a healthy majority by the less than wholesome (or believable) Hillary - the mess that is left will echo long into the future as the balance of power continues to shift away from US democracy and US capitalism, to whatever form MUST come in its place.

Although we say we would rather not, nor admit we always do, we continue to watch with fascination, only once in a while pausing to understand how worrying the real conclusion to this "show" will be.

BREMAIN

BREMAIN loyal, decent, open and proud NOT Brexiting to shame and isolation.

When you find yourself out of class and in the playground, with kids you don't necessarily like, you stand your ground and make things better - that's what leaders and strong characters do - NOT run off and sit on your own in another playground, all alone like a weak, intolerant and ineffectual brat.

This is a vote about being decent, expressing pride, confidence and loyalty, whilst maintaining the smart option of a future choice rather than a short-term knee-jerk decision. Make changes from within, not hope and pray for changes on the fringes.  

We hope so complicated a decision, left in the hands of the people (there is a reason our great previous civilisations made decisions on behalf of the masses with representatives!) will be met with sanity and logic. Now is not the time to pander to demagogues and sensationalism. The immigration issue will come to pass, time always solves the deepest issues. Give the EU more time.

May we all BREMAIN for the sake of modern civilisation, peace and prosperity.

Better late than...

...NEVER have the markets been so much fun.

Back in September, a number of highly motivated and historically prescient investment professionals this writer is lucky to know, were quite accurate in their market predictions, leading to my earlier post to "take it all off" - no Hillary, not you..you please keep it all on.

There was one teeny bit wrong with that prediction...it was a full quarter too soon. Anyone with short positions will have sweated out most of the pre-NYE celebrations! 2016 and things have moved with quite a vengeance since then however...from a collapse in the oil price to incredible volatility and now bear-market territory for Asia stock markets, European bourses and dramatic losses in blue-chip NYSE stocks, the heady days of Central Bank largesse are being exposed for their quick-fix issues.

The biggest political factor at play here is not Trump - as much as he wishes - but the speedy re-integration of the Iranian juggernaut. Iranian oil and other GCC wide implications will continue to ripple for much of 2016. Markets will continue to rely fully on monetary easing and a seismic shift in renewable energy, tech "sobberisation" and continued innovation in industry-changing robotics will keep us all on our toes.

Previous calamitous issues (ISIS, European asylum seekers etc.) will give way for increasingly dangerous currency pressures on US$-linked economies - Saudi, HK, beware that peg, plenty have been watching the "Big Short" and are coming for you! - incredible advances in drone-technology making us all even lazier thanks to at-home deliveries in minutes..but also (hopefully) humane and civilisation improving understandings in protecting our environment and finally fully utilising alternative forms of power generation. Oh..and watch space (literally) for where the next 20yrs of super-power muscle-flexing will be best expressed.

There is no doubt we will be surprised and amazed over the next 12mths...fingers crossed it won't be by "The Donald".

September Trend - Take it ALLLL OFF

As the tans begin to fade, the memories of glistening beaches and sun-set drinks by the pool slowly morph into distant musings, familiar stresses of daily routine creep back in as easily as a long-lost friend - being back at school is horrible for all of us..even the kids!

This year's return to normal-daily-activity after our Summer glories, though, is special. Not good special. Bad special. Very bad. August's extreme market volatility and stomach-churning sell-off was but a warning shot for what is to come.

The trend for September? Take it off. All of it. Leave nothing on the table. Or run the risk of having it disappear in the turmoil to come....

More to come this week..and..oh yeah..welcome back everyone.

Hotter (Earthly) Summer Days

Bravo! Humanity, or at least one of its constructed machines, has now officially explored each and every planet in its Solar System - the "dwarf" planet of Pluto being the last on a journey that will take a probe hurtling into the outer Kuiper belt..where the Evil Empire lurks with its Galactic StarCruisers..just kidding with that last part..for now.

Back on Earth however, there is one word to describe those that currently dwell as the dominant species...Crazy - the world we live in, the prices we endure in urban centres, the death and destruction that continues on an almost daily beat with barely an eyebrow raised in the lucky Western world, insane some would say, crazy we all must. The world MUST surely be out of skew and teetering on the edge of insanity when someone like Donald Trump is allowed so much airtime in a foolish bid for the US Presidency - oh please do not let my words be remembered with embarrassment come October 2016! At least some form of near-sanity has expressed itself (no thanks to the scorn of "historical mistake" Bibi) with the tireless Kerry+5 succeeding in bringing the once great Persian people closer to a state of normality. Nothing happens overnight, yet this is a change that should bring eventual benefits for the region, if the GCC neighbours do not make a total mess of it and throw their toys out their gold-plated prams.

Despite Gold somehow not rising to record-highs given the levels of uncertainty presiding across the markets, nothing is right about the economy, nothing is right about the response we have endured since 2008.  The coolest thing to happen in the last 6 months probably the introduction of Apple Pay - tried it and it is incredibly convenient...go $1.5trn market cap!. Apart from that, US markets continue to fluctuate amidst ridiculous valuations for private tech companies, China shows us what a man-made rollercoaster really looks like, Europe drowns in its own Greek waters (awaiting British roars of disapproval now its money may be on the "lending" line too) and the best looking potential return emanates from what was once considered the "lost" continent of Africa. Go growth!

It has been mentioned on this blog a few times but it cannot be overstated: we have witnessed one of the greatest thefts of recent human history...right in front our PR-celeb-loving-blatant-distraction-by-social-media eyes...the blatant eradication of an entire movement of people through wanton assimilation of (for some) horrible levels of wealth in the hands of the few. This has left the masses to (almost) begin fighting for the scraps (€60 a day in Greece), even amidst supposedly the "wealthier and luckier" few. Not even Osborne's changes to London's offshore non-dom-res status will eventually make much of a dent in the blatant freedom of wealth creation the connected few enjoy.

Major cities across this great world we inhabit are experiencing unprecedented levels of Picketty-recorded disparity. Problem is..those that have not enjoyed a rise to the top are allowing those already there to get away with it, even celebrating their status and revelling with near-desperate glee in their secondary hand-outs. Desperados. What the hell happened to that brief moment of shame and austerity we all felt we must endure to repent for our evil ways during 2006-2008?? Just because a lucky few started putting their pictures onto Insta-lust-agram and felt good about how bad everyone else did, is not reason enough for others to think it is okay too!

All that is wrong with the world is being pushed as right and all that is right being cowed and frightened into the corners of society once reserved for the truly weird. We are undergoing an extremely sad transformation. Many know it but do not admit it. I am happy to write about it. Enough is enough. People should not be embarrassed into feeling politically incorrect and (oh dear God no) offend some group or another with a massive media presence (yes, you "movements" know who you are) or tree-hugging-do-gooders who then go home and stick on the kettle, oblivious to the origins and realities of their daily energy-consuming routines. Speak your mind people. Confront. Get it out. Negligent mass pacifism leads to disaster..study 1890-1914 and reel in the horror of realisation.

Summer is truly upon us. We take time to enjoy quality conversation with our loved-ones, laze around the pool with family and friends, discuss where we have come from and where we may be going. The majority will do this with their faces glued to a phone, a barrier to the realism of face-to-face conversation, cause for much of the woes of humans being out of touch with humanity. Who knows, maybe that probe hurtling at 50,000km/second is speeding away to bring news of something  Alien we can all truly talk about. Selfie with the outer-world visitor anyone? Crazy to think about it? Nothing on this world would surprise me now.

Hot Summer Days

There's a certain heat emanating from the Southern European states. As July nears an end and the what-do-I-do-now month of August edges closer, the normal screams of delight begin their return, as families thrash around in the cooling water of the Mediterranean and others splash themselves down with chilled Rosé.

Will those screams remain expressions of long lazy Summers, or risk taking a turn down the wrong path of frustration, despair and eventually hot, smouldering, unbridled anger?..screaming all the way to government opposition, civil unrest and (never say never) military action to quell a total collapse into chaos.

The European mess that has brewed since 2008 (papering over the problem year after year), China's recent and really quite frightening market meltdown (swings of +75% and -80%!), now controlled only with the most draconian of moves by the shell-shocked Xi-Li ruling partnership, in addition to the Middle Eastern uncertainty over the meaning of an Iranian-US "agreement", leaves us all in a tenaciously touchy and ridiculously terse position of anxiety-inducing palpitation. Not quite what Summer holidays should be about.

There will be trouble ahead..not talking about the pain (oh gosh) of poor stressed-out-normally-London-dwelling-sun-seekers having to carry wads of cash around the Cyclades with them..but pure, undiluted and extremely potent historical hatreds resurrecting through the fraction lines of old and new Europe.

We will investigate more this week....

Greek Flower-Power

A long-going saga that feels equal in length to the once great Empire's rule over our civilisation - now reaching levels of quite boring monotony unfortunately, the likes of which great warriors of that ancient time never imposed upon us. Greece is once again on the brink. Hello? have I travelled back to 2010..enough already..Pay up or shut up!

Seriously my Greek friends (disclaimer: there are traces of Greek ancestry in my blood, somewhere), a little less time in the Bouzoukia (famous live-music entertainment nightclubs in Athens) and more in the office! Rather than spending mind-numbing nights of "entertainment" in a large money-laundering operation full of beautifully dressed women covered in flower petals, your flashy cars parked outside and looking as if they were literally driven out of the showroom - probably were and need to be driven back soon minus -30% for a "facilitation fee"..how about tapping into what once made you that great People, pay some taxes, work a little harder, spend less time on Instagram expressing your love for Bieber and all things Greek - no, the iPhone was not derived from a Greek invention, you can't "G-originate" that one sorry!

Face the reality of years and years (still ongoing) of tax evasion, dodgey enterprises exactly like the Bouzoukia you frequent - literally flimsy covers for excessive "expense claim" based tax evasions..why on earth would someone rather pay €20 for a plate of flower petals to throw over one another than at least a bottle of champagne that can be playfully sprayed!? - and deal with an issue that your 1% have sadly forced the rest to face. That's the truth of it, no matter how many times you try to blame Merkel for forcing you into a corner. She is far too smart to give in to your nationalistic uproar and far too tough to look kindly upon the lazy Greek yacht-dwellers that initially created most of this mess.

What if I told you we could solve the Greek debt payment issue (c.€1.7bn immediately) by throwing some more flowers?  Stay with me...1 Bouzouki Flower Plate costs €20 right? On one night in Athens I personally witnessed €30,000 stupidly..ah sorry..lavishly spent on covering a bevy of excited Greek ladies dancing around some singer. So...let's throw several massive parties for the Greek Elite (yeah..you guys..classy) hiking the prices of those flower plates to €500/plate, invite nothing but scantily-clad models who just want to party, then sit back, switch on the music and watch the tight-shirted Greek boys go berserk in the Bouzoukia. The night would require the purchase of 3.4m plates to fill the €1.7bn hole..easy peasy..HOPA!

Come on my Greek friends..grow some Taylor Swift sized balls and go out there and fight for your rights, get your act together, stop relying upon others to provide you with your own way out of a mess that was simply created by the corrupt nature of a disconnected elite and please please stop wasting so many of our articles and media commentaries on the same story..let's move on!

Hani

Corruptosapiens

Bankers mess up an entire global financial system and what's the level of reaction we get? Sorry..can't really hear you people. A little louder please. Half-hearted calls for punishments and lazy ripples of insistence on retribution carry around the more concerned global citizen-ville. Couple of old corrupt codgers mess around with football though and what do we get?.. a mightily thunderous global synchronised boom of, "NOOOO..by the wrath of Thor!!". Wow, corruption is allegedly (really Sherlock..you think?) within the midst of the most seemingly sacred of human endeavours and the entire global population goes into acute psychogenic shock! The antichrist that (for now) is Sepp Blatter has awoken a primeval monster within us all.

Mess with football, mess with the world it appears. Hold on a minute here..the last four years have witnessed allegations and confessions of near unprecedented levels of highly damaging, immoral and almost immeasurable levels of financial carnage at the hands of the filthiest bankers and traders we were silly enough to entrust with economically vital elements such as Libor and mortgages. What has been the public response and mainstream media coverage? Highly vitriolic and expressing charged furious emotion at first yet worryingly apathetic of recent. What has been the public outrage and emotional disgust directed toward these oh-so-guilty Zegna-suited criminals?..apart from a few squatters messing about in Central London and Manhattan, with one or two scapegoated individuals being hauled in front of an irate judge..a grand total of 1 (that's right ONE) perpetrator behind bars.

The entire basis of our modern existence threatened, built on excess and the spending of money we did not have, the resulting retribution is a muted open hand light slap on the backside. Corrupt practice in football? A brain-damaging knockout blow from the U.S.'s most powerful heavyweight legal force has landed right on the chin of FIFA. Priorities? Go figure.

Surely corruption rife in the once trusted slippery hands of the world's financial elite would overshadow any other acts of lesser immoral practices? Worrying about what seems less significant is common for this modern, frivolous and shallow world you might say. It is not really. Throughout history the masses have been placated and manipulated with the use of games and sporting replacements for destructive wars, allowed to unleash their inherent bloodthirst for violence in relatively controlled environments, known as sporting arenas. Coincidentally, rulers, Emperors and dictators alike have used such large-scale sporting events at times their hold on the masses appeared somewhat wobbly. From the great Gladiatorial coliseums to state-of-the-art modern stadia, our species has intricately destroyed itself through the ages, for the modest price of an entrance fee and something to nibble on.

Is corruption simply inherent in our very genetic code? Violence definitely is. One could argue violence and corruption are inextricably linked. Only today an announcement of the "first example of violence in our species" was presented from examination of two ancient skeletons (discovered a few years back in Spain and believed to be 430,000 years old) with killer blows made to the skull so similar they must have been made intentionally. An act of violence as far back as we have been understood to exist. We may have not been so simply "chosen" either. Our DNA is based on millions and millions of years of evolution (Scientologists - we haven't got time to discuss your theories right now sorry). Recent findings and studies have now begun to understand that where we once believed our particular strand of species (the humble Homo Sapiens) was unique in its time of existence and hence destined to rise to the top of the fraught evolutionary ladder, there were possibly several parallel Homo-species living simultaneously. Think about that. Violence and the presence of several most likely competing similar species. Only one survived. Yep, your thoughts have led you to the correct conclusion..we (Homo Sapiens that is) murdered our way to the top. Real-life "Dynasty" drama of our history.

Is it really any wonder then that our genetic code has unleashed itself once more? Corruption is in our every neolithic bone (every pun intended). It has manifested on this occasion in a "game", affecting our basest sensitivities. It may well be that first act of violence in Spain 430k years ago was an offside decision gone a little wrong! Clearly there is no way absolute corruption in the financial world, bringing our entire banking system to its knees and still now wreaking havoc on global nations' economies, can compete with the horror of skull bashing corrupt football officials.

Ex-Machinomics - cont'd

Amidst the storm of Libor rigging $5bn fines, admissions of incredible levels of manipulation and deceit - other than Raheem Sterling's destructive agent -  new record highs on US markets and extreme losses in Hong Kong ($20bn wiped out in a matter of hours), once more this year a stampede of green-fingered flower lovers descend upon London's Chelsea Flower Show to admire a multitude of nature's extravagant colourful creations. How different a scene from the one unfolding a short NetJet hop south in Cannes...there a crowd of camera-lens loving socialites, with little else to do than admire their own self-proclaimed natural "beauty", shamelessly hogging the limelight from the true stars of the Cannes Film Festival - the actors! The modern "celebrity-gram" once again hijacking any remaining semblance of glamour in the art world. Soon we shall be expecting a Kardashian inspired "buxom garden" - actually now that I think about it...

Rumours of an upcoming Uber IPO only the latest in a series of increasingly eye-watering tech successes. The tears originating from both joy at the advancement of convenience and development, alongside an apparent suspension of all logical valuation calculations. Tech really is a wonderful thing. Even Saudi Arabia has admitted it may well no longer use fossil-fuels itself by 2050 (a little unrealistic) instead becoming a net-exporter of solar and wind energy. Smart and efficient technology would surely make this possible, if indeed there was political and industry coalescence. Fat chance. Let the barrels continue their roll.

Tech is both scary and wondrous. Emphasised in a modern classic Sci-Fi story translated into a fantastic big-screen experience - a wonderfully rare and extremely welcome event, near-perfectly conveyed in the awesome visual and mental experience of Alex Garland's thought-provoking narrative of a sensually cunning female "robot" named Ava: Ex-Machina (Great Gatsby brought to the screen by a let's-get-loud Aussie this is not). Not only are questions raised on the very core of our humanity during this most voyeuristic of experiences, entire new possible industries throw themselves up for imagination.

Tesla is building the world's largest battery factory - storing energy efficiently is the final frontier to renewable technologies. You really think that's about charging your 0-60mph in 3secs space-machine car? Nope..try powering your entire home and all its gadgets of the future. Entirely off the grid. The biggest and juiciest gadget that we will have looks set to be an AI "assistant". Siri and Cortana already lurk on our handheld devices, stationary and relatively inept but still smart enough to begin understanding what we want, when we want it and most importantly perhaps..what we might want that we haven't even thought of yet.

Does this mean we are controlling the machine or will the machine be "suggesting" what we should be controlling? Spooky I know. Now imagine Siri in a fully manoeuvrable humanoid form. Not only able to suggest nearby Chinese take-aways, actually able to pop out and grab your food for you. Think about the incredible new "Ex-Machinomics" that will evolve from such an industry. There will be endless add-ons and purchases savvy, if not slightly morally decrepit, programmers will surely innovate. Shoulder to cry on?..done. Friend to laugh at your jokes?..hahaha..at your service. Need a sexual experience?..rent it (and feel it) in either SD or HD for 24hrs. Entire new industries will leap from once sidelined extravagant hobbies, to mainstream services with the almost limitless leisure time people will find on their hands, allowing the Machines to do most of their work.

Creating sophisticated and expensive machinery to do little more than further our own slovenly nature and selfishly increase our perceived enjoyment of leisure time? Doesn't seem right does it?..but hey..if maximising lethargy for personal elation worked for the Greeks..the Romans..oh..where are they now? There is plenty about the human ego we will never truly understand. If a former Qatari official, that became a multi-billionaire spending his nation's gas wealth, can and does buy a record price setting Picasso ($180m) which he will likely never display due to its "offensive nudity" (does he still stare at it alone in his Batman-like cave you think?), there can be little surprise when man eventually switches on the holy-grail of AI programming to serve as little more than a personal supermodel escort. I worry though...there may not be enough carbon fibre and graphene from which mass production of "PA-bots" can be constructed if the trend if still for Kardashian like backsides! At least we'll still continue to enjoy the purest form of effeminate beauty that mother nature so gloriously provides every spring. Smell those roses while you can.

Ex-Machinomics

Rare. Very. A great book translated into a fantastic big-screen experience - a wonderfully rare and extremely welcome event, near-perfectly conveyed in the awesome visual and mental experience of Alex Garland's thought-provoking narrative of a sensually cunning female "robot" named Ava: Ex-Machina. Great Gatsby brought to the screen by a let's-get-loud Aussie this is not.

Watching it before reading this piece would be highly recommended. Discussions abound across a variety of subjects from philosophy, theology, modern materialism, power, manipulation, the "self", freedom and whatever else modern man is capable of filling into a stunningly rendered landscape of simultaneous hope and despair. What struck me most was the entire new world of Ex-Machinomics that emanated from the screen and into my popcorn during the final fifteen minutes and after a re-read of the original book. I shall explain...

I will allow you a day to get your hands on Ex-Machina..and we shall then continue.

A fractured bone (temporarily) breaks the writing spirit

It has been far too long, I know.

An unfortunate "incident" has seen my left foot suffer a fracture, rendering me unable to take lovely long walks in London's almost-spring gardens and gather my thoughts, let alone begin to find the correct mood to write. Ah the little things....

So much to discuss as well: Global markets still at incredibly lofty levels, particularly tech companies' valuations continuing to defy all logic and economic expectation, ironically the world's largest company, yep our deliciously profitable Apple, is still one of the most undervalued tech companies out there, just ask Carl Icahn. $1.5trn market cap here we come, next week. Nah, just kidding haha! Next year. Am serious. As long as we do not suffer a new crises at the hands of bulgingly dangerous junk-bonds and investors retreat from taking undue risk in the seemingly futile search for yield, we may make it out of 2015 in good shape. Doubt we can say the same for the Greeks, whether in or out of the fragile-looking EU. Oh well, cheaper bills at Nammos beach always appreciated.

Japan's renaissance has continued in my writing absence and we were unable to mark the wonderful return and subsequent rise above 20,000 on the Nikkei - Omedetougozaimasu!! Abe-san's recent visit to Washington was filled with rhetoric pulling the two great nations closer, focus on the TPP agreement ultimately expressing Japan as the crucial ally in the growing "tussle" against China. Interestingly, it was only the 8th state dinner Obama has hosted in his whole WhiteHouse term. I would have been more impressed with Abe-san and Japan's importance to the US, were it not for understanding that the next guests at a state dinner Obama will offer his silky-tongue to are..yep..you guessed it, the Chinese. Ohh those clever WhiteHouse folk..stick and..Presidential charm carrot.

UK is having its own fun with the closest elections in living memory, the Conservative/LDP coalition deserves another term, yet betting terms on Cons/Lab coalition are excitingly rewarding! Fast and furious changes in the Kingdom, as Saudi princes are lined up to propel the country forwards..ahem, Ok it's all quite relative I suppose, at least they may push out of its outdated and backwards state. The continuing aggression playing out between the Sunni GCC states and Iran's new found "friendlier" status taking its toll on the Yemeni innocent, whilst the poor Syrian civilians continue their catastrophic descent into total despair. 

Even ISIS's loss of land (and oil revenue as a result) small compensation for the general sense of unease the entire area is experiencing. Shenanigans in Lebanon are resulting in some (typically) colourful conspiracy theories..the latest that Rustam Ghazaleh was trying to provide information on Hariri's assassination and hence taken out..did Hezbollah leak some info to Saad and provide whereabouts in a big-picture "let's put this all behind us" deal? Nothing the Lebanese mafia heads..oops excuse me.."political party leaders" do would surprise us. 

Those Saudi changes taking place at a blinding pace were almost as fun as the other Fast and Furious (part 7!) that saw a wonderfully accurate portrayal of life in Abu Dhabi..how on earth did Sheikh Khalifa allow that out of the cutting room!?..brilliant..leave it to a ludicrously unrealistic Hollywood film franchise to hit the Gulfie nail-on-the-head..watch it and you'll see what I'm talking about. Don't blame me for the headache when done though. 

Plenty of time on my hands as I'm not on my feet - get in touch and let's talk more.