BREMAIN

BREMAIN loyal, decent, open and proud NOT Brexiting to shame and isolation.

When you find yourself out of class and in the playground, with kids you don't necessarily like, you stand your ground and make things better - that's what leaders and strong characters do - NOT run off and sit on your own in another playground, all alone like a weak, intolerant and ineffectual brat.

This is a vote about being decent, expressing pride, confidence and loyalty, whilst maintaining the smart option of a future choice rather than a short-term knee-jerk decision. Make changes from within, not hope and pray for changes on the fringes.  

We hope so complicated a decision, left in the hands of the people (there is a reason our great previous civilisations made decisions on behalf of the masses with representatives!) will be met with sanity and logic. Now is not the time to pander to demagogues and sensationalism. The immigration issue will come to pass, time always solves the deepest issues. Give the EU more time.

May we all BREMAIN for the sake of modern civilisation, peace and prosperity.

Better late than...

...NEVER have the markets been so much fun.

Back in September, a number of highly motivated and historically prescient investment professionals this writer is lucky to know, were quite accurate in their market predictions, leading to my earlier post to "take it all off" - no Hillary, not you..you please keep it all on.

There was one teeny bit wrong with that prediction...it was a full quarter too soon. Anyone with short positions will have sweated out most of the pre-NYE celebrations! 2016 and things have moved with quite a vengeance since then however...from a collapse in the oil price to incredible volatility and now bear-market territory for Asia stock markets, European bourses and dramatic losses in blue-chip NYSE stocks, the heady days of Central Bank largesse are being exposed for their quick-fix issues.

The biggest political factor at play here is not Trump - as much as he wishes - but the speedy re-integration of the Iranian juggernaut. Iranian oil and other GCC wide implications will continue to ripple for much of 2016. Markets will continue to rely fully on monetary easing and a seismic shift in renewable energy, tech "sobberisation" and continued innovation in industry-changing robotics will keep us all on our toes.

Previous calamitous issues (ISIS, European asylum seekers etc.) will give way for increasingly dangerous currency pressures on US$-linked economies - Saudi, HK, beware that peg, plenty have been watching the "Big Short" and are coming for you! - incredible advances in drone-technology making us all even lazier thanks to at-home deliveries in minutes..but also (hopefully) humane and civilisation improving understandings in protecting our environment and finally fully utilising alternative forms of power generation. Oh..and watch space (literally) for where the next 20yrs of super-power muscle-flexing will be best expressed.

There is no doubt we will be surprised and amazed over the next 12mths...fingers crossed it won't be by "The Donald".

September Trend - Take it ALLLL OFF

As the tans begin to fade, the memories of glistening beaches and sun-set drinks by the pool slowly morph into distant musings, familiar stresses of daily routine creep back in as easily as a long-lost friend - being back at school is horrible for all of us..even the kids!

This year's return to normal-daily-activity after our Summer glories, though, is special. Not good special. Bad special. Very bad. August's extreme market volatility and stomach-churning sell-off was but a warning shot for what is to come.

The trend for September? Take it off. All of it. Leave nothing on the table. Or run the risk of having it disappear in the turmoil to come....

More to come this week..and..oh yeah..welcome back everyone.

Hotter (Earthly) Summer Days

Bravo! Humanity, or at least one of its constructed machines, has now officially explored each and every planet in its Solar System - the "dwarf" planet of Pluto being the last on a journey that will take a probe hurtling into the outer Kuiper belt..where the Evil Empire lurks with its Galactic StarCruisers..just kidding with that last part..for now.

Back on Earth however, there is one word to describe those that currently dwell as the dominant species...Crazy - the world we live in, the prices we endure in urban centres, the death and destruction that continues on an almost daily beat with barely an eyebrow raised in the lucky Western world, insane some would say, crazy we all must. The world MUST surely be out of skew and teetering on the edge of insanity when someone like Donald Trump is allowed so much airtime in a foolish bid for the US Presidency - oh please do not let my words be remembered with embarrassment come October 2016! At least some form of near-sanity has expressed itself (no thanks to the scorn of "historical mistake" Bibi) with the tireless Kerry+5 succeeding in bringing the once great Persian people closer to a state of normality. Nothing happens overnight, yet this is a change that should bring eventual benefits for the region, if the GCC neighbours do not make a total mess of it and throw their toys out their gold-plated prams.

Despite Gold somehow not rising to record-highs given the levels of uncertainty presiding across the markets, nothing is right about the economy, nothing is right about the response we have endured since 2008.  The coolest thing to happen in the last 6 months probably the introduction of Apple Pay - tried it and it is incredibly convenient...go $1.5trn market cap!. Apart from that, US markets continue to fluctuate amidst ridiculous valuations for private tech companies, China shows us what a man-made rollercoaster really looks like, Europe drowns in its own Greek waters (awaiting British roars of disapproval now its money may be on the "lending" line too) and the best looking potential return emanates from what was once considered the "lost" continent of Africa. Go growth!

It has been mentioned on this blog a few times but it cannot be overstated: we have witnessed one of the greatest thefts of recent human history...right in front our PR-celeb-loving-blatant-distraction-by-social-media eyes...the blatant eradication of an entire movement of people through wanton assimilation of (for some) horrible levels of wealth in the hands of the few. This has left the masses to (almost) begin fighting for the scraps (€60 a day in Greece), even amidst supposedly the "wealthier and luckier" few. Not even Osborne's changes to London's offshore non-dom-res status will eventually make much of a dent in the blatant freedom of wealth creation the connected few enjoy.

Major cities across this great world we inhabit are experiencing unprecedented levels of Picketty-recorded disparity. Problem is..those that have not enjoyed a rise to the top are allowing those already there to get away with it, even celebrating their status and revelling with near-desperate glee in their secondary hand-outs. Desperados. What the hell happened to that brief moment of shame and austerity we all felt we must endure to repent for our evil ways during 2006-2008?? Just because a lucky few started putting their pictures onto Insta-lust-agram and felt good about how bad everyone else did, is not reason enough for others to think it is okay too!

All that is wrong with the world is being pushed as right and all that is right being cowed and frightened into the corners of society once reserved for the truly weird. We are undergoing an extremely sad transformation. Many know it but do not admit it. I am happy to write about it. Enough is enough. People should not be embarrassed into feeling politically incorrect and (oh dear God no) offend some group or another with a massive media presence (yes, you "movements" know who you are) or tree-hugging-do-gooders who then go home and stick on the kettle, oblivious to the origins and realities of their daily energy-consuming routines. Speak your mind people. Confront. Get it out. Negligent mass pacifism leads to disaster..study 1890-1914 and reel in the horror of realisation.

Summer is truly upon us. We take time to enjoy quality conversation with our loved-ones, laze around the pool with family and friends, discuss where we have come from and where we may be going. The majority will do this with their faces glued to a phone, a barrier to the realism of face-to-face conversation, cause for much of the woes of humans being out of touch with humanity. Who knows, maybe that probe hurtling at 50,000km/second is speeding away to bring news of something  Alien we can all truly talk about. Selfie with the outer-world visitor anyone? Crazy to think about it? Nothing on this world would surprise me now.

Hot Summer Days

There's a certain heat emanating from the Southern European states. As July nears an end and the what-do-I-do-now month of August edges closer, the normal screams of delight begin their return, as families thrash around in the cooling water of the Mediterranean and others splash themselves down with chilled Rosé.

Will those screams remain expressions of long lazy Summers, or risk taking a turn down the wrong path of frustration, despair and eventually hot, smouldering, unbridled anger?..screaming all the way to government opposition, civil unrest and (never say never) military action to quell a total collapse into chaos.

The European mess that has brewed since 2008 (papering over the problem year after year), China's recent and really quite frightening market meltdown (swings of +75% and -80%!), now controlled only with the most draconian of moves by the shell-shocked Xi-Li ruling partnership, in addition to the Middle Eastern uncertainty over the meaning of an Iranian-US "agreement", leaves us all in a tenaciously touchy and ridiculously terse position of anxiety-inducing palpitation. Not quite what Summer holidays should be about.

There will be trouble ahead..not talking about the pain (oh gosh) of poor stressed-out-normally-London-dwelling-sun-seekers having to carry wads of cash around the Cyclades with them..but pure, undiluted and extremely potent historical hatreds resurrecting through the fraction lines of old and new Europe.

We will investigate more this week....

Greek Flower-Power

A long-going saga that feels equal in length to the once great Empire's rule over our civilisation - now reaching levels of quite boring monotony unfortunately, the likes of which great warriors of that ancient time never imposed upon us. Greece is once again on the brink. Hello? have I travelled back to 2010..enough already..Pay up or shut up!

Seriously my Greek friends (disclaimer: there are traces of Greek ancestry in my blood, somewhere), a little less time in the Bouzoukia (famous live-music entertainment nightclubs in Athens) and more in the office! Rather than spending mind-numbing nights of "entertainment" in a large money-laundering operation full of beautifully dressed women covered in flower petals, your flashy cars parked outside and looking as if they were literally driven out of the showroom - probably were and need to be driven back soon minus -30% for a "facilitation fee"..how about tapping into what once made you that great People, pay some taxes, work a little harder, spend less time on Instagram expressing your love for Bieber and all things Greek - no, the iPhone was not derived from a Greek invention, you can't "G-originate" that one sorry!

Face the reality of years and years (still ongoing) of tax evasion, dodgey enterprises exactly like the Bouzoukia you frequent - literally flimsy covers for excessive "expense claim" based tax evasions..why on earth would someone rather pay €20 for a plate of flower petals to throw over one another than at least a bottle of champagne that can be playfully sprayed!? - and deal with an issue that your 1% have sadly forced the rest to face. That's the truth of it, no matter how many times you try to blame Merkel for forcing you into a corner. She is far too smart to give in to your nationalistic uproar and far too tough to look kindly upon the lazy Greek yacht-dwellers that initially created most of this mess.

What if I told you we could solve the Greek debt payment issue (c.€1.7bn immediately) by throwing some more flowers?  Stay with me...1 Bouzouki Flower Plate costs €20 right? On one night in Athens I personally witnessed €30,000 stupidly..ah sorry..lavishly spent on covering a bevy of excited Greek ladies dancing around some singer. So...let's throw several massive parties for the Greek Elite (yeah..you guys..classy) hiking the prices of those flower plates to €500/plate, invite nothing but scantily-clad models who just want to party, then sit back, switch on the music and watch the tight-shirted Greek boys go berserk in the Bouzoukia. The night would require the purchase of 3.4m plates to fill the €1.7bn hole..easy peasy..HOPA!

Come on my Greek friends..grow some Taylor Swift sized balls and go out there and fight for your rights, get your act together, stop relying upon others to provide you with your own way out of a mess that was simply created by the corrupt nature of a disconnected elite and please please stop wasting so many of our articles and media commentaries on the same story..let's move on!

Hani

Corruptosapiens

Bankers mess up an entire global financial system and what's the level of reaction we get? Sorry..can't really hear you people. A little louder please. Half-hearted calls for punishments and lazy ripples of insistence on retribution carry around the more concerned global citizen-ville. Couple of old corrupt codgers mess around with football though and what do we get?.. a mightily thunderous global synchronised boom of, "NOOOO..by the wrath of Thor!!". Wow, corruption is allegedly (really Sherlock..you think?) within the midst of the most seemingly sacred of human endeavours and the entire global population goes into acute psychogenic shock! The antichrist that (for now) is Sepp Blatter has awoken a primeval monster within us all.

Mess with football, mess with the world it appears. Hold on a minute here..the last four years have witnessed allegations and confessions of near unprecedented levels of highly damaging, immoral and almost immeasurable levels of financial carnage at the hands of the filthiest bankers and traders we were silly enough to entrust with economically vital elements such as Libor and mortgages. What has been the public response and mainstream media coverage? Highly vitriolic and expressing charged furious emotion at first yet worryingly apathetic of recent. What has been the public outrage and emotional disgust directed toward these oh-so-guilty Zegna-suited criminals?..apart from a few squatters messing about in Central London and Manhattan, with one or two scapegoated individuals being hauled in front of an irate judge..a grand total of 1 (that's right ONE) perpetrator behind bars.

The entire basis of our modern existence threatened, built on excess and the spending of money we did not have, the resulting retribution is a muted open hand light slap on the backside. Corrupt practice in football? A brain-damaging knockout blow from the U.S.'s most powerful heavyweight legal force has landed right on the chin of FIFA. Priorities? Go figure.

Surely corruption rife in the once trusted slippery hands of the world's financial elite would overshadow any other acts of lesser immoral practices? Worrying about what seems less significant is common for this modern, frivolous and shallow world you might say. It is not really. Throughout history the masses have been placated and manipulated with the use of games and sporting replacements for destructive wars, allowed to unleash their inherent bloodthirst for violence in relatively controlled environments, known as sporting arenas. Coincidentally, rulers, Emperors and dictators alike have used such large-scale sporting events at times their hold on the masses appeared somewhat wobbly. From the great Gladiatorial coliseums to state-of-the-art modern stadia, our species has intricately destroyed itself through the ages, for the modest price of an entrance fee and something to nibble on.

Is corruption simply inherent in our very genetic code? Violence definitely is. One could argue violence and corruption are inextricably linked. Only today an announcement of the "first example of violence in our species" was presented from examination of two ancient skeletons (discovered a few years back in Spain and believed to be 430,000 years old) with killer blows made to the skull so similar they must have been made intentionally. An act of violence as far back as we have been understood to exist. We may have not been so simply "chosen" either. Our DNA is based on millions and millions of years of evolution (Scientologists - we haven't got time to discuss your theories right now sorry). Recent findings and studies have now begun to understand that where we once believed our particular strand of species (the humble Homo Sapiens) was unique in its time of existence and hence destined to rise to the top of the fraught evolutionary ladder, there were possibly several parallel Homo-species living simultaneously. Think about that. Violence and the presence of several most likely competing similar species. Only one survived. Yep, your thoughts have led you to the correct conclusion..we (Homo Sapiens that is) murdered our way to the top. Real-life "Dynasty" drama of our history.

Is it really any wonder then that our genetic code has unleashed itself once more? Corruption is in our every neolithic bone (every pun intended). It has manifested on this occasion in a "game", affecting our basest sensitivities. It may well be that first act of violence in Spain 430k years ago was an offside decision gone a little wrong! Clearly there is no way absolute corruption in the financial world, bringing our entire banking system to its knees and still now wreaking havoc on global nations' economies, can compete with the horror of skull bashing corrupt football officials.